Los Angeles Dodgers: 2017 Season Review and Offseason Preview

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What went right, what went wrong, and what are the top priorities for the Los Angeles Dodgers this offseason?

In the long history of the Los Angeles Dodgers franchise, which goes back to 1884 when they were called the Brooklyn Atlantics, the 2017 team won the second-most regular season games in franchise history. Only the 1953 team of Roy Campanella, Jackie Robinson, Pee Wee Reese, and Duke Snider won more.

This year’s Los Angeles Dodgers were good in nine-inning games (.638 winning percentage), extra-inning games (.667), one-run games (.568), and blowouts (.698). They were good on the road (.580) and very good at home (.704).

They also had one of the most incredible streaks any baseball fan has ever seen. Heading into their game on June 7, they were 35-25 and in second place, two games behind the surprising Colorado Rockies.

Then they went 56-11, which included a stretch in which they went 29-4. By August 25, they were 91-36 and had a 21-game lead in the NL West. Their .717 winning percentage inspired talk of them challenging the all-time regular season wins record of 116 held by the 1906 Chicago Cubs and the 2001 Seattle Mariners.

That didn’t happen, of course. The immediately lost 16 of 17 games and went 13-22 over their last 35 games.

They still finished 11 games ahead of the Diamondbacks in the NL West and made the playoffs for the fifth year in a row, but didn’t come close to the regular season record for wins, not that there’s anything wrong with that.

The playoffs began with a quick three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks. The NLCS was only slightly more challenging, as the Dodgers dispatched the Cubs in five games. That set up a World Series against the 101-win Houston Astros, making this the first time since 1970 that two 100-win teams faced each other in the Fall Classic.

The World Series was epic. The Dodgers took the first game behind nine well-pitched innings from Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Morrow, and Kenley Jansen. The Astros won the second game in an 11-inning contest that saw the teams combine to use 14 pitchers.

The Astros took a series lead in Game 3 when Brad Peacock pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings in relief to get the save. The Dodgers evened things up by getting to the Astros’ bullpen in the late innings of Game 4.

Game 5 will be one of those “best World Series games ever” they’ll show on TV for years to come. The Dodgers had a 4-0 lead and a 7-4 lead with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but he couldn’t get through five innings. Each team landed blow after blow like heavyweight boxers in a pay-per-view extravaganza. When the dust settled, the Astros had a 13-12 victory in 10 innings.

The Dodgers weren’t done, though. They came back with a 3-1 victory in Game 6 and a chance to win their first World Series since the 1988 Kirk Gibson victory over the Oakland Dennis Eckersleys.

Unfortunately, after such a great series, Game 7 was a dud. Yu Darvish was knocked around for five runs (4 earned) in the first two innings and the Dodgers’ bats couldn’t get the big hit when it was needed. The Astros won their first World Series ever.

Despite the World Series loss, the Dodgers had a very good season. They also look to be contenders for years to come. Here is a look at what went right, what went wrong, and the team’s top offseason priorities.

LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 01: Justin Turner /

What Went Right

The Dodgers had five players get some consideration in NL MVP voting but their highest finisher was Justin Turner, at eighth. Statistically, Corey Seager was as deserving as Turner but finished 17^th out of the 22 players who got at least one point in the voting. It’s surprising a 104-win team didn’t have its players finish higher on the voters’ ballots.

Corey Seager and Justin Turner led Dodgers position players in Wins Above Replacement. Turner did it with a terrific bat, hitting .322/.415/.530 with 21 home runs. He was one of just five players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title to strike out less often than he walked. The other four were Joey Votto, Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Anthony Rizzo. That’s impressive company.

Seager wasn’t quite as good this year as he was last year, but he was still very good. He led all NL shortstops in WAR despite missing some time down the stretch with an elbow injury. He also dealt with back and ankle issues in the postseason.

There was talk that he would need surgery in the offseason, but it appears they are going with the rest and rehab approach. He’s a vital member of this team, so the Dodgers will want him to come back fully healthy next spring.

Cody Bellinger didn’t join the Dodgers until April 25, but still set the NL rookie record for home runs, with 39.

He also scored 87 runs, drove in 97, and stole 10 bases. It was one of the 10 best seasons ever for a Dodgers rookie and earned Bellinger the NL Rookie of the Year Award in a unanimous vote. He’s the 18^th Los Angeles Dodgers rookie to take home that trophy, which is more than twice as many as any other team has.

Probably the most surprising player on the Los Angeles Dodgers this year was Chris Taylor. He was acquired in a nondescript trade with the Mariners in June of 2016 (for starting pitcher Zach Lee, who the Mariners ended up putting on waivers).

During three major league seasons before this year, Taylor hit .234/.289/.309 in 318 plate appearances. He changed his approach this year and had a terrific season, hitting .288/.354/.496, with 85 runs, 21 homers, 72 RBI, and 17 steals. He also started ten or more games at shortstop, second base, left field, and center field.

