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Phillies: The Odds Are 58 Percent

By Tal Venada |
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 12: Nick Williams
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 12: Nick Williams
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Williams Is Also an Excellent Defender in All Three Outfield Positions. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images.
Williams Is Also an Excellent Defender in All Three Outfield Positions. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. /

In a game awash with numbers, fans overlook some old-fashioned percentages the Philadelphia Phillies and their competitors never did, and they still don’t even with entire departments dedicated to analytics.

The High School Star:

The excitement of your entire future ahead of you is a view with a series of firsts: job, raise and promotion.

When it comes to the MLB Rule 4 Draft, franchises can select a collegiate player or a high schooler. Basically, the available talent and the organization’s status determine their direction. For instance, the need for young starters due to multiple openings in the crystal ball for rebuilding led to Aaron Nola. With, however, a stocked farm system, general manager Matt Klentak will have interest in high school standouts unless a college one is available. Another Scott Kingery?

According to Jim Sannes of numberFire, the chances of making the majors as a position player on a 25-man roster are 58.00 percent for a high school stud drafted in the first round. And he calculated 75.39 percent for collegians. At a minimum, a big leaguer is someone who has a 25-man spot for three consecutive months or three out of four or five if he lands on the disabled list, not a September call-up or a injury fill-in only. Translation: a Cameron Perkins.

For a GM, the basic timeframe for a prospect to reach the majors is five seasons and three additional campaigns to have an impact. So, an 18 year-old will be on the parent club at 23 and will start making his mark at 26. In other words, this yardstick for progress will be the view from the front office for high school draftees Mickey Moniak, Cornelius Randolph, J.P. Crawford and Nick Williams.

During their first stop on the journey to the Show, three of the four left-handed stars except for Moniak hit over .300 in the rookie league. Additionally, each skipped Low Single-A ball, but Crawford and Williams had a smoother transition with their jump of two competitive levels.

Rookie Ball:

  • Moniak: 46 Gms., 194 PA and a .284 Avg.
  • Randolph: 53 Gms., 212 PA and a .302 Avg.
  • Crawford: 46 Gms., 168 PA and a .345 Avg.
  • Williams: 46 Gms., 224 PA and a .313 Avg.

Single-A:

  • Moniak: 123 Gms., 309 PA and a .236 Avg.
  • Randolph: 63 Gms., 276 PA and a .274 Avg.
  • Crawford: 60 Gms., 267 PA and a .295 Avg.
  • Williams: 95 Gms., 404 PA and a .293 Avg.

With a indirect connection to “Teddy Ballgame” Williams, center fielder Moniak, 19, hit .284 in rookie ball with 10 stolen bases in 14 attempts to earn his advancement to the Single-A Lakewood BlueClaws. Unfortunately, he got his first taste of adversity there with a .236 average and 11 swiped bags in 18 opportunities. So, he’ll return to Lakewood for at least the first half of 2018 before any promotion in his third summer to the Single-A Advanced Clearwater Threshers.

Crawford Must Raise His Average for More Playing Time. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images.
Crawford Must Raise His Average for More Playing Time. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

On Phils sites, the faithful proved again they do not have the patience of Job. Yes, some were ready to deal Moniak as part of a trade package. On the other hand, very few top prospects have a completely smooth path to the top.

While others expressed their disappointment in Crawford, many fans were handing him the shortstop job for some reason. Probably, years of hype. But Williams, however, is free of Crawford’s expectations because he was an acquisition from the Texas Rangers. Lucky him.

With comparisons to Robinson Cano, outfielder Randolph, 20, batted .274 with a .355 OBP at Lakewood to receive a promotion to Clearwater. But hitting .250 for the 2017 Threshers was his first speed bump. And his test for 2018 at Clearwater will begin for at least the first two months or the first half of his fourth season to advance to the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils.

At Double-A, the successful pitchers have major league talent and are predominantly throwing fastballs, but their accuracy is 40 percent compared to 70 percent in the majors. In other words, this is the highest plateau where natural ability is enough for standouts.

For Crawford, 22, the competition at Clearwater slowed him down to .275 after a second half promotion during his second summer. But he rebounded early the following campaign for an advancement to Reading. However, tougher opponents held him down to .265 for rest of 2015 and the first half of 2016, but his plate discipline earned him a promotion to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. The shortstop, unfortunately, only batted .244 and .243 for ’16 and ’17 respectively, but the difference in the second half of last year was a more aggressive hitting approach to produce a .287 mark. Ergo, a September call-up.

