Cy Young Award 2017: The BBWAA is getting smarter

Cy Young Award 2017 and beyond, Winners Versus WAR

The Cy Young Award was given out for the first time in 1956. In the first 11 years, the award was given to only one pitcher in baseball, not one from each league.

This changed in 1967 when the best pitchers from each league were recognized for the first time. Two years later, there was a tie in the American League when Mike Cuellar and Denny McLain were co-winners. That is still the only tie in Cy Young Award history.

Including that tie, 114 Cy Young Awards have been handed out since 1956. The winner has matched the top pitcher in bWAR 49 percent of the time. The top pitcher in fWAR has won the Cy Young 45 percent of the time. That’s a difference of five pitchers in 62 seasons.

There has been a significant change in how often the Cy Young winner is the top pitcher in WAR over the last 60 years. The 1991 season looks like a good demarcation point. From 1956-1990, the Cy Young winner matched the top pitcher in bWAR 35 percent of the time.

Since then, they have matched 65 percent of the time. The fWAR leader matched the Cy Young winner 33 percent of the time from 1956-1990 and 57 percent of the time since.

• 35%–Cy Young matched bWAR leader, 1956-1990
• 65%–Cy Young matched bWAR leader, 1991-2017
• 33%–Cy Young matched fWAR leader, 1956-1990
• 57%–Cy Young matched fWAR leader, 1991-2017

When you expand it to consider how often the Cy Young winner finished in the top three in WAR, the improvement is even more impressive. Before 1990, this happened 43 percent of the time with bWAR and 33 percent of the time with fWAR. Since 1991, the Cy Young winner has finished in the top three in bWAR 81 percent of the time and in the top three in fWAR 80 percent of the time.

• 43%–Cy Young finished in top 3 in bWAR, 1956-1990
• 81%–Cy Young finished in top 3 in bWAR, 1991-2017
• 33%–Cy Young finished in top 3 in fWAR, 1956-1990
• 80%–Cy Young finished in top 3 in fWAR, 1991-2017

The last 11 years have been even more impressive. Since 2007, the Cy Young winner has finished in the top three in bWAR 91 percent of the time and in the top three in fWAR 95 percent of the time. These days, the Cy Young winner is almost always someone who is one of the best pitchers in baseball.

This development has eliminated the truly terrible choice. Over the last dozen years, there hasn’t been a Cy Young winner who did not finish in the top five in both versions of WAR. In years past, there were times when the Cy Young winner ranked between 26^th and 30^th in bWAR and as high as 79^th in fWAR (1987 Steve Bedrosian). We don’t see those types of winners lately, such as the CY Young Award 2017 winners.