New York Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka Changes the Offseason

Masahiro Tanaka declined his opt-out and will remain with the New York Yankees. His decision has big implications for their off season.

At some point in our lives, we all must strike a balance between risk and security. Would you risk a $67,000 income for a chance to earn much more? There’s no right answer; each of us must decide for ourselves.

What about $67,000,000? Would you risk all of that for a chance at nine figures? How much do you need? How much are you worth on the open market?

Tonight, we learned Masahiro Tanaka’s answer. He played it safe, declined his opt-out, and will collect $67 million over the next three seasons from the New York Yankees. Perhaps he didn’t want to take the risk, or perhaps he’s just comfortable in New York. Regardless, his decision to remain in pinstripes substantially impacts the team’s off-season plan.

Staffing the Rotation

As recently as March, 2017, the Yankees had zero reliable starting pitchers signed for next year. After a fantastic 2016 season, Tanaka seemed very likely to opt-out following the 2017 World Series. Michael Pineda and CC Sabathia were set to become free agents (which they now are). Luis Severino was given a last chance in the rotation after a horrific sophomore slump. An unheralded rookie named Jordan Montgomery won the fifth starter job, but he was yet to make his MLB debut.

More from Call to the Pen

Fast forward to October and things seemed somewhat more settled. Severino became an ace and an All-Star, who’s certain to receive down-ballot Cy Young votes. Montgomery started 29 games and established himself as a solid mid-rotation option. The Yankees acquired Sonny Gray from Oakland at the trade deadline and have him under contract through 2019.

So that left only two uncertain rotation spots to fill this winter. With Tanaka sticking around they now need only one more starting pitcher. They could go in one of several directions to fill this need:

The Yankees figure to make a strong push for Japanese two-way sensation Shohei Otani, who is maybe the best under-25 ballplayer in the world.
They can look to sign a top-tier free agent, such as Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta.
The franchise can pursue a mid-level free agent, possibly reuniting with Sabathia.
They could trade from their deep well of elite relievers and stacked farm system.
They can promote from within, with Adams getting the first “Chance” (awful pun intended).

Because Tanaka is hanging around, the Yankees now must choose only one of the above options instead of two.

Budget Limbo

The Yankees have been paying luxury tax seemingly since the dawn of currency. They last had a chance to get under the cap in 2014. They blew it by signing…Masahiro Tanaka. This year, with hefty contracts for Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez finally expiring, they once again have a chance to get under the limit. Furthering their efforts, the tax threshold itself is climbing up to $197 million.

It’s especially imperative for the Yankees to get under the cap for two reasons:

The tax amount compounds for consecutive years above the threshold. If they can get under this year they will save millions of dollars if they go over in the future by resetting their consecutive years paying tax.
Have you seen the free agent class for next winter?!?! It’s STACKED!!! Every dollar the Yankees save this off-season is a dollar they can rain down upon Bryce Harper and Manny Machado next year.

Next: Miami Marlins decline option on Ichiro Suzuki

Tanaka’s $22 million salary stands to be the highest on the team in 2018. His decision to stay in The Bronx fills an important and probably expensive hole in the rotation, but makes it that much harder to get under the luxury tax cap. If they fail to do so and the team misses out on a superstar a year later, the New York Yankees’ brass may not be so grateful for Tanaka’s decision to stick around. But that’s the choice they made when they gave Tanaka an opt-out clause in the first place. Now we’ll see whether the reward validates the risk.