MLB MVP Award: BBWAA voting converges with WAR
Bad Choices by the BBWAA
In 2007, Jimmy Rollins finished eighth in fWAR and was almost two wins worse than David Wright, but still won the NL MVP. The Phillies made the playoffs by a single game over the Mets and Rollins led the league in games, plate appearances, at-bats, runs, and triples. He also hit 30 homers and stole 41 bases. Still, Wright was the more valuable player based on fWAR.
In 2006, Ryan Howard won the MVP despite finishing ninth in fWAR. He led the league with 58 homers and 149 RBI, but was still not as good as Albert Pujols. This was a slightly unusual win because Howard’s Phillies didn’t make the playoffs while Pujols’ Cardinals did. Many times, that would have been enough to put Pujols over the top. In this case, Howard’s big home run and RBI totals likely made the difference for the voters.
Despite those two seasons with questionable picks, the NL has a better recent history than the AL. When Miguel Cabrera won back-to-back MVPs in 2012 and 2013, he was 3.9 fWAR worse than Trout the first year and 3.0 fWAR worse the second. Trout also finished ahead of Josh Donaldson in 2015 but “The Bringer of Rain” took the trophy.
Before this season, Trout led the AL in fWAR five straight years and has just two MVP Awards to show for it. Trout could easily have five MVP trophies in his wood-paneled den where he likes to track the weather. If he hadn’t missed one-fourth of this season, he likely would have led the AL in fWAR for a sixth straight year.
The AL had a couple of really awful picks in the early 2000s. Justin Morneau was 38th in fWAR in 2006 when Grady Sizemore was the league leader and outplayed him by 4.1 wins. Sizemore led the league again in 2008, but Dustin Pedroia took the MVP over him despite finishing fourth in fWAR.
In 2002, it was Miguel Teajada (27th in fWAR) who stole one from Alex Rodriguez, just as Jason Giambi (5th in fWAR) had done two years earlier. The Tejada over A-Rod pick was particularly bad because A-Rod was worth more than double the fWAR as Tejada, beating him 10.0 to 4.5. Tejada played on the Moneyball Oakland A’s, who won 103 games on a low-budget payroll, so he had a strong narrative.
The two worst picks in the last 40 years were also in the American League. For some reason, the AL seems to have had more really bad MVP picks than the NL during this time. In 1996, Juan Gonzalez was 52nd in the AL in fWAR, yet was named MVP. It should have been Ken Griffey, Jr. (or even Alex Rodriguez).
Juan Gone had a great year at the dish but was terrible in the field. He also played in the second-best park for hitters, which helped his numbers. He was worth 3.5 fWAR. Griffey (and A-Rod) were both very good at the plate and in the field and both were worth more than 9 fWAR.
The Juan Gonzalez MVP in 1996 was the second-worst choice over the last 40 years. Number one on the list is Willie Hernandez in 1984. Hernandez was the Tigers closer who won the Cy Young and MVP Award by pitching 140.3 innings with a 1.92 ERA. He was worth 3.2 fWAR. Shortstop Cal Ripken, Jr. hit .304/.374/.510, with 103 runs, 27 homers, and 86 RBI in 162 games (of course). He was worth 9.8 fWAR.