Washington Nationals: How did the 2017 pitching trio rank among all-time pitching staffs?
The Washington Nationals rotation had an impressive showing in 2017, but how does the rotation rank among all-time rotations?
When the Cy Young awards were announced, three of the top six vote-getters were Washington Nationals. In pursuing how unique that was, just how good the 2017 Nationals rotation truly comes into focus.
2017 Nationals numbers
The front three of the Nationals rotation was the highlight of the 2017 rotation, with ace Max Scherzer having very feasibly his best season, even though he only had 16 wins. Scherzer made 31 starts, throwing 200 2/3 innings, with a 2.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 55/268 BB/K ratio. He had his best ERA+ and strikeout rate of his career.
Behind him in the rotation were Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez. Strasburg made 28 starts, throwing 175 1/3 innings, with a 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a 47/204 BB/K ratio. Gonzalez made 32 starts, leading the team with 201 innings, posting a 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 79/188 BB/K ratio.
Tanner Roark led a bit of a rag-tag bunch that filled out the rest of the staff with very mixed results. Joe Ross, Edwin Jackson, A.J. Cole, Erick Fedde, Jacob Turner, Jeremy Guthrie, and Matt Grace each made starts on the season.
Overall, the Nationals starters threw 973 innings, allowing a 3.63 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and posting a 333/1,012 BB/K ratio for a 9.4 K/9 and 3.07 K/BB.
The top 3 starters combined for 91 starts, 577 innings, 2.67 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a 181/660 BB/K ratio with Scherzer winning the Cy Young Award, while the trio combined for 300 points of voting. The top three also had 20.4 combined bWAR, finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in bWAR among pitchers.
The question is just how good the Nationals starters were against historically good rotations. These were subjectively good rotations, and there are likely some other great rotations that are going to not be included, but specifically the focus was on rotations with high WAR totals and a strong 3-man top end of the staff like the Washington Nationals possessed.
Next: Recent Gold Standard
2011 Philadelphia Phillies
The absolute gold standard of a pitching rotation in the last 50 years sadly just lost its ace when Roy Halladay tragically passed away. The 2011 Philadelphia Phillies were attempting to get back to the World Series after winning in 2008 and losing in a repeat appearance in 2009. Those teams didn’t have the rotation that 2011’s squad did, however.
The front three in the 2011 Phillies rotation is clear, but they went deeper than three with excellence, and that’s what set that team apart from many other rotations that could compare in the last half-century.
The front of the rotation had Halladay at the top of his game along with lefties Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. However, in 2010, the Phillies had acquired former Astros workhorse Roy Oswalt. Oswalt missed time due to injury issues in 2011, but when he was on the field, he was excellent, though it’d be his last productive year of his career. Oswalt made 23 starts, throwing 139 innings with a 3.69 ERA.
In the fifth spot in the rotation, the Phillies opened the season with veteran Joe Blanton holding down the spot. However, when he struggled, young righty Vance Worley took over the spot and had an excellent season in the 5th starter role, going 11-3 over 25 games, 21 starts, throwing 131 2/3 innings, allowing a 3.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and a 46/119 BB/K ratio.
Halladay led the “big three” of the rotation, making 32 starts, throwing 233 2/3 innings, with a 19-6 record, a 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 35/220 BB/K ratio. He finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting.
After acquiring Lee for their stretch run in 2009, the Phillies signed Lee after he split his 2010 between Seattle and Texas. He enjoyed his first season in Philadelphia, making 32 starts, throwing 232 2/3 innings, allowing a 2.40 ERA with a 17-8 record. Lee led the league with 6 shutouts, and he had a 1.03 WHIP and a 42/238 BB/K ratio. He finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting.
After a tough 2009, Hamels bounced back in 2010 and was at an elite level in 2011, going 14-9 over 216 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and a 44/194 BB/K ratio. He finished 5th in the CY voting, making the Phillies the only team to have 3 finishers in the top 6 other than the Nationals in the last 50 years.
The Phillies starting rotation on the season threw 1,064 2/3 innings with a 2.86 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, and 4.22 BB/K. The front three in the rotation, Halladay, Hamels, and Lee, threw 682 1/3 innings, with a 2.51 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, and 5.39 K/BB. The trio combined for 24.1 bWAR on the season, almost a half-win more than the next closest trio found in researching this article.
Next: Underappreciated Dominance
2005 Houston Astros
One of the pitching staffs that has truly flown under the radar when considering all-time great pitching staffs is the Astros staff of 2005 that was swept by the White Sox in the World Series that season.
