Chicago White Sox: 2017 Season Review and Offseason Preview
What went right, what went wrong, and what are the top priorities for the Chicago White Sox this offseason?
With the Houston Astros making the World Series this year, there was a constant reminder on TV screens across the country of the last time the White Sox made the series. That was in 2005, when they swept the Astros for the third World Series title in team history. Three years later, the White Sox made the playoffs again but lost in the ALDS. They haven’t been to the postseason since.
On the bright side, White Sox fans can look to this year’s Astros for inspiration. The Astros bottomed out with three straight seasons of 100 or more losses while building a terrific farm system that has produced great major league players. The White Sox haven’t sunk to those depths, but did lose 95 games this season while in the midst of a full rebuild.
Of the eight highest-paid players on the White Sox, six were traded or released before the end of the season. This group included their top starting pitcher at the time, Jose Quintana, along with third baseman Todd Frazier, outfielder Melky Cabrera, and closer David Robertson. The two remaining high-salary players are Jose Abreu and the untradeable James Shields (making $21 million per year).
Losing all that talent didn’t help the team win games this year. They were 67-95 and finished fourth in the AL Central. Those 67 wins were their fewest since an ugly 63-99 season in 2013. It was a case of taking one step back so they can take two steps forward. One bright note might be that they went 15-15 over their final 30 games.
As the White Sox continue to graduate minor league talent to the big leagues, let’s take a look at what went right, what went wrong, and the team’s top offseason priorities.
What Went Right
The White Sox didn’t enjoy the “year of the home run” as much as most teams. They were tied for 13th in the AL in long balls, beating out only the Boston Red Sox. That being said, they did have two guys who combined good power with above-average on base ability to produce good seasons.
Right fielder Avisail Garcia led the team in Wins Above Replacement, with a 4.2 WAR season (per Fangraphs). It was a surprising development from a guy who hit .250/.308/.380 in 314 games over the three previous seasons. This year he hit .330/.380/.506 and set career highs in hits, runs, homers, and RBI.
One caveat with Garcia’s performance was a .392 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), which was the highest in baseball among players who qualified for the batting title. Over the three previous seasons Garcia’s BABIP was .309, so it’s unlikely he’ll be able to replicate the high BABIP he had this year. He did improve his strikeout rate from around 25% in 2016 to 20% in 2017. When he makes solid contact, he can really crush the ball, as he did on this home run.
First baseman Jose Abreu led the team with 33 homers and 102 RBI and was right there with Garcia with 4.1 WAR. Abreu’s been with the White Sox for four years and has been a well above average hitter all four years, but his defense at first base has cut into his value. Even with the subpar defense, he’s been a good value for the team so far.
Catcher Omar Narvaez only played 90 games and his .373 OBP was one of the best on the team. Yolmer Sanchez split time between second base and third base and hit .267/.319/.413, with 63 runs scored. He was third among position players with 2.1 WAR.
After trading Adam Eaton and Chris Sale, it was no secret that the White Sox would be trading Jose Quintana sooner rather than later. When the deal happened, Quintana didn’t have far to go. He was traded across town to the Chicago Cubs for the Cubs’ top two prospects, outfielder Eloy Jimenez and pitcher Dylan Cease, along with two other prospects. Jimenez was the Baseball America #14 prospect heading into this season and is likely to be higher on the list after the year he had in the minors (.312/.379/.568).
The other big trade made by the White Sox was sending closer David Robertson, setup man Tommy Kahnle, and third baseman Todd Frazier to the Yankees. The key player they got back was Blake Rutherford, who was the #45 prospect before the season. Prior to the trade, Kahnle was a dominant force in the bullpen. He struck out 60 batters in 36 innings and had a 2.50 ERA. Anthony Swarzak was also very good, with a 2.23 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 52 strikeouts in 48.1 innings. He was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in late July.
What Went Wrong
Shortstop Tim Anderson was a bright spot in 2016 when he was worth 2.5 WAR in 99 games. He rarely walked but a .375 BABIP helped him hit .283/.306/.432. This year he walked even less often than last year and his BABIP dropped to .328, which resulted in a .257/.276/.402 batting line. He was also worse on defense. He ended the year just barely above replacement-level.
As bad as Anderson was at the plate, he looked like Francisco Lindor compared to teammate Tyler Saladino. Saladino “hit” .178/.254/.229 in 281 plate appearances. Nobody with 250 or more plate appearances was worse, but teammate Adam Engel was close (.166/.235/.282). These two combined for 617 plate appearances with a .171/.244/.258 batting line. That’s brutal.
Matt Davidson hit 26 home runs but still managed to be a well below-average hitter because of a .260 OBP. After adjusting for league and ballpark effects, Davidson was 17 percent below average at the plate. Davison’s motto was go big or go home. He connected for 26 big flies but also struck out 165 times.
