Boston Red Sox: 2017 season review and offseason preview
What went right, what went wrong, and what are the top priorities for the Boston Red Sox this offseason?
There were plenty of similarities between this year’s Red Sox and last year’s Red Sox. They finished with the same regular season record, 93-69. Both teams won the AL East, which was the first time the Red Sox won the division in back-to-back season. Mookie Betts was the best position player both seasons. And, unfortunately, both Red Sox teams saw their season end in the ALDS.
There were also some distinct differences, the greatest of which was the retirement of Big Papi, David Ortiz. No player on this year’s Red Sox came close to the home runs, RBI, and all around slugging ability of Ortiz. In a year in which MLB saw an increase in run scoring and a new record for home runs in a season, the Red Sox scored 93 fewer runs and hit 40 fewer homers.
By the Fangraphs metric wRC+, which adjusts for league and ballpark effects, the Red Sox went from having the best offense in baseball (114 wRC+, 14 percent better than average) to 22nd in baseball (92 wRC+, eight percent worse than average). It was always going to be difficult, if not impossible, to replace Ortiz. Big Papi had the second-highest wRC+ of his career in his final season and hitters like that aren’t easy to find.
With the retirement of Ortiz, the Red Sox needed the rest of their lineup to step up their game. This didn’t happen. Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedrioa, Hanley Ramirez, and Xander Bogaerts were all worse this year than last year. In 2016, six hitters had more than 300 plate appearances with a wRC+ higher than 115. This year’s team had zero.
Setting offense aside, there was good news with the pitching staff. The ERA in all of baseball went from 4.19 in 2016 to 4.36 this year, but the Red Sox saw their ERA drop from 4.00 to 3.73. Trade acquisition Chris Sale brought his studliness to Boston and had a Cy Young-caliber season as the new ace of the Sox. Craig Kimbrel was the anchor for a bullpen that was one of the best in the game.
Once the season started, it took a few months for the Red Sox to rise to the top of the division. They were 13-11 in April and 16-12 in May. During this time, the Orioles and Yankees were battling it out atop the AL East, with the Red Sox falling as many as five games back. They were in third place as late as June 2, when they had a record of 29-25. Over the next 32 days, they would go 20-10 and take over first place, which they held through the rest of the season.
The Red Sox finished two games ahead of the Yankees, but it should be noted that their run-differential (+117) was significantly worse than the Yankees (+198). In the ALDS against the Astros, the Red Sox couldn’t do much against Justin Verlander or Dallas Keuchel in the first two games, losing both 8-2. They bounced back for a 10-3 victory in Game 3, but lost to Verlander again in Game 4, 5-4. The early exit contributed to the firing of manager John Farrell, despite the team winning the AL East three times in five seasons under Farrell, including a World Series title in 2013.
The Red Sox will likely be strong contenders again in 2018, but do have some areas to upgrade. Let’s take a look at what went right, what went wrong, and the team’s top offseason priorities.
What Went Right
Right fielder Mookie Betts wasn’t the top-tier MVP candidate he’d been in 2016, but he was still the best position player on the Red Sox and one of the 10 best players in the AL. One of the culprits in his decrease in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage was a .268 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). A player with Betts’ speed should have a higher BABIP. His career mark is .303. Expect a rebound in 2018.
Another player who was not as valuable as he’d been in 2016, but was still valuable, was Xander Bogearts. The 24-year-old shortstop saw an across-the-board drop in his triple-slash numbers (.273/.343/.403 this year) and a big reduction in home runs, from 21 to 10, but was solid on defense. He was second on the team with 3.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR, per Fangraphs).
In a world without Aaron Judge, Red Sox left fielder Andrew Benintendi would be in a battle with a handful of others for the AL Rookie of the Year Award. None of them came close to Judge, but Benintendi, Matt Chapman, Mitch Haniger, and Matt Olson were among the best rookies in the league this season. Benintendi had a 20-20 season and drove in 90 runs.
Another young player who had an impressive debut was 20-year-old third baseman Rafael Devers. The baby-faced kid hit .284/.338/.482, with 10 homers in 58 games. Devers was really on fire when he first joined the team in late July, but struggled down the stretch. He hit .364/.424/.727 in his first 20 big league games and .241/.290/.352 in his next 38 games. He came around in the playoffs, leading the team with two home runs and tying with Jackie Bradley, Jr. for the team lead in RBI, with five. In the series, he became the youngest Red Sox player to hit a postseason home run.
