Boston Red Sox: Top 10 Prospects List for 2018

We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound.
We start our top 10 prospects for every team with the Boston Red Sox!

Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the Boston Red Sox.

This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.

The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player.

Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.

System overview

Last year’s list

Dave Dombrowski continued to do things that he’s always done, moving half of the top 4 prospects in deals along with moving a number more on the top 10 list and beyond. Of course, any Red Sox fan out there would tell you that Chris Sale was certainly worth it, especially in light of the injuries to David Price and the struggles of essentially the rest of the rotation. However, he also spent a significant amount of assets to acquire Tyler Thornburg, and Thornburg ended up having Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery and missing all of 2017.

while (Dombrowski) traded away a number of prospects…, he always had players that other teams wanted when it came time to trade

However, one of the things that was always underappreciated about Dombrowski’s time in Detroit is that while he traded away a number of prospects and typically the system was not “deep” for the Tigers, he always had players that other teams wanted when it came time to trade. The Tigers system developed excellent players that filled into the major league level or else they were utilized in trade to acquire pieces for the major league level.

The Red Sox drafts the last two seasons have shown exactly the types of guys that Dombrowski specialized in with Detroit – guys with big, big tools. He’s brought in guys with premium velocity but a huge need to work on finding the strike zone. He’s brought in guys who can run at a 70 level on the scouting 20 to 80 scale or have power with a future 65-70 grade. Those big time tools often turn into something with the right type of development department around them.

The Red Sox fans may not like where their team sits in the prospect power rankings while Dombrowski is in the head seat, but he will use the farm system to help to create a winner for the Boston fans.

Next: #9 and #10

10. Bryan Mata, RHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/3/1999 (18)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Greenville
2017 Stats: 17 GS, 77 IP, 3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8% BB, 22.7% K

Info: Deceptively large for his age, Mata stands a very mature 6’3″ tall and looks much more like 185-190 pounds than his listed 160 pounds. He’s significant projection at this point after signing in January of 2016 out of Venezuela at just 16.

Mata showed very well in the Dominican Summer League at 17, with a 2.80 ERA in 61 innings and a strikeout per inning pitched. In 2017, the Red Sox jumped Mata all the way up to low-A. He responded well, with a 3.74 ERA over 77 innings, posting a 26/74 BB/K and a 1.31 WHIP.

While he’s already bigger than his listed weight, Mata has the sort of frame that still projects well. That bodes well for Mata, as he already possesses a fastball that sits in the low-90s and can reach into the mid-90s with relative ease in his delivery.

While he’s already bigger than his listed weight, Mata has the sort of frame that still projects well.

Currently, he makes a living off of the fastball and locating it well as his curve and change, though both flashing above-average in movement and deception, still are a long way off in their development.

Mata has the type of raw stuff and frame currently to profile well as a low-end #3, high-end #4 starter, but if he can fill out that frame with a few more ticks of velocity and/or really get ahold of his secondary stuff, he could certainly profile more as a frontline guy.

The Red Sox haven’t been afraid to push Mata thus far, so he’ll likely open 2017 with their high-A club in Salem, but remember that he’ll still be 18 when the season opens, so it would not be surprising to see him struggle. If there’s anyone on this list who could make me look silly in a year, Mata’s the guy.

9. Roniel Raudes, RHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 1/16/1998 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Salem
2017 Stats: 23 GS, 116 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 8.6% BB, 18.5% K

Info: Nicaragua may not be a baseball hot bed, but Raudes is certainly working to turn some heads on the country. After impressing thoroughly by holding his own at 18 years old in the South Atlantic League, the Red Sox promoted him to Salem in the Carolina league in 2017.

With Salem, Raudes found that his elite control and command wasn’t quite as sharp and his lack of premium velocity was a real noted absence against the top pitchers in the Carolina League. It didn’t help that balls fell in at a near-.350 clip against Raudes all season.

What was impressive, however, was to watch Raudes improve over the season. He had his best strikeout rate in the final month of the season, but he fought through a .400+ BABIP in the month as well. It’s notable that Raudes did not face a single batter younger than him the entire season in 2017.

