Houston Astros: Carlos Beltran and the Hall of Fame

Fresh off winning a World Series with the Houston Astros, Carlos Beltran has called it a career. Will his next stop be in Cooperstown?

After 20 years, Carlos Beltran finally won the World Series. After seven trips to the postseason, including his first stint with the Houston Astros, Beltran was finally able to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy aloft, celebrating a title. Predictably, he walked off into the sunset afterwards, retiring while on top.

It was a fitting capstone to a stellar career. Beltran was a nine time All Star and a three time Gold Glover, winning the 1999 AL Rookie of the Year award, and two Silver Sluggers. He produced a lifetime .279/.350/.486 batting line, hitting 565 doubles, 435 homers, and stealing 312 bases. Beltran is one of eight players in major league history to hit 300 homers and steal 300 bases.

Beltran is also part of a very interesting group of players in baseball history. He is one of six players with more than 2500 hits and 400 homers, but less than 3000 hits and 500 homers. Three of those players, Lou Gehrig, Billy Williams and Andre Dawson, are currently in the Hall of Fame. The other two, Chipper Jones and Vladimir Guerrero, are likely to be enshrined in the near future.

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Those groupings of players gives an interesting context for Beltran’s career. Let us begin with the second grouping first. All five of the other players to have more than 2500 hits and 400 homers, but less than 3000 hits and 500 homers, are either in Cooperstown, or will be. If we are looking at that statistical accomplishment, then Beltran is a virtually sure-fire Hall of Famer.

Then, we look at the 300-300 club. Only two of those players, Willie Mays and Dawson, are in the Hall of Fame. Barry Bonds will likely be enshrined in the next few years. Alex Rodriguez will have more interesting case, and may well be inducted, but his PED suspensions will hurt his chances. Then, there are Reggie Sanders, Steve Finley, and Bobby Bonds. Of that trio, only the elder Bonds appeared on the ballot more than once; Finley received four votes, while Sanders was shut out.

It is interesting to note that, of those two categories, only Dawson appears in both. Dawson is also considered to be Beltran’s closest comparison according to baseballreference.com, scoring a 928 out of 1000 on their similarity score. So, can Dawson’s own Hall of Fame odyssey give us an idea as to Beltran’s case for induction?

Houston Astros

It took Dawson nine years to be enshrined, moving slowly from his 45.3% debut in 2002 to 77.9% in 2010. Dawson was also vastly underappreciated during his playing days, perhaps due to spending most of his prime in Montreal. Although he had a couple of great years with the Cubs, including his MVP season in 1987, Dawson’s knees had virtually given out by the time he began to be recognized for his ability.

In some ways, Beltran was also underappreciated during his career, much like Dawson. However, his greatness came to be recognized towards the end of his career, as he glided softly into into greatness. His first run to the World Series with the St. Louis Cardinals helped push Beltran into the spotlight, allowing his accomplishments to be noticed on by the world at large. By the time his career came to an end in Houston, Beltran ranked in the top 50 players all time in doubles, homers, total bases, and RBI, while ranking 61st in hits and 73rd in WAR.

Beltran also performed well when the spotlights were on. During his postseason career, he had a .307/.412/.609 batting line, hitting 16 homers and stealing 11 bases. His impressive postseason debut with the Astros in 2004, where he nearly pushed Houston to their first World Series, was nothing short of remarkable.

What does all of this mean for Beltran’s Hall of Fame candidacy? While Dawson is a close comparison, he likely will not need to wait those nine years before induction. Yet, Beltran may not be the first ballot Hall of Famer that some believe. As great as Beltran was, he may well be inducted on his second or third ballot, mainly because he did not reach one of those ‘magical milestones’ that a segment of the voters seem to enjoy.

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Carlos Beltran went out on top with the Houston Astros. A Hall of Fame plaque is likely to be his next honor, but it may take a couple of years.