Kansas City Royals: 2017 season review and offseason preview

What Went Right

Eric Hosmer had the best season of his career, hitting .318/.385/.498, with 25 homers, 98 runs, and 94 RBI. He chose the perfect time to do it also, as he’ll likely be the top free agent first baseman on the market (even though lesser names like Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, and Lucas Duda are viable options who will be much cheaper). That’s not so good for the Royals’ chance to re-sign him, but it sounds like they’ll make a run at him.

Center fielder Lorenzo Cain bounced back from an injury-marred 2016 season with a strong 2017 season. He had the best on base percentage of his career and came one homer away from tying his career high. He’ll be 32 next season and isn’t the defender he once was, but will still be a desirable commodity in free agency. He could be looking at a four or five year deal.

On September 20, third baseman Mike Moustakas broke a Royals record that had stood since 1985. He launched his 37th home run of the year off CC Sabathia and broke the single-season mark for the Royals set by Steve “Bye Bye” Balboni 32 years ago. Moustakas finished the season with 38 home runs and 85 RBI. Like Cain, Moose could be looking at a four or five year contract in free agency.

One bright spot on offense for the Royals who should remain in Kansas City is second baseman Whit Merrifield, who came close to a 20-20 season when he launched 19 long balls and stole 34 bases. That’s the second-most steals in a season ever by a Royals second baseman (Jose Offerman stole 45 in 1998).

It was a nice surprise to see Merrifield have success in the big leagues. He was a ninth-round draft pick back in 2010 who spent six years in the minor leagues before coming up in 2016 for a half-season. He never made the Baseball America top 100 list and, at 28 years old, he doesn’t have much projection left but will be an affordable option in the near future.

After having a breakout season in 2016, the Royals signed Danny Duffy to a five-year, $65 million contract. He pitched fewer innings, won fewer games, had a higher ERA, and a lower strikeout rate than he did last year, but he was still quite good. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference both had him as a 3 WAR pitcher (Wins Above Replacement).

Jason Vargas had a 4.16 ERA, which isn’t great, but he led the team in wins, with 18, and tied for the team lead in starts, with 32. It was really a tale of two halves, though. He was 12-3 with a 2.62 ERA in the first half and 6-8 with a 6.38 ERA in the second half. He could be in both categories because he was something that went right in the first half and wrong in the second half.

In the bullpen, lefty reliever Mike Minor appeared in 65 games and had a 2.55 ERA. He was a setup guy for most of the season, but finished the year as the team’s closer and picked up six saves in the final two weeks of the season.

What Went Wrong

The Royals signed Brandon Moss to a two-year, $12 million contract in January after he hit 28 homers in 128 games with the Cardinals in 2016. He was unable to replicate his numbers this year, and was particularly bad at getting on base. He hit .207/.279/.428 and finished below replacement-level (0.5 WAR).

Shortstop Alcides Escobar played all 162 games for the second year in a row and was good on defense. He was terrible with the bat, though, hitting .250/.272/.357. He’s never been very good at hitting, but he used to at least steal an occasional base. This year, he had just four steals.

The painful demise of Alex Gordon’s career hit rock bottom in 2017. Gordon was a 6-WAR player in the Royals’ first World Series year, back in 2014. That year, he won his fourth straight Gold Glove award and was in the midst of a three-year run of making the AL All-Star team each year.

He was good when he was healthy in 2015, but only played 104 games that season. Last year was ugly and this year was uglier. He hit .208/.293/.315, meaning he didn’t hit for average, couldn’t get on base, and had very little power. That .315 slugging percentage was the worst among the 144 players who had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. To make matters worse, he was making $16 million and is still owed $20 million for each of the next two seasons plus a $4 million buyout for the 2020 season.

Ian Kennedy signed a five-year, $70 million contract with the Royals prior to the 2016 season and had an 11-win season with a 3.68 ERA. His FIP was 4.67, which was a red flag for what was to come. This year, he went 5-13 with a 5.38 ERA and even worse 5.61 FIP. He was below replacement-level and has plenty of money still coming his way over the next three years.

Fresh off a 15-10, 3.83 ERA season with the World Champion Chicago Cubs, Jason Hammel signed a free agent contract with the Royals in February. He went 8-13 and had a 5.29 ERA. It should be noted that his FIP was 4.48 in 2016 and 4.37 in 2017, so his underlying performance wasn’t that different based on the three things a pitcher has the most control over (strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed). He was fortunate in 2016 (.267 BABIP allowed, 76 percent Left On Base percentage) and unfortunate in 2017 (.318 BABIP allowed, 68 percent Left On Base percentage).

