Fansided

Phillies on the Bubble

By Tal Venada |
PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 28: Pedro Florimon
PHILADELPHIA, PA - AUGUST 28: Pedro Florimon
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If He’s Healthy, Florimon Has the Best Shot To Make the Team as a Reserve. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images.
If He’s Healthy, Florimon Has the Best Shot To Make the Team as a Reserve. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

Before the team’s free agents pursue career opportunities with another organization, general manager Matt Klentak and his staff will continue to modify the 40-man roster for the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Pruning:

To get to the choicest part of anything bringing success and happiness, a qualified person with unwavering perseverance must complete a part of life’s obstacle course.

If the player’s name isn’t here, he won’t be facing a cut or doesn’t require protection with a 40-man spot. No, these ten pitchers and five hitters are the ones in consideration for 12 slots.

According to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, the Phils, for example, are keeping their managerial search quiet. Yes, the franchise has a policy of limiting information, but Philly writers have an edge by noticing local activities. However, having a detective-like diligence is more valuable because waiting for an announcement is an after-the-fact approach.

While many fans just look at the stats, Klentak views those numbers as only half of the equation. He considers their present and projected needs and their blueprint for the future. But when it comes to the players, the exec factors in their age, progress and any hard-to-find pieces. For instance, a lefty starter.

To make it easier to read and understand, I split the talent based on similarity of status. In other words, there are players with the best chance to make the team in April, those recently evaluated in the majors and ones with other considerations. But some are moving up to a higher MiLB pleateau or have useful abilities.

Since the red pinstripes have three catchers but need only two, this creates a shortage elsewhere: four outfielders including the new first baseman. Meanwhile, a reserve infielder is also a requirement because the promotion-awaiting second sacker with the Allentown affiliate will probably advance during a hot streak. Until then, Pedro Florimon‘s versatility to play in front of and in the outfield gives him an excellent shot in spring training if he’s healthy. But while a re-signed Florimon has an advantage, Cameron Perkins could also earn an active-roster spot: For them March stats will make a difference. Watch these two in Clearwater.

AN INSIDE VIEW: “MLB has become overly active, actively involved in the game, the on-the-field game. They’re trying to run the game the way they want to, and you just have to play along with it, deal with it.” – Paul Quantrill
Despite Limited Playing Time, Perkins Will Probably Have an Opportunity To Redeem Himself Next Season. Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images.
Despite Limited Playing Time, Perkins Will Probably Have an Opportunity To Redeem Himself Next Season. Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images. /

Sorting through the records of hurlers and hitters shows why a GM has directors under him to delegate the duties of reports, statistical analysis and good old-fashioned eye tests. On the other hand, this basic review lacking Klentak’s information leads to questions of production at a lower level after the 2016 mid-season break, in the first half of 2017, and due to the affect of injuries. Ergo, a maze!

Over time, the faithful have questioned the Phillies regarding the return on their trades. But no local complained after some expected right-hander Alberto Tirado to be a triple-digits closer in ’17. Who? He is one of two acquired flamethrowers from the Toronto Blue Jays still in the pipeline. Meantime, a minor leaguer with a name like Ranger Suarez gets mentioned regarding a solid performance, and some fans picture him in the Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation of tomorrow.

With the immediate future in mind, Klentak’s moves indicate righty Drew Anderson and Tirado are strong possibilities. Anderson–they say–has the best stuff in the organization, and he went 9-4 with a 3.59 ERA for the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils. As for Tirado, he started 12 contests last year with a 3.64 ERA for 59 1/3 frames with the Single-A Advanced Clearwater Threshers. But Reading switched the hard thrower to the bullpen after his promotion. Translation: The Fightin Phils didn’t need a starter at the time, the decision-makers don’t see him being a rotation arm, or they wanted to accelerate his progress with an increased workload.

With a possible seat or two in the pen, Klentak held auditions last summer for right-handers Victor Arano and Yacksel Rios. But even though Arano produced a 1.69 ERA with the red and white, he’s a slider-tossing reliever who only had a 4.19 ERA at Reading. Meanwhile, Rios has mid-90’s smoke and recorded under 2.00 ERAs at both Triple-A and Double-A, but he only finished with a 4.41 ERA for the hometown nine. Have they done enough for the GM?

