Phillies: The Odds Are 58 Percent

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Williams Is Also an Excellent Defender in All Three Outfield Positions. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images.
Williams Is Also an Excellent Defender in All Three Outfield Positions. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. /

In a game awash with numbers, fans overlook some old-fashioned percentages the Philadelphia Phillies and their competitors never did, and they still don’t even with entire departments dedicated to analytics.

The High School Star:

The excitement of your entire future ahead of you is a view with a series of firsts: job, raise and promotion.

When it comes to the MLB Rule 4 Draft, franchises can select a collegiate player or a high schooler. Basically, the available talent and the organization’s status determine their direction. For instance, the need for young starters due to multiple openings in the crystal ball for rebuilding led to Aaron Nola. With, however, a stocked farm system, general manager Matt Klentak will have interest in high school standouts unless a college one is available. Another Scott Kingery?

According to Jim Sannes of numberFirethe chances of making the majors as a position player on a 25-man roster are 58.00 percent for a high school stud drafted in the first round. And he calculated 75.39 percent for collegians. At a minimum, a big leaguer is someone who has a 25-man spot for three consecutive months or three out of four or five if he lands on the disabled list, not a September call-up or a injury fill-in only. Translation: a Cameron Perkins.

For a GM, the basic timeframe for a prospect to reach the majors is five seasons and three additional campaigns to have an impact. So, an 18 year-old will be on the parent club at 23 and will start making his mark at 26. In other words, this yardstick for progress will be the view from the front office for high school draftees Mickey Moniak, Cornelius Randolph, J.P. Crawford and Nick Williams.

During their first stop on the journey to the Show, three of the four left-handed stars except for Moniak hit over .300 in the rookie league. Additionally, each skipped Low Single-A ball, but Crawford and Williams had a smoother transition with their jump of two competitive levels.

Rookie Ball:

  • Moniak: 46 Gms., 194 PA and a .284 Avg.
  • Randolph: 53 Gms., 212 PA and a .302 Avg.
  • Crawford: 46 Gms., 168 PA and a .345 Avg.
  • Williams: 46 Gms., 224 PA and a .313 Avg.


  • Moniak: 123 Gms., 309 PA and a .236 Avg.
  • Randolph: 63 Gms., 276 PA and a .274 Avg.
  • Crawford: 60 Gms., 267 PA and a .295 Avg.
  • Williams: 95 Gms., 404 PA and a .293 Avg.

With a indirect connection to “Teddy Ballgame” Williams, center fielder Moniak, 19, hit .284 in rookie ball with 10 stolen bases in 14 attempts to earn his advancement to the Single-A Lakewood BlueClaws. Unfortunately, he got his first taste of adversity there with a .236 average and 11 swiped bags in 18 opportunities. So, he’ll return to Lakewood for at least the first half of 2018 before any promotion in his third summer to the Single-A Advanced Clearwater Threshers.