MLB Free Agents Tracker: Top 25 Pitcher free agents for 2017-18
5. Addison Reed, RHRP
Age on 2018 opening day: 29
2017 stats: 77 G, 76 IP, 2-3, 19 SV, 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 4.9% BB, 24.8% K
Career stats: 402 2/3 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 6.2% BB, 25.5% K
Interested teams: Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Rockies, Tigers
CTTP prediction: Angels, 3 years, $62 million
Info: Reed is going to be the youngest closer-type on the market this offseason, and that should allow his market to be quite good. He is also the guy who is best at keeping extra guys off of base by limiting walks. He isn’t a guy who runs up to upper 90s with his fastball, but he pounds the zone, attacking hitters.
CTTP links:
4. Wade Davis, RHRP
Age on 2018 opening day: 32
2017 stats: 59 G, 58 2/3 IP, 4-2, 32 SV, 2.30 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.6% BB, 32.6% K
Career stats: 835 1/3 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.9%, 21.8% K
Interested teams: Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Rockies, Twins
CTTP prediction: Cardinals, 3 years, $64 million
Info: Davis has not had a ton of time as a closer yet, but he’s shown very well as a reliever since converting to the bullpen once the Royals acquired him from the Rays. He does struggle at times with allowing free passes, but he has the sort of dominant stuff with his four-seam fastball, cutter, and curve combo that allows him to rack up strikeouts. One worry that could be present is the work load that Davis experienced in the 2017 playoffs.
CTTP links:
3. Lance Lynn, RHSP
Age on 2018 opening day: 30
2017 stats: 33 GS, 186 1/3 IP, 11-8, 3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.1% BB, 19.7% K
Career stats: 977 2/3 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.9% BB, 22.3% K
Interested teams: Angels, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Orioles, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, Twins, Yankees
CTTP prediction: Phillies, 3 years, $74 million
Info: Lynn returned to the mound in 2017 after missing most of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery. While Lynn is not an elite starter with a front-line pedigree, he is consistent and typically racks up innings as a very solid 3/4 type that should work well in the middle of a top-end rotation or as a piece in a young rotation to provide steady innings and a good influence. Likely will end up earning more than he should due to the lack of other front-end options behind Darvish and Arrieta.
CTTP links:
2. Jake Arrieta, RHSP
Age on 2018 opening day: 32
2017 stats: 30 GS, 168 1/3 IP, 14-10, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.8% BB, 23.1% K
Career stats: 1,161 IP, 3.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.4% BB, 22.4% K
Interested teams: Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers, Red Sox, Twins, Yankees
CTTP prediction: Red Sox, 4 years, $112 million
Info: Arrieta will be a fascinating follow this offseason. After his dominant 2015, many thought he’d be the jewel of this year’s class. Since, he’s struggled to stay healthy and to show the same level of dominance on the mound. The effectiveness of Arrieta can really be traced to his cutter, which was a pitch he developed in Chicago, and threw almost 1/3 of the time in 2015, but it’s lost nearly 3 MPH of velocity since and he trusts it significantly less, throwing the pitch 14% of the time in 2017. Arrieta still has the pitch mix to be a guy who fits at the top of a rotation, but whether he’s the guy you want as a #1 or an ace is the question to be answered.
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1. Yu Darvish, RHSP
Age on 2018 opening day: 31
2017 stats: 31 GS, 186 2/3 IP, 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.6% BB, 27.3% K
Career stats: 832 1/3 IP, 3.42 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.9% BB, 29.7% K
Interested teams: Dodgers, Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Twins, Yankees
CTTP prediction: Twins, 4 years, $117 million
Info: Darvish is the clear elite mark in this year’s pitching class. After missing all of 2015 and portions of 2014 and 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, Darvish was back in 2017. He had the same dominant strikeout rate, kept hitters off base with free passes, and he’s seen his four-seam fastball tick up in velocity along with his cutter finding another degree of movement. Good pitching costs big, and this year there are more teams after the top two guys than usual because of a lack of depth in the free agent class.
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Next: MLB Free Agent Tracker - Top 25 Hitters
This should be very fun to track, so keep on coming back and checking in to see how our predictions do and how rumors break down this offseason!