His fastball is looking like it may top out sitting around 90 with a peak of 93 or so. His change has tremendous arm deception along with excellent movement as well. The curve is more of a power curve, working in the low-80s with tight spin and a sharp break that can often look more like a slider than a curve.

With that mix, Raudes will rely on his excellent location to be a quality back end starter as he likely does not have a bullpen repertoire. He’s only going to be 20 in 2018 and will likely open the season in AA, giving him a real chance for a late season call up before he hits 21 if he performs well next season, quite an impressive floor to have for any prospect.

Next: #7 and #8

6. C.J. Chatham, SS

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/22/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: rookie GCL Red Sox, low-A Greenville Drive
2017 Stats: .316/.381/.474, 21 PA, 1 HR, 0 SB, 2/1 BB/K

Info: After a positive start to his career in 2016 when he was drafted in the second round out of Florida Atlantic and played 35 games between the Gulf Coast League and New York-Penn League, Chatham had recurring hamstring issues wipe away all but 7 games of his 2017.

This delays what was looking to be a very exciting young career with a feasible middle infield prospect with a capable bat and glove. The biggest issue for Chatham is really his age. He’s going to be 23 this offseason, and he’s played one minor league game in a full-season league at this point. That leaves a long road ahead.

However, the profile is such that he could certainly jump up the system in a hurry. Chatham is build rare for a shortstop, standing 6’4″ and just under 200 pounds, long and rangy, but also very athletic and able to handle the shortstop position well.

If injuries force his way off of shortstop, he has the instincts up the middle to work well at second or he has enough arm and more than enough arm accuracy to handle third base if need be.

At the plate, Chatham is really not anything special in any one aspect. He has an above-average contact ability with the ability to consistently put the barrel on the ball. He doesn’t exactly have huge power, so that barrel leads to excellent gap power. His long legs don’t lead to major base-stealing skills, but he is an above-average runner when underway and has good instincts as a base runner.

Chatham will hopefully open 2018 with Greenville in the South Atlantic League, but don’t be surprised if the Red Sox push him quickly up the ladder. If all else fails, Chatham has a power arm off the mound that could be a fallback path for him.

5. Mike Shawaryn, RHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/17/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Greenville Drive, high-A Salem Red Sox
2017 Stats: 26 GS, 134 2/3 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.4% BB, 29.6% K

Info: Coming out of the University of Maryland, many people were blown away when they saw Shawaryn’s performance in the New-York Penn League last summer, when he threw 15 2/3 innings, striking out 22 and putting up a 2.87 ERA. He was known to have a big arm, but many felt his stuff backed up in his draft year.

Shawaryn was up to the mid-90s in his pro debut in 2016 in the NYPL, and he built on that in 2017, touching 97-98 on the top end this season, though he sat more in the 92-93 range. Shawaryn doesn’t have a huge frame (6’2″, 200-210 pounds) or any one pitch that’s a plus-plus pitch (or arguably even a plus pitch), but he has a very good pitch mix with three above-average pitches and excellent control.

Shawaryn doesn’t have a huge frame or any one pitch that’s a plus-plus pitch , but he has a very good pitch mix with three above-average pitches and excellent control.

In 2017, Shawaryn split his season between low-A and high-A, and the results were fairly even with both spots, which is impressive. The biggest bugaboo for Shawaryn on the season was his high flyball rate, and that led to plenty of extra base hits on the stuff that did fall, though he only allowed a .228 average against.

Shawaryn has a low-3/4 arm slot, and while it allows his slider to have a unique sweeping angle and his change to have an equally unique deception, many guys with that arm slot struggle with remaining healthy, and it can be something that can be an issue as hitters get a better look as he climbs the ladder to face upper-level hitters.

Shawaryn will be in the upper minors in 2018, likely in AA to open the season, and if he continues to make progress, he would work in the middle to back of a rotation or he could be dynamite if he was moved to a relief role.