MiLB Relieving Stats:

  • Arano: 32 AA Gms., 38 2/3 Inn. and a 4.19 ERA.
  • Rios: 13 AAA Gms., 18 1/3 Inn. and a 1.96 ERA.
  • Rios: 24 AA Gms., 38 Inn. and a 1.89 ERA.

MLB Relieving Stats:

  • Arano: 10 Gms., 10 2/3 Inn. and a 1.69 ERA.
  • Rios: 13 Gms., 16 1/3 Inn. and a 4.41 ERA.
Will Fireballer Pinto Be Left off the 40-Man Roster? Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images.
Will Fireballer Pinto Be Left off the 40-Man Roster? Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. /

In addition to Arano and Rios, righty Ricardo Pinto, who struggled mightily with the red pinstripes, produced a 0.00 ERA in 11 relief appearances for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs before his trial performances in the majors. Unfortunately, the fireballer had control problems with the big club: He issued 17 free passes to 25 strikeouts compared to just two walks with 21 punch outs in his bullpen role for Lehigh Valley.

Of the other two with auditions, Zac Curtis, an average-stuff southpaw, recorded a 1.08 ERA; but he had only produced a 3.51 ERA in Double-A before his promotion by the Seattle Mariners. Lastly, right-hander Jesen Therrien had arrived in the major leagues after dominating the top two plateaus of the farm system, but he had difficulty with the Phillies before his campaign-ending injury.

MiLB Relieving Stats:

  • Arano: 32 AA Gms., 38 2/3 Inn. and a 4.19 ERA.
  • Rios: 13 AAA Gms., 18 1/3 Inn. and a 1.96 ERA.
  • Rios: 24 AA Gms., 38 Inn. and a 1.89 ERA.
  • Pinto: 11 AAA Gms., 20 2/3 Inn. and a 0.00 ERA.
  • Curtis: 41 AA Gms., 51 1/3 Inn. a 3.51 ERA and 13 Saves.
  • Terrien: 18 AAA Gms., 28 2/3 Inn. and a 1.57 ERA.
  • Terrien: 21 AA Gms., 28 2/3 Inn. and a 1.26 ERA.

MLB Relieving Stats:

  • Arano: 10 Gms., 10 2/3 Inn. and a 1.69 ERA.
  • Rios: 13 Gms., 16 1/3 Inn. and a 4.41 ERA.
  • Pinto: 25 Gms., 29 2/3 Inn. and a 7.89 ERA.
  • Curtis: 6 Gms., 8 1/3 Inn. and a 1.08 ERA.
  • Terrien: 15 Gms., 18 1/3 Inn. and a 8.35 ERA.

MiLB Starting Stats:

  • Pinto: 8 AAA Gms., 40 Inn., 3-3 and a 5.85 ERA.

While Florimon is the front-runner for a reserve role, Jesmuel Valentin and Eliezer Alvarez will be his competition. But both had injuries also: Valentin had suffered a separated shoulder to end his season on May 12, and Alvarez was out for two months around mid-season. That stated, Valentin batted .229 for Lehigh Valley after averaging over .300 until the last week or so of April, while Alvarez hit .247 in Double A after batting  .300 in consecutive summers at rookie ball and Single-A.

Will One of 2017’s Auditioning Relievers Be in the Pen Next Summer?Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images.
Will One of 2017’s Auditioning Relievers Be in the Pen Next Summer?Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /
ONLY YOU: “They broke it to me gently. The manager came up to me before a game and told me they didn’t allow visitors in the clubhouse.” – Bob “Mr. Baseball” Uecker

Among 2017’s surprises, outfielder Carlos Tocci hit .307 at Reading for his best summer since his .321 average in 2015 with the Single-A Lakewood BlueClaws. Yet even though he struggled through just 17 games after earning a mid-August promotion to the IronPigs, he’ll be in their outfield for 2018. And he’ll probably spend the entire campaign there even if the red pinstripes have an opening.