In their World Series years, one of the keys to the Royals’ success was the three-headed beast at the back end of the bullpen—Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvim Herrera. Holland was injured and missed the entire 2016 season. He’s with Colorado now. Wade Davis was traded to the Cubs last December. That left Herrera for the closer’s role and he struggled. After three straight seasons with ERAs under 3.00, Herrera had a 4.25 ERA and blew five of his 31 save opportunities. He lost the closer’s job in September.

Top Offseason Priorities

According to CBS Sports, the Royals were right in the middle of the pack in team salary, ranking 15^th in baseball with a payroll of $141 million on Opening Day. Their two highest-salaried players who will be back with the team, Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy, had bad seasons. Another starting pitcher, Jason Hammel, will make $9 million and also had a rough year.

This is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster. The salaries are from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus. For players who are arbitration-eligible, I’ve included their projected salaries, which come from MLB Trade Rumors.

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C Salvador Perez, $7.5 million

1B Brandon Moss, $7.25 million

2B Whit Merrifield, pre-arbitration

SS Raul Mondesi, pre-arbitration

3B Cheslor Cuthbert, pre-arbitration

LF Alex Gordon, $20 million

CF Paulo Orlando,

RF Jorge Bonifacio, pre-arbitration

DH Jorge Soler, $4 million

C Drew Butera, $2.3 million

SP Danny Duffy, $14 million

SP Ian Kennedy, $16 million

SP Jason Hammel, $9 milion

SP Nate Karns arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.4 million)

SP Jake Junis, pre-arbitration

RP Kelvim Herrera, arbitration-eligible (projected: $8.3 million)

RP Joakim Soria, $9 million

RP Mike Minor, $10 million option, $1.25 million buyout

RP Brandon Maurer, arbitration-eligible (projected $3.8 million)

Free agents: 1B Eric Hosmer, 3B Mike Moustakas, CF Lorenzo Cain, SS Alcides Escobar, LF Melky Cabrera, SP Jason Vargas, RP Trevor Cahill, RP Peter Moylan

The top priority for the Royals in the offseason is to determine which of their departing free agents should get a Qualifying Offer. They have to make this decision within five days of the end of the World Series. The compensation for the Qualifying Offer this year is $18.1 million, so any player the Royals make the offer to can accept it and make $18.1 million for one year, then become a free agent after the 2018 season.

If the offer is made and the player rejects it, then the Royals will get draft pick compensation if the player signs with another team. Of the Royals departing free agents, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are slam dunks to get a Qualifying Offer, while Lorenzo Cain is also likely to get one. Melky Cabrera and Trevor Cahill are not eligible because they were not with the Royals the entire season. Peter Moylan won’t get one and neither should Jason Vargas or Alcides Escobar. Vargas won 18 games last year, but his 4.67 FIP and brutal second half make him a risk. As for Escobar, thanks for the memories, but aging shortstops with a career .294 OBP aren’t worth $18.1 million.

Once the offer is extended, the player has 10 days to accept or reject it. With three of the teams top players likely to get a Qualifying Offer, the Royals won’t necessarily know what next year’s team will look like until mid-November. In the meantime, they have to consider the possibility that none of the departing free agents will be back and build a team with that in mind.

Another wild card in the equation is GM Dayton Moore, who is rumored to be a target for the Atlanta Braves General Manager job. When asked during an end-of-year press conference if he would turn down an offer from the Braves, Moore said, “I get the connection there, because that’s where I started in this game. So it’s very natural for someone to ask that question…but again I don’t think it requires me to comment at this point or needs me to comment further.” That’s not exactly a resounding no.

In a Kansas City Star article, Moore spoke about the direction of the team, saying, “We can go one of two ways. We can decide to just gut the team the best we can and save as much money as possible and play for draft picks, and maybe that’s ultimately what we could end up doing. It’s too early to predict that right now.” Gutting the team is one option. Trying to re-shape the team and still compete is another.

If they choose to try to compete next year, then re-signing Eric Hosmer is the top priority for the team. He’ll be just 28 years old and is coming off the best season of his career. The Royals were 13^th in the AL in runs scored last year, so the offense definitely needs a good bat at first base.

The other option is the one Moore mentioned, gut the team and save money for the future. Instead of Moustakas and Escobar, the left side of the infield would be Cuthbert and Mondesi. Soler and Bonifacio would be the young players in the outfield, alongside Alex Gordon and his albatross contract. Prospect Hunter Dozier should be given a shot at playing time. If they go all-in, then trading Danny Duffy and Salvador Perez would bring back the most in terms of prospects.

Next: Girardi leaving the Bronx

Next year’s Royals will be markedly different than this year’s team. This group had a good run that included two World Series appearances and the team’s second World Series title, but back-to-back seasons around .500 and free agent departures mean it’s time to turn the page.