IN OTHER WORDS: “I remember going from rookie ball to A, to double A, then to triple A. At every level it seemed like the game was faster. The bigger the situation, the more the game speeds up. That’s all mental. It messes people up.” – Derek “Captain Clutch” Jeter
Williams Hitting Behind Hoskins for Protection Is the Best Possibility So Far. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images.
Williams Hitting Behind Hoskins for Protection Is the Best Possibility So Far. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

After batting .292 at the Single-A Advanced affiliate for Texas, Williams, 24, did not struggle in either of two Double-A leagues and finished with the Fightin Phils after the ’15 swap. His combined total was .303, 17 homers and 55 RBIs. For him, however, the adversity didn’t come until 2016 with the IronPigs: .258, 13 home runs and 64 RBIs. But last season, the outfielder had better results: .280, 15 bombs and 44 RBIs before joining the red pinstripes.

ONLY YOU: “A lot of guys go, ‘Hey, Yog, say a Yogi-ism.’ I tell ’em, ‘I don’t know any.’ They want me to make one up. I don’t make ’em up. I don’t even know when I say it. They’re the truth. And it is the truth. I don’t know.” – Yogi Berra

For two high school draftees, ’18 will probably be their first full 162 with the Philadelphia Phillies, and each will have different challenges. Regarding Crawford, he’ll be developing into a three-position semi-regular even though he averaged .214  with a .356 OBP for September. That stated, if he can hit .250 with a high OBP due to plate discipline, he’ll have a starting point to build on.

Despite lower expectations, Williams averaged .288 on the Phillies with 12 long balls and 55 RBIs for a 2018 total of 27 homers and 99 RBIs. But when you compare his stats to the other three, this guy can hit and nearly doubled the distance between his average and his OBP last summer: He went from .028 (.280/.308) for the Allentown affiliate to .050 (.288/.338) for the hometown nine. Hopefully, he won’t get too comfortable like Odubel Herrera.

With a hit-or-sit incentive, Crawford will be sharing playing time with Cesar Hernandez, Freddy Galvis and Maikel Franco, while Williams will be doing the same with Aaron Altherr, Rhys Hoskins and Herrera. But what will the other motivation be if this approach doesn’t work? Lehigh Valley!

Despite Excellent Defense, Crawford Must Earn Playing Time with His Bat. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images.
Despite Excellent Defense, Crawford Must Earn Playing Time with His Bat. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Stats for the last two years:

Moniak, 19.5:

  • 2016: 46 R Gms., 194 PA, a .284 Avg., a .340 OBP, a .409 SLG, a .125 ISO, a .345 BABIP, 1 HR, 28 RBI, a .749 OPS, a 1.4 WARP, 10 SB, 4 CS and a 7.9 Spd.
  • 2017: 123 A Gms., 509 PA, a .236 Avg., a .284 OBP, a .341 SLG, a .105 ISO, a .292 BABIP, 5 HR, 44 RBI, a .625 OPS, a 0.2 WARP, 11 SB, 7 CS and a 5.9 Spd.

Randolph, 20.5:

  • 2016: 63 A Gms., 276 PA, a .274 Avg., a .355 OBP, a .357 SLG, a .083 ISO, a .346 BABIP, 2 HR, 27 RBI, a .712 OPS and a 1.8 WARP.
  • 2017: 122 A+ Gms., 510 PA, a .250 Avg., a .338 OBP, a .402 SLG, a .152 ISO, a .316 BABIP, 13 HR, 55 RBI, a .740 OPS and a 1.2 WARP.

Crawford, 22.5:

  • 2016: 36 AA Gms., 166 PA, a .265 Avg., a .398 OBP, a .390 SLG, a .125 ISO, a .295 BABIP, 3 HR, 13 RBI, a .787 OPS and a 1.9 WARP.
  • 2016: 87 AAA Gms., 385 PA, a .244 Avg., a .328 OBP, a .318 SLG, a .074 ISO, a .284 BABIP, 4 HR, 30 RBI, a .647 OPS and a 0.7 WARP.
  • 2017: 127 AAA Gms., 556 PA, a .243 Avg., a .351 OBP, a .405 SLG, a .162 ISO, a .275 BABIP, 15 HR, 63 RBI, a .756 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.
  • 2017: 23 MLB Gms., 87 PA, a .214 Avg., a .356 OBP, a .300 SLG, a .086 ISO, a .306 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, a .656 OPS and a 0.2 fWAR.

Next: Phillies on the Bubble

Williams, 24:

  • 2016: 125 AAA Gms., 527 PA, a .258 Avg., a .287 OBP, a .427 SLG, a .169 ISO, a .325 BABIP, 13 HR, 64 RBI, a .714 OPS and a 1.5 WARP.
  • 2017: 78 AAA Gms., 306 PA, a .280 Avg., a .308 OBP, a .511 SLG, a .230 ISO, a .358 BABIP, 15 HR, 44 RBI, an .839 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.
  • 2017: 83 MLB Gms., 343 PA, a .288 Avg., a .338 OBP, a .473 SLG, a .185 ISO, a .375 BABIP, 12 HR, 55 RBI, an .811 OPS and a 0.8 fWAR.
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