Yasiel Puig had his best year since 2014. He didn’t get back to the level he played at in his first two big league seasons, but he was still better than he’d been the last two years. He set career highs in home runs (28) and steals (15).

He also put more effort into his defense than he ever had before and graded out as the best right fielder in the NL according to UZR. He was a finalist for a Rawlings Gold Glove Award but ultimately lost to Jason Heyward, who won it for the fourth consecutive year.

The Dodgers’ catching tandem of Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes combined to be worth 4.8 WAR, which was third in baseball. Only the Cubs (mainly Willson Contreras) and Braves (Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki) were better. Grandal hit 22 home runs and was one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. Barnes had an impressive .408 on-base percentage and .486 slugging percentage.

On the pitching side, Clayton Kershaw missed out on winning his fourth NL Cy Young Award by finishing second to Max Scherzer, but he had another Kershaw-esque season. He was 18-4 with a 2.31 ERA in 175 innings and his win total and ERA led the league. His breaking ball is a thing of beauty.

Fellow lefties Alex Wood and Rich Hill weren’t exactly workhorses, but they were effective when they got on the mound. Wood was 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA in 152.3 innings. Hill was 12-8 with a 3.32 ERA in 135.7 innings. Kershaw, Wood, Hill, and the team’s other starting pitchers combined for a 3.39 ERA, best in baseball.

The bullpen was also very good, finishing fourth in baseball ERA and third in Fangraphs WAR. Kenley Jansen was the best in the business at closing. He had the lowest ERA of any reliever with 50 or more innings and the second-most saves. Only Craig Kimbrel had a higher strikeout rate.

Setting up for Jansen was Brandon Morrow, who had a 2.06 ERA and 1.55 FIP in 43.7 innings. Morrow has struggled with injuries for years. He was a starter for a few seasons with the Blue Jays, but has pitched solely in relief the last two seasons and has a 1.96 ERA in 59.7 innings during that stretch.

PHOENIX, AZ – APRIL 21: Adrian Gonzalez /

What Went Wrong

The Dodgers spent over $100 million on players who either didn’t play for them or didn’t contribute much at all (see next slide for more on that). Carl Crawford made $21 million and Scott Kazmir made $17 million and neither played an inning. Crawford’s contract is done, but Kazmir is owed another $17 million in 2018.

One of the costly players who played but didn’t provide much value was first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who made more than $22 million and hit .242/.287/.355 in 252 plate appearances. He spent 13 days on the DL with elbow soreness in May and another 67 days on the DL with back discomfort in June, July, and August. He’s under contract for one more expensive year.

Andre Ethier was a slightly less expensive version of Adrian Gonzalez who played even less than Gonzalez. He made $17.5 million for 38 plate appearances. Over the last two seasons, he’s made $35.5 million for 64 plate appearances.

Back problems have been a constant problem for Ethier. In early November, the Los Angeles Dodgers paid him $2.5 million to buy out his 2018 option and making him a free agent and ending his long tenure with the team. Ethier’s rookie year with the Dodger was 2006, back when he was a teammate of 39-year-old Kenny Lofton, who’s been retired for a decade.

After seemingly establishing himself for good in the big leagues, outfielder Joc Pederson had two DL stints and spent some time back in Triple-A this season. He had been a 3-4 WAR player in the previous two seasons but struggled to stay above replacement-level this year.

Young starting pitcher Julio Urias was a Baseball America top 10 prospect before the 2015 and 2016 seasons. He started 15 games for the Dodgers as a 19-year-old in 2016 and was 5-2 with a 3.39 ERA.

This season, he split time between the big leagues and Triple-A before shoulder discomfort sidelined him in June. He had surgery later that month on his left anterior shoulder capsule. It was recently reported that he could return as early as May next season.

In February, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed longtime San Francisco Giants relief pitcher Sergio Romo. They should have known better than to tempt fate by signing a Giants player. Romo was terrible in Dodgers blue. He had a 6.12 ERA in 25 innings and was traded to Tampa Bay in July. Away from L.A., Romo had a 1.47 ERA in 30.7 innings with the Rays.

Romo wasn’t the only reliever who struggled for the Dodgers. Chris Hatcher pitched 36.7 innings and had a 4.66 ERA. Grant Dayton hurled 23.2 innings, with a 4.94 ERA. Highly regarded pitching prospect Walker Buehler pitched 9.3 innings and had a 7.71 ERA (small sample size alert!).

HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 28: Corey Seager /

Top Offseason Priorities

According to CBS Sports, the Los Angeles Dodgers had the highest payroll in baseball, at $242 million. Close to $50 million of that was dead money being paid to players either on other teams or retired. For example, retired outfielder Carl Crawford was paid more than $20 million.

They also paid Adrian Gonzalez, Andre Ethier, and Scott Kazmir a combined $57 million. Kazmir didn’t pitch in the big leagues at all this year, Gonzalez was worse than replacement-level, and Ethier had just 38 plate appearances. Simply put, the team spent more than $100 million on players who did essentially nothing for them.

