Tampa Bay Rays: Possible Chris Archer trade destinations

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If the Tampa Bay Rays trade Chris Archer, where could he go?

The 2017 Tampa Bay Rays quietly finished 80-82 which was good enough for third place in the American League East. They did so without much fanfare or faith from the public. As they continue to lean toward returning to the postseason, they have a tough decision to face this offseason: do they trade Chris Archer?

Archer is affordable, talented, and a face of this franchise. Although his last two seasons haven’t been nearly as great as they were from 2013-2015, there’s a lot to love about him.

In 2017, Archer went 10-12 with a 4.07 ERA. A year prior he went 9-19 with a 4.02 ERA. While these numbers have certainly hurt his trade value, Archer posted fantastic strikeout numbers and limited his walks to career-bests in 2017. He might not have the same elite numbers as others. However, he’s still someone many competitive teams are dying to have.

In the right environment, Archer could do even better. He has pitched 200+ innings in each of the last three seasons, proving that even when the numbers aren’t up to par, he’s at least taking the field. Sometimes showing up adds, even more, value than raw talent.

For two years Archer has been among the leaders in innings pitched and strikeouts. He has yet to put together a solid season with wins dominating his stat sheet, but much of that is due to his own team’s struggles. If backed by a better offense and a more stable bullpen, many of his league-leading 19 losses in 2016 would’ve gone as wins or no-decisions.

That’s the past, and as we look at Archer’s future, I see a future for him with any of these teams.

Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are one of those regularly below .500 teams that have an opportunity to leap the standings next year. Among their major needs is an ace. Julio Teheran hit a wall last year, putting the Braves in a position to seek the services of a new number one starter.

The important thing to know about Archer is that he’s going to cost a lot. The Braves, thankfully, have the farm system to acquire just about any player not named Mike Trout. Years of losing and trading away many veterans have positioned Atlanta to make their move for Archer should they decide that he’s the right fit.

Atlanta has plenty of arms the Rays could want. If they get lucky, the Rays would also see Matt Adams and view him as a potential first baseman or DH next year. This would help the Braves keep the farm system together a little better while also making the best use of Adams. Unfortunately, I don’t see anything in Adams’ future better than a trade. Specifically, one to the American League would benefit him most.

Last winter the Braves phoned it in and signed R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon over the winter. This offseason it’s important to actually acquire long-term talents and not veterans on their last leg. Even the steep asking price for Archer shouldn’t be enough to scare off the Braves completely.

Chicago Cubs

Many won’t remember the time Archer spent in the Chicago Cubs’ farm system. Originally acquired in a trade with the Cleveland Indians which involved Mark DeRosa, the Cubs shipped Archer to the Tampa Bay Rays a few years before he’d crack the big leagues. It’s one of the few trades in the last ten years the Cubs probably regret most.

Now with two All-Star selections under his belt, it’s possible Archer returns to the Cubs a new man. The Southsiders don’t seem ready to re-sign Jake Arrieta so they will look elsewhere to fill the void. It doesn’t quite make sense to spend big on another free agent pitcher, although it’s not entirely unreasonable. So, let’s consider them making a trade for Archer.

Cubs’ manager Joe Maddon is already familiar with Archer during his days with the Rays. As we’ve seen with the Cubs, they are big on getting “their guys” back. So, this was a reason why Ben Zobrist ended up with the Cubs and why Theo Epstein targeted Jon Lester.

As far as what it would take to acquire Archer, the obvious candidates to include are Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, and Albert Almora. Likely, two of these and one lesser prospect is at the least the beginning of a deal if not the complete package. Archer’s team-friendly contract through 2021 with affordable buyouts are going to raise his price tag. If there’s any specific player the Tampa Bay Rays desire in the Cubs’ system, they aren’t about to trade Archer without him included in a deal.

Milwaukee Brewers

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The Milwaukee Brewers absolutely need to add an ace this offseason. Jimmy Nelson will open the year on the disabled list which makes it even more imperative to add. Since they do happen to have one of MLB’s top minor league systems, a trade for Archer looks possible.

Now that we know there’s a need let’s see if the Brewers have the means.

It’s tough to get into the heads of the Rays’ plans and know what it is they desire. Usually, a team with an 80-82 record would go after a playoff spot a lot harder than I expect Tampa Bay too. A lot of this has to do with their budget and small market status.

Since the Tampa Bay Rays seem to know how to and love developing pitchers, we can assume they want at least one of their top three pitching prospects. Either Luis Ortiz, Brandon Woodruff, or Corbin Burnes would be included. On top of that, the Rays would see if they could go after Lewis Brinson or Corey Ray.

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This is a fair price to pay for someone like Archer whose affordable contract would allow the Brewers to possibly even sign a free agent starter. Some seem to believe they are a favorite to add one of the top free agent pitchers this winter. Even if they do, Archer will remain a match.

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