The pitching staff had a clear front three in Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, and Roger Clemens, though Brandon Backe made two incredible starts out of his three playoff starts in the 2005 season. In those two starts (one in the NLCS and one in the World Series), Backe went 12 2/3 total innings, allowing just 1 run, striking out 14 hitters on the biggest stage of his young career.
Roger Clemens may have been 42 years old, but his 2005 season was one of his absolute best of his career, as he went 13-8 over 32 starts, throwing 211 1/3 innings, with a 1.87 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 62/185 BB/K ratio.
He threw the least of the three at the top of the rotation however, as Roy Oswalt took the lead in the workhorse category for the Astros that season, making 35 starts, going 20-12 with 4 complete games over 241 2/3 innings, with a 2.94 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 48/184 BB/K ratio.
Clemens convinced his friend and former teammate Andy Pettitte to join him in Houston, and in 2005, Pettitte had one of his best seasons of his career for the Astros. He made 33 starts, throwing 222 1/3 innings, with a 17-9 record, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 41/171 BB/K ratio.
The Astros starting staff in 2005 threw 1,029 innings, putting up a 3.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, and a 2.63 K/BB. Those first three in the rotation threw 675 1/3 of those innings, with a 2.43 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, and 3.58 K/9 ratio. Clemens, Oswalt, and Pettitte combined for 20.5 bWAR on the season.
Next: Recent legendary duo
2002 Arizona Diamondbacks
Whenever there’s a question of the best starting duo in recent history, there’s really no question. The ultimate standard is the era with the Arizona Diamondbacks where Randy Johnson took the hill on one day and Curt Schilling followed him to the mound the next day. While that combination worked to the tune of a World Series title in 2001, they really did so by carrying the entire rotation on their shoulders.
In 2002, while Johnson and Schilling were the only two Diamondbacks that eclipsed 200 innings, 5 starters threw more than 150 innings, and Miguel Batista took the step from a swingman in the 2001 bullpen to an integral part of the 2002 staff.
Johnson was the leader of the staff, going 24-5 over 35 starts, completing 8 games, with 4 shutouts, throwing 260 innings, allowing a 2.32 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a 71/334 BB/K ratio, winning a Cy Young.
Showing how “old school” stats still reigned supreme in 2002, Curt Schilling went 23-7 over 259 1/3 innings with a lower FIP and WHIP than Johnson, and a nearly equal strikeout rate, but after struggling with BABIP issues, he ended up with a 3.23 ERA to go along with his 0.97 WHIP and 33/316 BB/K ratio.
Batista spent some time in the bullpen still in 2002, making 36 appearances, 29 of them starts, throwing 184 2/3 innings, allowing a 4.29 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, posting a 70/112 BB/K ratio. While the other members of the rotation (including Johnson and Schilling) all allowed at least 20 home runs, Batista’s excellent sinker allowed him to limit opponents to 12 on the season in spite of an offense-heavy home ballpark.
Overall the Diamondbacks’ 2002 rotation threw 1,059 1/3 innings, with a 3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and a 3.88 K/BB ratio. The front trio threw 704 of those innings, with a 3.17 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, and 4.38 K/BB ratio. Johnson, Schilling, and Batista combined for 23.7 bWAR on the season.
Next: Dynasty of pitching
1996 Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves built a dynasty in the 1990s on the strength of their pitching staffs. Starting with the 1991 team that went from last place to first place, the Braves lived on the strength of their pitching staffs, and picking out which one was the best was a challenge.
Figuring out the top 3 in that rotation was no challenge, however. Once he joined the team for the 1993 team, Greg Maddux joined with Tom Glavine and John Smoltz to create one of the strongest top 3 in a rotation ever, and especially one that stayed together for quite some time.
After winning what would end up the only World Series title of their impressive 15-year run, the Braves sent out their impressive trio, having seen Maddux lead the rotation for the previous three seasons, leading the majors in ERA each of the three seasons, with a COMBINED 1.90 ERA over 1993-1995 over 678 2/3 innings with an incredible 0.93 WHIP, walking just 4% of the hitters he faced.
In 1996, the guy who hadn’t yet won a Cy Young Award stepped forward as the rotation leader as John Smoltz made 35 starts, going 24-8 with 253 2/3 innings thrown, posting a 2.94 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 55/276 BB/K ratio. He won the National League’s Cy Young that season.
