Colorado Rockies: 2017 Season Review and Offseason Preview
What went right, what went wrong, and what are the top priorities for the Colorado Rockies this offseason?
Despite ending the year with an 11-8 loss in the Wild Card game, the 2017 season was a good one for the Colorado Rockies. It was their first winning season since 2010 and their first postseason appearance since 2009. It was also just the seventh winning season they’ve had in their 25-year history.
The season started off well for the Rockies, where they won five of their first six games and finished atop the NL West with a record of 16-10 in April, spending most of May and much of June there also. On June 20, they were 47-26 and a half-game ahead of the Dodgers and two up on the Diamondbacks.
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House That Hank Built
Little did they know that the Dodgers had already started an incredible stretch in which they would go 52-9 over 61 games. They would go on to run away with the division.
The Diamondbacks also moved past the Rockies to finish second in the division. The Rockies went 40-49 over their last 89 games and just beat out the Brewers by a single game for the second wild card spot.
One of the personnel changes the Rockies made before last season was hiring Bud Black as manager. From 1981 to 1995, Black was a Major League pitcher who won 121 games with five different teams.
After his playing career ended, he was a pitching coach with the Angels for seven years, then managed the Padres for nine years.
With Black’s experience as a big league pitcher and pitching coach, there was hope that he could produce an efficient pitching staff at very hitter-friendly Coors Field.
Based on Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement, the Rockies improved production on the mound. In 2016, they finished 17th of 30 teams in Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (WAR). This year, they were eighth.
The team’s improved pitching came from a staff that didn’t have a single start from a pitcher older than 28 years old. In fact, nearly 70 percent of their starts were by pitchers 25 or younger. As good as the rotation was the bullpen was even better, thanks in large part to closer Greg Holland and setup man Jake McGee.
After the best season Colorado fans have seen in years, let’s take a look at what went right, what went wrong, and the team’s top offseason priorities.
What Went Right
The Colorado Rockies had two players who could finish in the top 10 in NL MVP voting. Center fielder Charlie Blackmon has been getting better and better with each passing year. He’s been a regular for four seasons and has gone from two seasons as a two-win player to a four-win player last year to this year’s 6.5 WAR season.
He’s improved his on-base percentage and slugging percentage in each of the previous three seasons. At one time he looked like a 20-HR guy who would steal 30-40 bases. Now he’s a 37-HR guy who stole 14 bases.
Third baseman Nolan Arenado has also improved each year of his career. This season, he didn’t quite get to the 40-HR level he’d reached in the two previous seasons, but 37 big flies and 130 RBI are impressive enough.
Arenado had the best on-base percentage, and slugging percentage of his career and his fielding at third continues to be among the best in the game. He also had a walk-off homer and hit for the cycle against the Giants on June 18.
How you judge the other Colorado Rockies hitters depends on your point of view. If you prefer traditional stats, you might like the 24 homers and 82 RBI of shortstop Trevor Story or the 95 runs scored of second baseman DJ LeMahieu,ignoring the Coors Field effect.
If you believe in Fangraphs WAR, you’ll find that Story was worth 1.3 WAR and LeMahieu was worth 1.8. That made both below average players (2 WAR is average). Story’s .308 on-base percentage brings him down, and LeMahieu’s .409 slugging percentage limits his value in large part because they get to play their home games at Coors Field.
The most valuable starting pitcher on the Rockies was Jon Gray, who was 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA (3.18 FIP) in 110.3 innings. In the history of the franchise, Gray’s 3.67 ERA is the 10th best of any starting pitcher with 110 or more innings in a season.
This season got off to a rough start, where he suffered a stress fracture in his foot early in the year and missed ten weeks, coming back strong and was effective down the stretch. Gray is the clear ace on this team. He had the best strikeout rate, second-best walk rate, and best rate of home runs allowed of any starter.
German Marquez (11-7, 4.39 ERA, 4.40 FIP) and Kyle Freeland (11-11, 4.15 ERA, 4.69 FIP) led the team in innings pitched and kept them in games with a chance to win. Having ERAs over 4.00 doesn’t look impressive, but keep in mind the NL as a whole had a 4.34 ERA and Marquez and Freeland had to pitch roughly half their games at Coors.
In the Colorado Rockies bullpen, Greg Holland got all the publicity for his comeback season, and his 41 saves, but lefties Jake McGee (3.61 ERA, 2.93 FIP) and Chris Rusin (2.65 ERA, 3.64 FIP) were also very good. Pat Neshek came over in a July 26 trade and was excellent from the right side over the last couple months of the season.
What Went Wrong
The Colorado Rockies made an unusual move last December when they signed Ian Desmond to a five-year, $70 million contract. Desmond had played shortstop for most of his career, then moved to the outfield in 2016. The Rockies had a full outfield, so they signed Desmond to play first base, which seemed like a waste of fielding talent.
Desmond broke his hand in spring training and missed all of April. When he got back on the field in May, he struggled to hit for two months before being put on the DL with a calf injury in early July.
He came off the DL after the All-Star break but went right back on it less than two weeks later. This time, he missed another month. He finished the season with a .274/.326/.374 batting line. Hopefully, he can come back healthy next season and be a good contributor.
In what was likely his final season in Colorado, right fielder Carlos Gonzalez was below replacement-level. He started the year slowly and had trouble finding his stroke through the first four months of the year.