Limited to only five starts due to an 80-game PED suspension, portsider Elniery Garcia had success with the Fightin Phils upon his return. Meanwhile, Seranthony Dominguez and Suarez will probably require more seasoning at Clearwater for at least the first half. But both must improve before advancing to Double-A.

MiLB Starters:

  • Garcia: 5 AA Gms., 25 2/3 Inn., 2-1 and a 1.75 ERA.
  • Garcia for 2016: 20 A+ Gms., 117 2/3 Inn., 12-4 and a 2.68 ERA.
  • Dominguez: 15 A+ Gms., 62 1/3 Inn., 4-4 and a 3.61 ERA.
  • Dominguez for 2016: 10 A Gms., 48 1 /3 Inn., 5-2 and a 2.42 ERA.
  • Suarez: 8 A+ Gms., 37 2/3 Inn., 2-4 and a 3.82 ERA.
  • Suarez: 14 A Gms., 85 Inn., 6-2 and a 1.59 ERA.

According to MLB.com, these seven prospects are in the Phllies’ top 30: Suarez, 14; Garcia, 18; Anderson, 22; Tocci, 23; Alvarez, 25; Arano, 26; and Dominguez, 28.

One additional consideration: If Klentak can re-sign Florimon to a minor league commitment with a non-roster invitation to spring training, he could protect another player from the draft until April: Pinto.

If you’re reading this paragraph, you now realize the difficulty involved in leaving two or three players off the 40-man roster. Firstly, Klentak will probably risk losing Therrien in the Rule 5 Draft because he will likely miss ’18. Yes, a claiming franchise could stash him on the 60-day disabled list, but a year from now he will need a spot on their overall 40 before proving he’s healthy. So, who could the other one be besides Pinto without a chair when the music stops? Curtis.

The Phillies’ Play in September Has Made Fans Desire Spring Training and Remember a Past Champion. Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images.
The Phillies’ Play in September Has Made Fans Desire Spring Training and Remember a Past Champion. Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

* In split numbers, only basic info is available.

MLB Stats:

  • Florimon, almost 31: 15 Gms., 49 PA, a .348 Avg., a .388 OBP, a .478 SLG, a .130 ISO, a .533 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, an .866 OPS and a 0.6 fWAR.
  • Perkins, 27: 42 Gms., 97 PA, a .182 Avg., a .237 OBP, a .273 SLG, a .091 ISO, a .227 BABIP, 1 HR, 8 RBI, a .510 OPS and a -0.7 fWAR.

MiLB Stats:

  • Valentin, 23.5: 29 AAA Gms., 104 PA, a .229 Avg., a .282 OBP, a .292 SLG, a .063 ISO, a .266 BABIP, 1 HR, 7 RBI, a .573 OPS and a -0.6 WARP.
  • Alvarez, 23: 54 AA Gms., 209 PA, a .247 Avg., a .321 OBP, a .382 SLG, a .134 ISO, a .328 BABIP, 4 HR, 26 RBI, a .702 OPS and a 0.2 WARP.

Hitting Stats:

Tocci, 22:

  • Triple-A: 17 Gms., 54 PA, a .189 Avg., a .204 OBP, a .245 SLG, a .057 ISO, a .220 BABIP, 1 HR, 4 RBI, a .449 OPS and a -0.2 WARP.
  • Double-A: 113 Gms., 474 PA, a .307 Avg., a .362 OBP, a .398 SLG, a .091 ISO, a .356 BABIP, 2 HR, 48 RBI, a .760 OPS and a 2.3 WARP.

Pitching Stats:

Arano, 22.5:

  • MLB: 10 Gms., 10 2/3 Inn. a 1.69 ERA, a 1.85 FIP, a 3.35 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 0.94 WHIP.
  • Double-A: 32 Gms., 38 2/3 Inn. a 4.19 ERA, a 4.54 FIP, a 3.80 xFIP and  a 1.29 WHIP.

