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Phillies offseason secrecy

By Tal Venada |
JUPITER, FL - FEBRUARY 23: Baseballs and a bat sit on the field of the Miami Marlins during a team workout on February 23, 2016 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Rob Foldy/Getty Images)
JUPITER, FL - FEBRUARY 23: Baseballs and a bat sit on the field of the Miami Marlins during a team workout on February 23, 2016 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Rob Foldy/Getty Images)
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Franco will need more than home runs for major playing time. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images.
Franco will need more than home runs for major playing time. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

With surprises in the offing, other franchises, writers, and fans, die-hard and casual, have only speculation regarding potential trades and free-agent signings for general manager Matt Klentak of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Winter forecast:

Some people have difficulty keeping any information in strict confidence, while others will take it to the grave.

The previous Phillies’ front office did not confirm leaks from other organizations, but the current higher-ups have even their competitors guessing. Up until now, the red pinstripes have only offered a few clues during late September interviews. So, what does a scribe have to be? A detective!

According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Phillies are the mystery team for the offseason most GMs picked in a recent poll. And they’re anticipating something big may be ahead. Will Klentak ink a free agent like right-hander Alex Cobb for 2018? Or if the wheeler-dealer favors a swap, Giancarlo Stanton could hit behind Rhys Hoskins.

As for predictions, other writers will provide reasons why Stanton is a match for the Phils, and their articles will cover many other big-name stars Klentak could pursue. Yes, the locals have over $150 million available and a well-stocked farm system, but the plan is to rebuild with young inexpensive talent.

In other words, the idea wasn’t to develop prospects and then trade them. And they will not, for instance, be signing a 31-year-old starter for five summers or more because he’ll be at least 36 and declining at the end of the contract.

From a distance, the locals need pitching, have major financial resources, and have previously spent up to the threshold of the luxury tax: Any amount above $197 million for ’18 will incur the penalty.

However, the execs detest bidding wars and buying rotation arms even if they’re ready to contend, and they’re not. But even though righties Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Cobb are over-30 hurlers, they will have no shortage of suitors. Or rumors!

As for Stanton, Klentak had more interest in Christian Yelich because he’s 25 and a left-side bat. He has .300-average potential, can blast 15-20 homers, and is under contract for the next four campaigns at $44.5 million.

However, the decision-maker was only willing to take on Stanton’s contract to acquire Yelich in the package. Since then, though, national pens list the Phillies as one of the clubs pursuing Stanton by himself. Forgotten or Embellished?

THE AMERICAN PASTIME THEN: “There are only two seasons – winter and baseball.” – Bill Veeck
Hoskins could propel the Phillies toward a Wild Card berth. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images.
Hoskins could propel the Phillies toward a Wild Card berth. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. /

Last winter, the Internet had some memorable comments regarding the addition of more offense. One poster believed signing a certain right-handed outfielder was not only the right move but also knew it would happen. It didn’t! Telling him the red and white needed a left-handed bat with pop for the five-hole didn’t convince this somewhat belligerent fan because the hitter produced a .280 mark against same-side pitchers.

Hypothetically, if a player has 10 hits in 28 at-bats against run-of-the-mill hurlers but only one knock for 10 ABs versus top closers, he then goes 11 for 38 and has a .290 average against right-handers. But only .100 versus those ninth-inning firemen!

In the class of ’19, the Phils might have interest in portsiders Clayton Kershaw or Dallas Keuchel with the latter being the favored stud. Kershaw will want more seasons than the red pinstripes will risk, but other franchises including the Los Angeles Dodgers won’t consider that a problem. On the other hand, Keuchel could be a target if management feels he’s the piece to get the team deep into the playoffs. A big if!

In the market for a bat, Klentak will probably have Bryce Harper in mind for a major expenditure: He’s a left-side hitter with power, he’ll be 26 in a year, and the Washington Nationals have financial issues due to their territorial dispute for TV rights with the Baltimore Orioles.

Basically, Harper is the big-dollar acquisition management will probably spend their money on, while they will gradually increase the salaries of their young standouts to keep them for the long run.

On the other hand, inking Manny Machado may depend as much on Maikel Franco as Hoskins. The GM with Hoskins and Harper might not want another pricey slugger with his current options for the hot corner. One is Scott Kingery.

THE WAY IT WAS: “People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.” – Rogers “the Rajah” Hornsby
Chatwood is probably the immediate target for the Phils. Photo by David Maxwell/Getty Images.
Chatwood is probably the immediate target for the Phils. Photo by David Maxwell/Getty Images. /

With everybody guessing, the Phillies will probably add righty Tyler Chatwood: He has a mid-90’s fastball, has an excellent ground-ball rate, and avoids hard contact. His numbers away from Coors Field are decent, he’s 27, and he currently makes $4.4 million.

However, until the top pitcher’s sign, that market will be at a standstill, but Klentak can quietly woo Chatwood with a $32 million offer for four summers. And he’ll only be 31 at the end of the deal.

Chatwood:

  • 2016 Away: 13  Gms., 8-1 with a 1.69 ERA for 80 Inn.
  • 2017 Away: 16  Gms., 13 Starts, 5-7 with a 3.49 ERA for 77 1/3 Inn.

According to Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times, Shohei Ohtani (the correct spelling) wants to be the best baseball player–not a pitcher–in the world. But he’s uncertain about being a two-way star because he must first see if he gets that opportunity. That stated, the preference of starters who wanted to be more complete players was to hit, run the bases, and field, not just pitch.

More from Call to the Pen

Otani, 23:

  • 2015: 22 Gms., 15-5 with a 2.24 ERA for 160 2/3 Inn.
  • 2016: 21 Gms., 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA for 140 Inn.
  • 2017: 5 Gms., 3-2 with a 3.20 ERA for 25 1/3 Inn.

Based on his choices, Ohtani will pick from contenders, American League organizations, rebuilding clubs, and west coast franchises. Geography is a consideration because 8 p.m. PT is 1 p.m. GMT+9 in Japan.

But while an AL contender can offer serious October baseball, Ohtani would likely platoon as a designated hitter, but he’d bat more with another Junior Circuit team. On the other hand, a National League organization during restructuring could have him start every fifth day and be an outfield regular as well.

Otani, 23:

  • 2016: 104 Gms., 382 PA, .322, 22 HR and 67 RBI.
  • 2017: 65 Gms., 231 PA, .322, 8 HR and 31 RBI.

Next: Phillies: Pitching decisions magnified

For 2018, the Phillies have 12 position players for 11 spots after Kingery’s promotion, one extra catcher to move and a need for an additional outfielder. But acquiring a hitter for the next 162 seems to be improbable because those 12 are young and inexpensive: the whole idea of rebuilding and development. Therefore, when you consider the front-office secrecy, what big things could Klentak be up to? Chatwood and Ohtani!

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