Maddux and Glavine were no slouches on the season, however. Maddux went 15-11 over 35 starts, throwing 245 innings, posting a 2.72 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 28/172 BB/K ratio. Incredibly, of the 28 walks he allowed, 11 were intentional. Glavine also won 15 games, going 15-10 over 36 starts and 235 1/3 innings, with a 2.98 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and an 85/181 BB/K ratio.
In the 1996 season, the Braves made the trade that would eventually give them one of the best fourth starters in the league in Denny Neagle, when they traded away a young arm by the name of Jason Schmidt to bring in the veteran lefty.
Overall, the Braves starting staff threw 1,026 2/3 innings in 1996, with a 3.45 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, a 7.5 K/9, and a 2.91 K/BB ratio. The top three threw the most innings of any modern staff on this list, tossing 734 innings, with a 2.88 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, and 3.74 K/BB. Combined, Smoltz, Maddux, and Glavine totaled 20.2 bWAR on the 1996 season.
Next: Big Apple Rotation
1985 New York Mets
The Mets were truly building a dynasty in the mid-1980s with their combination of big-time stars Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry to be the media faces of a veteran lineup and a young pitching staff. While the 1986 team replaced Ed Lynch in the rotation with Bob Ojeda, and saw Ojeda become a vital piece of the rotation, in 1985, the top 3 starters performed better, so they’re listed here.
The first four in the rotation repeated from 1985 to 1986 with Gooden, Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez, and Rick Aguilera. Aguilera was clearly the 5th starter, and he would eventually transition to the bullpen after he was traded in the late 1980s and become a very good closer for the Minnesota Twins along with a couple other teams.
The ace of that front three was Gooden, and in 1985, he had one of the most incredible seasons in the last 40 years. While he didn’t strike out as many as his impressive rookie season, he posted a 24-4 record over 35 starts, completing 16 of them with 8 shutouts, throwing 276 2/3 innings, with a 1.53 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 69/268 BB/K ratio.
Ron Darling was the second man in the rotation, throwing 248 innings, allowing a 2.90 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 114/167 BB/K ratio. Fernandez didn’t some up from AAA until early May, but he finished with 26 starts, 170 1/3 innings, a 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and a 80/180 BB/K ratio.
Overall the Mets staff threw 1,091 2/3 innings, posting a 2.84 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, a 6.6 K/9, and a 2.2 K/BB. The front three of the rotation combined for 695 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8 K/9, and a 2.34 BB/K ratio. The three posted a combined 20.1 bWAR as well.
Next: Amazins' Staff
1973 New York Mets
On August 30th of 1973, the New York Mets lost a 1-0 game to St. Louis in 10 innings, falling to 61-71, last place in the National League East division. From that point, the Mets went 20-8 to jump over every other team in the division and then defeated the “Big Red Machine” version of the Cincinnati Reds to get to the 1973 World Series. They did fall to the Oakland Athletics, but it wasn’t until 7 games.
Many would initially remember that team as the final season of all-time great Willie Mays, when he looked slow and, frankly, old, hitting .211/.303/.344 in 239 plate appearances. Instead, what carried that team was an elite pitching staff.
The team’s best power hitter could only muster a .432 slugging percentage. The team’s top stolen base threat only had 6 steals on the season. However, 6 pitchers tossed at least 100 innings, and the front three were incredibly impressive.
Overall, the 1973 starters threw 1,118 1/3 innings with a 3.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, and a 2.3 K/BB.
Tom Seaver was certainly the star of the rotation, already in the midst of an elite career, going 19-10 over 36 starts, throwing 290 innings, with a 2.08 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 64/251 BB/K ratio.
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After a couple of seasons where he struggled to remain healthy through the entire season, Jerry Koosman returned to form in 1973, making 35 starts for the first time in his career, throwing 263 innings, with a 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 76/156 BB/K ratio.
The third member was a truly sad story in the early 1970s in pitching. Jon Matlack came up to the Mets in 1971 at 21 years old. By the end 1976, when he was 26, Matlack had already tallied 3 All-Star appearances, 75 wins, 1,279 innings, a 2.88 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 376/900 BB/K ratio. In 1973, he had a good, albeit not great season (his best year would be in 1974), when he went 14-16 over 34 starts and 242 innings, with a 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a 99/205 BB/K ratio.
Overall the top 3 in the Mets rotation that season combined for 795 innings, a 2.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, and a 2.56 K/BB. The trio amassed 20.7 combined bWAR.
So how do you think the Nationals rotation ranks among these? Will be the rotation be even better in 2018 or will they step back?