To counteract those expensive but no-value contracts, the Dodgers got great production from pre-arbitration players like Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and Chris Taylor. Also, not all of the Dodgers’ expensive contracts were busts. Clayton Kershaw was his typical excellent self.

This is how the lineup and rotation look for 2018 based on their current roster, with salaries from Cot’s Baseball Contracts at Baseball Prospectus and arbitration projections from MLB Trade Rumors:

C Yasmani Grandal, arbitration-eligible (projected: $7.7 million)
C Austin Barnes, pre-arbitration
1B Adrian Gonzalez, $21.5 million
2B Logan Forsythe, $8.5 million club option
SS Corey Seager, pre-arbitration
3B Justin Turner, $11 million
LF Cody Bellinger, pre-arbitration
CF Chris Taylor, pre-arbitration
RF Yasiel Puig $7.5 million
OF Joc Pederson, arbitration-eligible (projected: $2.0 million)
UT Kike Hernandez, arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.3 million)
SP Clayton Kershaw, $33 million
SP Rich Hill, $16 million
SP Alex Wood, arbitration-eligible (projected: $6.4 million)
SP Kenta Maeda, $3 million
SP Hyun-Jin Ryu, $7 million
SP Brandon McCarthy, $11.5 million
RP Kenley Jansen, $10 million
RP Pedro Baez, arbitration-eligible (projected: $1.5 million)
RP Josh Fields, arbitration-eligible (projected: $2.2 million)
RP Tony Cingrani, arbitration-eligible (projected: $2.2 million)
RP Luis Avilan, arbitration-eligible (projected $2.3 million)

Free agents: SP Yu Darvish, RP Brandon Morrow, RP Tony Watson, OF Andre Ethier, OF Curtis Granderson, OF Franklin Gutierrez, 2B Chase Utley

The Los Angeles Dodgers biggest area of need is starting pitching. They have five or six starting pitchers who can pitch effectively, but they all have a history of injury problems and this includes Clayton Kershaw, who has pitched 149 and 175 innings the last two years. Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, and friends have not been durable starting pitchers. They’ve been good starting pitchers, but not durable.

With that in mind, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be looking for a top-tier starting pitcher, someone who is durable and preferably right-handed. The two big-ticket items are Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Darvish is a year younger and pitched well during the regular season with the Dodgers after they acquired him in a July trade. He had a 3.44 ERA and 3.38 FIP in 49.7 innings.

Of course, as every Los Angeles Dodgers fan knows Darvish got lit up in the World Series. It was only two starts and no one should be judged on just two starts, but it wouldn’t be surprising for Dodger fans to cringe at the thought of the team re-signing him after his Game 7 performance. It’s been suggested that he was tipping his pitches.

LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 01: Joc Pederson /

Viable Free Agent options

If so, it should be an easy fix. Darvish is projected to have a 3.81 ERA in 179 innings (Fangraphs Depth Charts), which is much better than Arrieta (4.20 ERA in 177 innings).

There are cheaper free agent options as well, including Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, among many others. If the free agent starters don’t excite them, the Dodgers have a good farm system and could look to trade for a starting pitcher. At Forbes.com, Howard Cole writes about Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer being a nice fit for the team.

Cole also mentioned the highly-coveted Japanese two-way player Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers have a good history with Japanese players that goes back to Hideo Nomo in the mid-1990s. It wouldn’t be a surprise for them to be interested in Ohtani, although being a National League team could make it less likely if Ohtani insists on being a two-way player.

The offense is set at most positions, but Adrian Gonzalez and his big contract have to be dealt with. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman expects Gonzalez to be healthy by spring training. Whether he can still be productive or not is the issue.

If he is given a chance to start at first then Bellinger moves to left field and Joc Pederson is squeezed out of some playing time. Pederson has a career batting line of .184/.278/.321 against lefties, so he might be relegated to a platoon role anyway.

It has been rumored that the Los Angeles Dodgers could be in the mix for the Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton. The Cardinals and Giants have reportedly made offers already and the Red Sox are expected to also. Stanton is still owed $295 million over the next ten years, with an opt-out after the 2020 season. There aren’t many teams who could take on that contract, but the Dodgers are one of them.

The Dodgers are indeed in the mix for Giancarlo Stanton, according to a source.
— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 14, 2017

If Corey Seager’s elbow problem is serious, the team will need a shortstop. Chris Taylor has experience there, but may not be an option for an extended time at the position. He’s been shifted away from shortstop the last two years. He’s also a nice guy to have in a utility role because he can move around from short to second to third to left or center field.

Next: Top 25 Pitcher free agents for 2017-18

Whatever moves the Los Angeles Dodgers make will be to get them over the hump to win a World Series. They’re currently a playoff team, with the roster they have now. They just need to add a few pieces to win that one extra game.

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