Next: #3 and #4

4. Sam Travis, 1B

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/27/1993 (24)
2017 teams/levels played for: AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, MLB Boston Red Sox
2017 Stats: Minors: .270/.351/.375, 342 PA, 6 HR, 6 SB, 37/57 BB/K; Majors: .263/.325/.342, 83 PA, 0 HR, 1 SB, 6/23 BB/K

Info: If the Red Sox had a dynamic hitter to plug in at DH, especially a left-handed hitting one, Travis would be a perfect guy to fit at first base for the team with excellent skills around the bag, a good glove, and excellent instincts. He also brings a worthwhile bat to offer as well.

The issue is that the Red Sox really need power in their lineup, really love their outfielders, and already have Hanley Ramirez for 2018 with a vesting option for 2019 that should not be terribly difficult to reach. Ramirez is making $22.75 million in 2018, and that 2019 option would pay him another $22 million. That’s not going to be easy to move in the trade market to open a spot for Travis.

If the Red Sox had a dynamic hitter to plug in at DH, Travis would be a perfect guy to fit at first base for the team

Travis was the perfect yin to Kyle Schwarber’s yang in college, hitting with tremendous bat control and pounding the gaps while Schwarber sold out for the fences. A fairly good athlete, Travis actually played some third base in college due to his excellent instincts, but his arm makes that really not an option at the pro level.

Travis reminds me a ton on the field and at the plate of a former Marlins (among others) outfielder Jeff Conine in his build, swing, and approach. Conine was a guy who hit 20 or more home runs just 3 times. However, he was a mostly full-time player for roughly 14 years, playing 17 total years, hitting .285/.347/.443 over his career.

Travis will be on the Red Sox 40-man roster in 2018 as he needs to be otherwise he’d be exposed to waivers, and his skill level would be gobbled up quickly. However, the Red Sox likely won’t have a major league spot for him, in spite of his minor league .295/.360/.434 line over 327 games, with much of that spent in the upper minors.

3. Tanner Houck, RHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 6/29/1996 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A-ball Lowell Spinners
2017 Stats: 10 GS, 22 1/3 IP, 3.63 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.2% BB, 25.5% K

Info: If there was a college pitcher more suited to a Dombrowski draft than Houck in the 2017 draft, it’s hard to know who it would have been. Houck has an elite sinker, arguably a double-plus pitch. He mixes in a slider with average movement but excellent location, and that pairing was all he really needed to dominate in the SEC, arguably the best college baseball conference there is.

As happens in draft coverage and scouting, people began to pick apart Houck, especially when he came out of the gates a bit slow in the 2017 collegiate season before the draft. That caused his value to fall from one of the 3-5 best college arms in the draft to the 24th pick overall to the Red Sox.

Houck then came out in his pro debut and showed exactly what the Red Sox assumed he would, striking out 25 in 22 1/3 innings and allowing no home runs to leave the yard in that time, getting hitters to pound the ball into the ground.

Houck’s hard, heavy sinker sits in the mid-90s and can touch 98, and the movement is incredible on the pitch, especially with his unique crossfire delivery. Houck showed off multiple grips on his slider, allowing him to utilize a sweeping slider that he was known for in college, but also to snap off a sharp-breaking slider rarely as well that had a bit of cutter-slider hybrid to it.

At 6’5″ and 225 pounds, Houck is built to be a workhorse. His arm slot and his step-across delivery has some thinking he may end up as a reliever in the end, but Houck is already showing more ability to start than many thought he had already, so don’t count out the rotation quite yet!

Next: #1 and #2

2. Jay Groome, LHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/23/1998 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: short-season A-ball Lowell Spinners, low-A Greenville Drive
2017 Stats: 14 GS, 55 1/3 IP, 5.69 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 12.3% BB, 29.6% K

Info: There were few high school pitchers in the last 4-5 years more hyped pre-draft than Groome before the 2016 draft. If you were a draft writer and did a mock draft with Groome not being selected until #7 or #8 in the draft, you were seen as out of your mind and crazy. In the end, Groome was selected 12th overall.

After missing nearly two full months, Groome opened with the Red Sox NYPL club after finishing 2016 there. He moved up to low-A, but the South Atlantic League really ate him up, as he had a 6.70 ERA for Greenville. He also saw the Sally League take him deep at a 20% HR/FB rate.