The top new Red Sox player was starting pitcher Chris Sale, who had the best season of his career. He tied his career-high in wins, with 17, and had an ERA under 3.00 for only the second time since becoming a starting pitcher with the White Sox in 2012. He also became the first AL pitcher to strike out 300 batters since former Red Sox pitcher Pedro Martinez did it in 1999.
Another starting pitcher who fared well was Drew Pomeranz. He was 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA (3.84 FIP) in 32 starts. It was good to see Pomeranz bounce back from a rough half-season with the Red Sox after he was acquired in a mid-season trade in 2016 (3-5, 4.59 ERA). On a staff with David Price making $30 million and Rick Porcello making $21 million, Pomeranz will be a relative bargain next season.
The bullpen was led by a phenomenal Craig Kimbrel, who saved 35 games with a 1.43 ERA and 126 strikeouts in 69 innings. His 49.6 percent strikeout rate was the best in baseball and the third-highest strikeout rate ever for a relief pitcher with 30 or more innings in a season. Only Aroldis Chapman (52.5 percent) in 2014 and Kimbrel himself (50.2 percent) in 2012 have struck out batters at a higher rate.
What Went Wrong
With David Ortiz retiring, the DH spot was primarily handled by Hanley Ramirez and there was a dramatic drop-off in production. Ramirez went from a .286/.361/.505 season in which he launched 30 homers and had 111 RBI to a .242/.320/.429 season with 23 homers and 62 RBI. He finished below replacement-level. Based on Fangraphs WAR, the difference between Ortiz in 2016 and Ramirez in 2017 was five wins.
Ramirez will make $22 million next season and another $22 million in 2019 if he triggers a vesting option in his contract. He needs 547 plate appearances to trigger the option based on a combined 1050 plate appearances in 2017-18. Ramirez has played three seasons with the Red Sox and sandwiched two bad seasons around one good season. He had shoulder surgery in mid-October and the Red Sox are hoping for better health and a bounce back to the production he had in 2016.
Ramirez was the primary DH because the Red Sox signed Mitch Moreland last December to play first base. For the first three months, Moreland wasn’t bad. He hit .264/.350/.468 through the end of June. Unfortunately, his bat wilted in the summer heat. He hit .226/.300/.416 over the last three months of the season and finished 12th in WAR out of the 15 AL first baseman who had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.
Catcher Sandy Leon had a surprisingly good season with the Red Sox in 2016 when he hit .310/.369/.476 that was at least partially fueled by a sky-high .392 BABIP. Leon’s BABIP dropped to .280 this season and he finished with a .225/.290/.354 batting line. He played seven more games this season but was worth two fewer wins.
At 33 years old, second baseman Dustin Pedroia had the worst full season of his career. A knee injury played a big part, as he only played in 105 games. He was still good at getting on base (.369 OBP) but slugged under .400 for just the second time in 11 seasons as a regular. Unfortunately, it looks like the knee injury will continue to be an issue into next season and maybe beyond.
The injury bug also hit David Price, who pitched just 74.7 innings. He came into the season having been a 4 to 6 WAR pitcher in each of the previous seven seasons and had averaged 233 innings over the previous three years. He missed the most of the first two months of the season with an arm injury before making his first start on May 29. He then went back on the DL in July and missed another two months. When he came off the DL in September, he was used exclusively in relief and continued to pitch in relief in the ALDS against the Astros. He has five more seasons and $157 million left on his contract (with an opt-out after the 2018 season).
When the Red Sox traded for Chris Sale, they were hoping to have a big three to rival any team in baseball, with Sale and Price being left-handed aces and Rick Porcello coming from the right side. Sale held up his end, but Price was injured and Porcello went from the AL Cy Young winner in 2016, with a 22-4 record and a 3.15 ERA, to a back-of-the-rotation starter in 2017, with an 11-17 record and a 4.65 ERA (4.60 FIP). Perhaps Porcello can bounce back like Corey Kluber did after he led the AL in losses in 2015.
Top Offseason Priorities
According to CBS Sports, the Red Sox had the 3rd-highest payroll in baseball on Opening Day, at nearly $200 million.
