Cleveland Indians: 2017 Season Review and Offseason Preview

What Went Right

My personal IBWAA Awards Ballot has four players from the Cleveland Indians are among my ten picks for AL MVP—Corey Kluber, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Carrasco. Kluber and Carrasco also made my top five for AL Cy Young, and Andrew Miller was one of the best three AL relievers. There is some serious talent on this team.

In just a couple years, Jose Ramirez has transformed himself from a light-hitting utility player into one of the best players in baseball. Two years ago, he hit .219/.291/.340 in 97 games. By wRC+, he was 28 percent below average as a hitter. He had a breakout season last year (121 wRC+) then took it to a whole other level this year (148 wRC+, fourth in the AL).

The most significant change in his batted ball profile was a substantial increase in his hard hit percentage. After being in the 23-27 percent range from 2014 to 2016.

Ramirez had a 34 percent hard-hit rate last year, which allowed him to double more than his rate of home runs per fly ball. One of the best moves the franchise has made recently was signing Ramirez to a five-year, $26 million extension before last season.

First baseman Carlos Santana had another Carlos Santana-like season. He’s been a consistent .360-ish OBP guy with 20-30 homers for the last seven years. When Santana wasn’t at first base, newcomer Edwin Encarnacion took that spot. E-Squared led the team in home runs and RBI and had the second-best on-base percentage of his career.

Corey Kluber led the AL in ERA, WHIP, complete games, and shutouts. He could win his second AL Cy Young Award in the last four years. By Fangraphs WAR, Kluber had one of the ten best seasons ever by a Cleveland starting pitcher.

Carlos Carrasco (18-6, 3.29 ERA, 3.10 FIP) was also outstanding. He’s been a productive pitcher for the last four years but has had difficulties with pitching deep into games and staying healthy for a whole season. He finally got there this year, with his first 200-inning season.

Cleveland starting pitchers led baseball with 81 wins and had the second-best ERA, behind only the Dodgers. Their bullpen was outstanding also, leading baseball in ERA and FIP. Andrew Miller had a second-straight season with an ERA under 1.50. Cody Allen saved 30 games and had a 2.94 ERA. Bryan Shaw led the team in appearances and relief innings.

What Went Wrong for the Cleveland Indians?

After playing just 11 games because of injuries last year, left fielder Michael Brantley started the year healthy but was back on the DL in August and missed seven weeks. He had surgery on his right ankle in October and could miss much of spring training while recovering. Even though he’s only played 101 games over the last two season, Brantley’s $11 million option for 2018 was picked up by the Cleveland Indians.

When Jason Kipnis was injured, Jose Ramirez moved to second base, and Giovanny Urshela played plenty of games at third base. He’s okay on defense but hasn’t hit a lick in two partial seasons in the big leagues. His career batting line is .225/.273/.314 (57 wRC+). He had the worst season of any position player on the team.

Urshela wouldn’t have played as much as he did if Kipnis had been healthy all year. Not only did injuries limit him to 90 games, he just hit .232/.291/.414 when he got on the field. He was particularly bad against lefties (64 wRC+).

Cleveland’s pitching was so good; it’s not easy to find many who disappointed. In the rotation, Josh Tomlin had a 4.98 ERA, but his 4.12 FIP suggests he pitched better than that. Danny Salazar was similar, with a 4.28 ERA and 3.48 FIP. In Salazar’s case, he had the best strikeout rate of any starter on the team, even better than Kluber or Carrasco.

Top Offseason Priorities

According to CBS Sports, on Opening Day last year, the Cleveland Indians ranked 17^th with a payroll just short of $125 million. That money was spread around a bit, with nine players making at least five million, including four players making nine million or more. The two most expensive players were Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Santana. They also had one of the best bargains in baseball, Jose Ramirez, who made $971,400 after signing a five-year extension just before the season started.