The White Sox signed free agent Derek Holland last offseason hoping he would help stabilize a pitching staff that had some young talent still developing. It didn’t work out. Holland had an ERA near 6.00 and was released in September having been paid $7.5 million for below replacement-level production.
In April, they signed Mike Pelfrey after he’d been released by the Tigers. At least Pelfrey didn’t cost much because the Tigers paid most of his $8 million contract. Pelfrey was even worse than Holland, with a 6.01 ERA in 21 starts. If you add together the 26 starts from Holland, 21 from Pelfrey, and 12 from Dylan Covey, you get 59 starts with a 6.33 ERA.
Then there’s James Shields, the $21 million pitcher with a 5.23 ERA (the Padres paid $11 million of his salary). Through May 6, 2016, Shields had pitched 2151.7 innings in his career with a 3.73 ERA. Then, this happened:
Since he gave up that fateful home run to Bartolo Colon, the only home run Colon has ever hit, Shields has a 5.96 ERA. Bartolo Colon broke James Shields. Some pitchers get “Steve Blass Disease”, which causes them to lose control of their pitches and walk the ballpark. Shields has “Bartolo Colon” disease, which has caused him to give up the most home runs of any pitcher over the last two years (tied with Ian Kennedy). I’m kidding, of course, but it’s been a rough go for Mr. Shields.
In the bullpen, reliever Chris Beck should have worn an asbestos uniform to protect himself from the fires he started. Of the 150 relievers who pitched at least 50 innings, Beck had the second-worst ERA (6.40) and worst home run rate (2.2 HR/9).
Top Offseason Priorities
According to CBS Sports, the Chicago White Sox ranked 24th with a payroll just under $100 million. They shed much of that payroll during the season with trades to add more talent to an already talented minor league system.
This is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster, with salaries from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus:
C Omar Navarez, pre-arbitration
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1B Jose Abreu, arbitration-eligible (projected: $17.9 million)
2B Yoan Moncada, pre-arbitration
SS Tim Anderson, $1 million
3B Yolmer Sanchez, arbitration-eligible (projected: $2.1 million)
LF Leury Garcia, arbitration-eligible (projected: 1.2 million)
CF Charlie Tilson, pre-arbitration
RF Avisail Garcia, arbitration-eligible (projected: 6.7 million)
DH Nicky Delmonico, pre-arbitration
UT Leury Garcia, arbitration-eligible (projected $1.2 million)
Chicago White Sox
3B Matt Davidson, pre-arbitration
SP James Shields, $21 million
SP Carlos Rodon, , arbitration-eligible (projected: $2 million)
SP Reynaldo Lopez, pre-arbitration
SP Lucas Giolito, pre-arbitration
SP Carson Fulmer, pre-arbitration
RP Nate Jones, $3.95 million
RP Danny Farquhar, arbitration-eligible (projected: 1.5 million)
RP Zach Putnam, arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.4 million)
RP Jake Petricka, arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.1 million)
RP Al Aburquerque, arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.1 million)
RP Juan Minaya, pre-arbitration
Free agents: C Geovany Soto, SP Mike Pelfrey, RP David Holmberg, SP Chris Volstad
The White Sox have made a flurry of trades over the past two years and some of the players they acquired have already spent some time in the big leagues. The big name is Yoan Moncada, who was a top five prospect prior to each of the last two years. He appeared in 54 games last year and held his own as a 22-year-old. He’s the first big name position player prospect to ascend to the big leagues, but more top prospects are on their way, including Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, and Alec Hansen.
On the pitching side, they already have Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito ready to hold down spots in the rotation, and Carlos Rodon will be there when his shoulder is healthy. Highly-regarded minor league pitching prospects on the way include Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease.
With the future on its way, the White Sox’ top priority for this offseason is to determine what to do with Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia, who are their two most tradeable veterans. If the team wants to continue the rebuild, one or both could be traded for young cost-controlled players who would fit with the talent they have on the way.
On the other hand, the team has shed enough salary to keep both for next season. Abreu is under team control as an arbitration-eligible player who could make $40 million total in the next two seasons before he’s eligible for free agency in 2020. Garcia is even cheaper and is coming off his best year. White Sox fans would likely prefer to have at least a few recognizable veterans to root for.
With the starting rotation having so many young pitchers and just the veteran James Shields, the White Sox could make it a priority to get another veteran pitcher on a short deal, like they attempted to do with Derek Holland before last season (and Mike Pelfrey during the season). It didn’t work out last year, but maybe they’ll find the next Charlie Morton this time around.
The bullpen lost numerous players last season, so adding some arms to the mix is another priority. Four relievers are arbitration-eligible and projected to make between $1.1 and $1.5 million. The team will have to decide which of these pitchers to bring back to compete for a spot next spring.
With all of the roster moves they’ve made to build to the future, the White Sox have committed to a path they hope will lead to a World Series title. How this will play out in a few years remains to be seen, but at least they have a vision and a plan.