Groome still has a fastball that can touch the upper 90s, but it’s seemed to flatten out as a pro. He got excellent arm side run on the pitch as a high schooler, but in his time in low-A this season, whether it was from over-throwing or from the lat strain that delayed the start of his 2017, the fastball was quite straight.

Groome was highly regarded for his curve and a sinking change that he didn’t have to use much in high school but had excellent movement. The curve is about the one thing that played on the season, and it helped Groome to generate excellent swing and miss. The issue with the curve is that he does not have great handle on the location of the curve.

While 2017 was essentially a lost season, Groome has the frame (6’6″, 225 pounds) and pitch repertoire to be an elite prospect, so the Red Sox will be very patient with Groome. It would not surprise if he returned to Greenville or if the Red Sox attempted to push him, but Groome may be heading down the path of a guy that Dombrowski moves, and possibly soon.

1. Michael Chavis, 3B

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/11/1995 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Salem Red Sox, AA Portland Sea Dogs
2017 Stats: .282/.347/.563, 524 PA, 31 HR, 2 SB, 39/113 BB/K

Info: Coming out of high school, Chavis was seen as a possible power hitting shortstop with good hands and a power arm. He’s filled out significantly since, which led to a move to the hot corner in instructional league in his draft season. If it weren’t for Rafael Devers in his own organization, Chavis would be on the tip of the tongue of every Red Sox fan as one of the major pieces of the future.

Chavis struggled in 2015 to put together power and contact in his quick bat, in spite of not having an overly-long bat path, which befuddled Red Sox officials and outside scouts alike. He then had an injury-riddled season in 2016 that was difficult to see positive results, but he did see a ton of loud contact begin to be made.

This season all of that came together for Chavis. After hitting for a 1.029 OPS with Salem in the Carolina League, he was promoted to AA and continued showing excellent power and the ability to get his quick bat around on any pitch. Combined on the season, he hit 35 doubles and 31 home runs.

If it weren’t for Rafael Devers in his own organization, Chavis would be on the tip of the tongue of every Red Sox fan as one of the major pieces of the future

Chavis has worked hard in the field to build himself into a passable third baseman with his biggest issue being on balls that he has to come in on. His big arm still plays well, which could lead to a move to a corner outfield spot as Chavis is more athletic than his stolen base numbers would show.

After a big showing in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit 4 home runs in 92 at bats against some of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Chavis is likely going to be among the top 50 prospects in all of the game. With Devers ahead of him, Chavis is likely looking at either a position change or a role as Dombrowski’s next trade piece.

Next: Newcomer to watch

2017 Acquisition: Danny Diaz, SS

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 1/2/2001 (17)
2017 teams/levels played for: None
2017 Stats: None

Info: Before I get into the elite talent than is Danny Diaz, let me first take a moment to recognize that this list changed in the last few weeks before I put it up. Daniel Flores was as high as #4 in my list as I sorted through and weighed different opinions on players before his untimely death. Flores was incredibly talented and his loss to the organization is huge for the Red Sox.

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Now that we’ve covered that, onto Diaz. While the SS next to Diaz is likely just going to be momentary, his impact bat was worth the Red Sox spending seven figures on him coming out of Venezuela. His 6’1″, 170-180 pounds frame has plenty of room to add and grow, which will likely lead to a move to third base. He also has the plus arm to make that transition well.

Diaz has one tool that left scouts drooling at every showcase. His ability to take big cuts is nearly unparalleled in the 2017 international market, with a swing that already maximizes swing plane along with an excellent recognition of the pitches that fit his swing path and how to lay off other pitches that don’t work.

Reports from places like Baseball America and MLB Pipeline highly praise Diaz’s makeup and his likely ability to handle coaching and a future position change well. Red Sox fans should be excited to see him for sure!

Next: Why Sox need Stanton

That’s the Red Sox top 10 prospects going into the 2018 season. Who was too high? Who was too low? Who was missing? Let us know in the comments below!!