What went right, what went wrong, and what are the top priorities for the Boston Red Sox this offseason?
There were plenty of similarities between this year’s Red Sox and last year’s Red Sox. They finished with the same regular season record, 93-69. Both teams won the AL East, which was the first time the Red Sox won the division in back-to-back season. Mookie Betts was the best position player both seasons. And, unfortunately, both Red Sox teams saw their season end in the ALDS.
There were also some distinct differences, the greatest of which was the retirement of Big Papi, David Ortiz. No player on this year’s Red Sox came close to the home runs, RBI, and all around slugging ability of Ortiz. In a year in which MLB saw an increase in run scoring and a new record for home runs in a season, the Red Sox scored 93 fewer runs and hit 40 fewer homers.
By the Fangraphs metric wRC+, which adjusts for league and ballpark effects, the Red Sox went from having the best offense in baseball (114 wRC+, 14 percent better than average) to 22nd in baseball (92 wRC+, eight percent worse than average). It was always going to be difficult, if not impossible, to replace Ortiz. Big Papi had the second-highest wRC+ of his career in his final season and hitters like that aren’t easy to find.
With the retirement of Ortiz, the Red Sox needed the rest of their lineup to step up their game. This didn’t happen. Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedrioa, Hanley Ramirez, and Xander Bogaerts were all worse this year than last year. In 2016, six hitters had more than 300 plate appearances with a wRC+ higher than 115. This year’s team had zero.
Setting offense aside, there was good news with the pitching staff. The ERA in all of baseball went from 4.19 in 2016 to 4.36 this year, but the Red Sox saw their ERA drop from 4.00 to 3.73. Trade acquisition Chris Sale brought his studliness to Boston and had a Cy Young-caliber season as the new ace of the Sox. Craig Kimbrel was the anchor for a bullpen that was one of the best in the game.
Once the season started, it took a few months for the Red Sox to rise to the top of the division. They were 13-11 in April and 16-12 in May. During this time, the Orioles and Yankees were battling it out atop the AL East, with the Red Sox falling as many as five games back. They were in third place as late as June 2, when they had a record of 29-25. Over the next 32 days, they would go 20-10 and take over first place, which they held through the rest of the season.
The Red Sox finished two games ahead of the Yankees, but it should be noted that their run-differential (+117) was significantly worse than the Yankees (+198). In the ALDS against the Astros, the Red Sox couldn’t do much against Justin Verlander or Dallas Keuchel in the first two games, losing both 8-2. They bounced back for a 10-3 victory in Game 3, but lost to Verlander again in Game 4, 5-4. The early exit contributed to the firing of manager John Farrell, despite the team winning the AL East three times in five seasons under Farrell, including a World Series title in 2013.
The Red Sox will likely be strong contenders again in 2018, but do have some areas to upgrade. Let’s take a look at what went right, what went wrong, and the team’s top offseason priorities.