Now, this is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster, with salaries from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus:

• C Roberto Perez, $1.5 million
• 1B Edwin Encarnacion, $17 million
• 2B Jason Kipnis, $13.5 million
• SS Francisco Lindor, pre-arbitration
• 3B Jose Ramirez, $2.428 million
• LF Michael Brantley, $11 million
• CF Bradley Zimmer, pre-arbitration
• RF Lonnie Chisenhall, arbitration-eligible (projected: $5.8 million)
• DH Yandy Diaz, pre-arbitration
• C Yan Gomes, $5.95 million
• OF Brandon Guyer, $2.75 million
• OF Abraham Almonte, arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.1 million)
• SP Corey Kluber, $10.5 million
• SP Carlos Carrasco, $8 million
• SP Trevor Bauer, arbitration-eligible (projected: $7.7 million)
• SP Danny Salazar, arbitration-eligible (projected: $5.2 million)
• SP Josh Tomlin, $3 million
• RP Cody Allen, arbitration-eligible (projected: $10.8 million)
• RP Andrew Miller, $9 million
• RP Zach McAllister, arbitration-eligible (projected: $2.4 million)
• RP Dan Otero, arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.4 million)

Cleveland Indians Free agents: RF Jay Bruce, CF Austin Jackson, 1B Carlos Santana, RP Bryan Shaw, RP Joe Smith, RP Craig Breslow

Shortly after the World Series concluded, Cleveland picked up their team options on outfielder Michael Brantley ($11 million) and starting pitcher Josh Tomlin ($3 million). Brantley has struggled to stay healthy for the last two seasons but has been productive when on the field. He’ll be 31 next year and was worth around 2 WAR while playing just 90 games last year. One WAR is worth roughly eight million on the free agent market, so Brantley is a worthy keeper at $11 million next year.

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Josh Tomlin is coming off a year in which he had a 4.98 ERA, but he’s been a reliable rotation regular who can pitch 150-170 innings per year. That may not seem like much, but it’s not bad for $3 million. Trying to replace Tomlin with a free agent pick-up would be more expensive without any guarantee of improvement over what Tomlin can do.

With those decisions being made, Cleveland’s next priority is to decide which of their departing free agents they should attempt to re-sign. At the top of the list is Carlos Santana, who’s been with the team since 2010. He’s been an above-average hitter every year who can handle first base defensively (and is much better at the position than Encarnacion).

Santana has been a bargain for the team over the last few years, but free agency will increase his salary, likely into the $15-20 million per year range. The team signed Edwin Encarnacion to a three-year, $65 million deal last year and Encarnacion is three years older than Santana. At the very least, Santana will receive the $17.4 million qualifying offer. If he rejects it, Cleveland will receive a compensatory pick after the first round.

Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, and Bryan Shaw were productive members of the 2017 team and are also free agents, so deciding whether to join the bidding on them is another priority. Bruce will be one of the most coveted free agent outfielders on the market after hitting 36 homers and driving in 101 runs this year. Jackson had his best hitting year since 2012 but is more of a part-time player than a full-time starter these days. Shaw has been a reliable member of the Cleveland bullpen for the last five years, which may have moved him out of Cleveland’s price range.

Another priority will be deciding where Jason Kipnis will play in the future. Until last September, Kipnis had played exclusively at second base during his seven-year career. When center fielder Bradley Zimmer went down with an injury last September, Kipnis ended up playing 11 games in center.

Next: MLB Free Agency 2017-18: Biggest Holes for Every Team

For the Cleveland Indians, Kipnis could be back at second base next year, with Jose Ramirez returning to third base, or he could take an outfield spot. His future may depend on whether Carlos Santana comes back. If Santana signs elsewhere, outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall could play some first base, which would open up an outfield spot for Kipnis. Another possibility would be a trade.

The Cleveland Indians have plenty of talent on the roster to be the favorites to win the AL Central next year, but they have some decisions to make with their departing free agents and their in-house options. Most of these moves will be on the offensive side because their starting rotation is expected to return fully intact. That rotation was one of the best in baseball last year and should be among the best again next year.