As July rolled into early August, he was hitting .228/.301/.338. He started to warm up a bit in August and caught fire in September. Over the final two months of the season, he hit .325/.407/.583.
It was a great finish to a rough year. Whether it helps Gonzalez make some coin on the free agent market in the offseason remains to be seen.
The starting rotation had a few pitchers with ERAs over 5.00, but you have to take Coors Field into account when looking at Rockies pitchers. None of the eight pitchers who started a game for the Rockies was below replacement-level. Their numbers make them look worse than they were.
The bullpen did have a couple arms who were just below replacement-level in Adam Ottavino and Jordan Lyles. Ottavino had a reasonable strikeout rate but walked way too many hitters (6.6 batters per nine innings). He finished with a 5.06 ERA and 5.16 FIP. Lyles was worse, with a 6.94 ERA and 5.84 FIP.
Top Offseason Priorities
According to CBS Sports,the Colorado Rockies were right in the middle-of-the-pack of MLB teams with a payroll of nearly $131 million (ranking 16th of 30 teams). Carlos Gonzalez was the big-ticket item, making over $20 million.
He was also a big disappointment. In the offseason, the team added Ian Desmond, Greg Holland, and Jake McGee. The two relievers pitched well, but Desmond struggled.
Heading into this offseason, the team has eight departing free agents, including three relievers who were quite good for them in 2017.
This is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster, with salaries from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus:
- C Tony Wolters, pre-arbitration
- 1B Ian Desmond, $22 million
- 2B DJ LeMahieu, arbitration-eligible (projected: $8.8 million)
- SS Trevor Story, pre-arbitration
- 3B Nolan Arenado, $17.75 million
- LF Raimel Tapia, pre-arbitration
- CF Charlie Blackmon, arbitration-eligible (projected: $13.4 million)
- RF Gerardo Parra, $10 million
- SP Chad Bettis, arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.5 million)
- SP Jon Gray, pre-arbitration
- SP Tyler Anderson, pre-arbitration
- SP German Marquez, pre-arbitration
- SP Kyle Freeland, pre-arbitration
- RP Michael Dunn, $7 million
- RP Adam Ottavino, $7 million
- RP Chris Rusin, arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.4 million)
Free agents: RF Carlos Gonzalez, C Jonathan Lucroy, RP Greg Holland, RP Jake McGee, RP Pat Neshek, 1B Mark Reynolds, SP Tyler Chatwood, C Ryan Hanigan
One of the keys to the Rockies’ success last season was their strong bullpen. Now, three of their top four relievers are free agents. Closer Greg Holland could have picked up a $15 million dollar player option but elected to become a free agent. He’s looking for a multi-year deal similar to the four-year, $62 million contract Mark Melancon got with the Giants last offseason. Jake McGee and Pat Neshek are also free agents.
If Holland, McGee, and Neshek don’t re-sign with the Rockies, the team will go back to the drawing board to create an effective bullpen. They have Michael Dunn, Adam Ottavino, and Chris Rusin signed for next season. Rusin was good this year, but Dunn and Ottavino had their struggles.
Deciding what to do about the catcher position is another top priority. The team would like to bring back free agent Jonathan Lucroy, who came over in a trade from the Texas Rangers in July.
He hit .310/.429/.437 in 46 games after the deal, and his veteran presence could be used with such a young group of starting pitchers. If he signs elsewhere, the catcher position will be left to Tony Walters and Tom Murphy.
Walters somehow had 266 plate appearances last season and slugged just .284 despite playing half his games in the best hitter’s park in the big leagues. He didn’t hit a single home run. He was good on defense, but a sinkhole on offense.
Tom Murphy was the #97 prospect on the Baseball America Top-100 before the 2016 season. He’s hit .297/.336/.567 in 151 games at the Triple-A level but has just 114 plate appearances across three seasons in the major leagues.
Murphy will be 27 years old next year. It’s about time the Colorado Rockies either give him a legitimate shot at playing time or trade him to someone who will.
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If Ian Desmond remains at first base, then the infield for the Colorado Rockies is set with Desmond, LeMahieu, Story, and Arenado.
Another option would be to re-sign Mark Reynolds to play first and move Desmond to the outfield. Or the team could look for a free agent first baseman and move Desmond to the outfield.
Blackmon will be back in center field, and Gerardo Parra will get some time in the outfield corners.
A couple of younger players should get playing time at the corners also. Raimel Tapia hit .288/.329/.425 in 171 plate appearances last year while playing both left and right field.
Another young outfielder, David Dahl, will try to come back from a season lost to injury. He had a stress reaction in his rib during spring training and missed most of the year. In 17 games in Triple-A, he hit .243/.274/.414.
This is a guy who was a top-100 prospect four years in a row before hitting .315/.359/.500 in 63 games with the Rockies in 2016. If he comes back healthy, he should claim left field for himself.
Then there’s Carlos Gonzalez, who has been with the Rockies since 2009. He’s coming off the worst season of his career and is a free agent, but many fans would like to see him back with the Colorado Rockies. As with many things in life, it depends on the money involved and how much Gonzalez might get on the free agent market.
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The Colorado Rockies have some moves to make this offseason to get back to the playoffs next year. They’ll still have the dynamic duo of Blackmon and Arenado to power the offense, but need a catcher and some bullpen help. Also, much will depend on their young starters continuing to pitch well. Rockies fans are hoping Bud Black can build on a successful first season.