If you include the money being paid to current minor league outfielder Rusney Castillo and departed third baseman Pablo Sandoval, there will be eight players on the Red Sox payroll making at least $10 million in 2018. Three of those players will make at least $20 million. This team definitely lives in the high rent district with the Yankees and Dodgers.
This is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster. The salaries come from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus. For players who are arbitration-eligible, I’ve included their projected salaries, which come from MLB Trade Rumors.
C Sandy Leon, arbitration-eligible ($2.1 million)
2B Dustin Pedroia, $16 million
SS Xander Bogaerts, arbitration-eligible ($7.6 million)
3B Rafael Devers, pre-arbitration
LF Andrew Benintendi, pre-arbitration
CF Jackie Bradley, Jr., arbitration-eligible ($5.9 million)
RF Mookie Betts, arbitration-eligible ($8.2 million)
DH Hanley Ramirez, $22 million
C Christian Vazquez, arbitration-eligible ($1.5 million)
INF Brock Holt, arbitration-eligible ($2 million)
OF Rusney Castillo, $11 million
SP Chris Sale, $12.5 million
SP David Price, $30 million
SP Rick Porcello, $21 million
SP Drew Pomeranz, arbitration-eligible ($9.1 million)
SP Eduardo Rodriguez, arbitration-eligible ($2.7 million)
SP Steven Wright, arbitration-eligible ($1.2 million)
RP Craig Kimbrel, $13 million
RP Joe Kelly, arbitration-eligible ($3.6 million)
RP Robbie Ross, arbitration-eligible ($2 million)
RP Tyler Thornburg, arbitration-eligible ($2.1 million)
RP Carson Smith, arbitration-eligible ($1.1 million)
Free agents: 1B Mitch Moreland, 3B Eduardo Nunez, RP Addison Reed, OF Chris Young, OF Rajai Davis, SP Doug Fister, RP Fernando Abad, RP Blaine Boyer
Dead Money: Pablo Sandoval, $18.6 million
The Red Sox already crossed off one item on their offseason to-do list when they hired Astros bench coach Alex Cora on Sunday. He agreed to a three-year contract with a club option for a fourth year. As a player, Cora was part of the Red Sox 2007 World Series championship team. He was one of three candidates interviewed by the Red Sox, along with Brad Ausmus and Ron Gardenhire.
Red Sox got their guy. The Alex Cora era has officially begun pic.twitter.com/alVtQg8AfV
— Section 10 Podcast (@Section10Pod) October 24, 2017
Cora doesn’t have any major league managing experience but has managed in the Puerto Rican Winter League. He’s expected to be a good communicator on a team with a group of young, talented players such as Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andre Benintendi, and Rafael Devers. These are the Red Sox who will be the core performers for the next few years.
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With the manager situation settled, the Red Sox next priority will be adding a bat to the lineup. They’re one of a few teams with the money to trade for the most prolific home run hitter of them all, Giancarlo Stanton, who is coming off a 59-HR, 132-RBI season. He would be a force in the middle of the Red Sox lineup.
Stanton’s Miami Marlins team has changed ownership and are looking to shed salary. Stanton is owed $295 million over the next 10 years (including a $10 million buyout for 2028). He also has an opt-out after the 2020 season. Stanton would be an expensive addition in salary and in the prospects it would take to land him, but the Red Sox could do it.
Acquiring Stanton wouldn’t necessarily solve the problem the Red Sox have at first base. If the Red Sox didn’t trade any of their starting outfielders, Stanton would have to be the DH, which would push Hanley Ramirez back to first base. That’s not something the Red Sox want to do. Ramirez just wasn’t very good defensively when he played 133 games there in 2016.
This year’s first baseman, Mitch Moreland, is a free agent. He really tailed off hitting-wise in the second half and the team could look to upgrade there with a free agent signee like Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana. Hosmer is younger and would be looking for a longer-term deal than Santana.
Other priorities for the Red Sox would be infield depth because of the uncertainty of Dustin Pedroia’s injured knee and pitching because every team could use more pitching. They should get a healthy David Price and Steven Wright back, but Eduardo Rodriguez won’t be ready for the beginning of next season.
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The Red Sox will be contenders again in 2018, but the Yankees are looking strong, with young talent and a good farm system. These long-time rivals will battle each other on the field and possibly in the bidding for at least one of the two premier free agents after the 2018 season, Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado. What the Red Sox do this offseason will determine what they do in the future.