Rios, 24:

  • MLB: 13 Gms., 16 1/3 Inn. a 4.41 ERA, a 5.91 FIP, a 5.13 xFIP, a 4.49 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.47 WHIP.
  • Triple-A 13 Gms., 18 1/3 Inn. a 1.96 ERA, a 4.26 FIP, a 3.68 xFIP and a 0.76 WHIP.
  • Double-A: 24 Gms., 38 Inn., a 1.89 ERA, a 2.38 FIP, a 2.77 xFIP and a 0.84 WHIP.

Pinto, 23.5:

  • MLB: 25 Gms., 29 2/3 Inn. a 7.89 ERA, a 6.36 FIP, a 5.39 xFIP, a 5.01 SIERA, a -0.5 fWAR and a 1.89 WHIP.
  • *Triple-A: 11 Gms., 20 2/3 Inn., a 0.00 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP.
  • *Triple-A: 8 Starts., 40 Inn., 3-3, a 5.85 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP.

Anderson, 23.5:

  • MLB: 2 Gms., 2 1/3 Inn. a 23.14 ERA, a 2.73 FIP, a 5.78 xFIP, a 4.99 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 3.00 WHIP.
  • Triple-A: 1 Gm., 6 2/3 Inn. 1-0, a 1.35 ERA, a 4.54 FIP, a 4.24 xFIP and a 1.05 WHIP.
  • Double-A: 21 Gms., 107 2/3 Inn. 9-4, a 3.59 ERA, a 4.53 FIP, a 4.52 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP.

Therrien, 24.5:

  • MLB: 15 Gms., 18 1/3 Inn. an 8.35 ERA, a 6.92 FIP, a 5.72 xFIP, a 4.97 SIERA, a -0.3 fWAR and a 1.69 WHIP.
  • Triple-A: 18 Gms., 28 2/3 Inn., 2 Saves, a 1.57 ERA, a 3.06 FIP, a 3.09 xFIP and a 1.08 WHIP.
  • Double-A: 21 Gms., 28 2/3 Inn., 7 Saves, a 1.26 ERA, a 1.27 FIP, a 1.74 xFIP and a 0.59 WHIP.

Curtis, 24.5:

  • MLB: 6 Gms., 8 1/3 Inn., a 1.08 ERA, a 5.08 FIP, a 5.65 xFIP, a 4.71 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.08 WHIP.
  • Double-A: 41 Gms., 51 1/3 Inn., 13 Saves, a 3.51 ERA, a 3.20 FIP, a 3.63 xFIP and a 1.21 WHIP.

E. Garcia, almost 23:

  • Double-A: 5 Gms., 25 2/3 Inn., 2-1, a 1.75 ERA, a 4.55 FIP, a 6.13 xFIP and a 1.32 WHIP.
  • 2016 Single-A Advanced: 20 Gms., 117 2/3 Inn., 12-4, a 2.68 ERA, a 3.58 FIP, a 3.52 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.

Tirado, almost 23:

  • Double-A: 10 Gms., 21 Inn., a 6.75 ERA, a 7.14 FIP, an 8.54 xFIP and a 2.67 WHIP.
  • *Single-A Advanced: 12 Gms., 59 1/3 Inn., 5-4, a 3.64 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.

Suarez, 22:

  • Single-A Advanced: 8 Gms., 37 2/3 Inn., 2-4, a 3.82 ERA, a 2.59 FIP, a 3.00 xFIP and a 1.43 WHIP.
  • Single-A: 14 Gms., 85 Inn., 6-2, a 1.59 ERA, a 2.87 FIP, a 2.80 xFIP and a 0.89 WHIP.

Next: Phillies: Bats for 40-Man Spots

Dominguez, almost 23:

  • Single-A Advanced:15 Gms., 62 1/3 Inn., 4-4, a 3.61 ERA, a 3.70 FIP, a 3.22 xFIP and a 1.30 WHIP.
  • 2016 Single-A:10 Gms., 48 1/3 Inn., 5-2, a 2.42 ERA, a 3.30 FIP, a 3.42 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP.
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