Hall of Fame ballot: Fourteen holdovers

The 2018 Hall of Fame ballot has been released and there are 14 holdovers from last year’s ballot hoping to make the cut this time.

There are plenty of big names returning to the Hall of Fame ballot, including two players who were on the cusp of induction last year. The holdovers on the ballot consists of three very good starting pitchers, two strong relievers, six outfielders, and one player each at first base, second base, and third base. If you like to track the ballots made public you can follow along on Twitter, where Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) posts regular updates.

Pitchers

Roger Clemens is the headliner among starting pitchers. His on field production puts him among the greatest pitchers who ever pitched, but his association with PEDs has kept him out of the Hall of Fame in his first five opportunities on the ballot. He had his best vote total last year when he reached 54.1 percent. Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling won 270 and 216 games, respectively, and picked up 51.8 percent and 45 percent of the vote last year.

Relievers Trevor Hoffman (74 percent last year) and Billy Wagner (10.2 percent last year) are almost identical in value based on advanced metrics like Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and JAWS, which is Jay Jaffe’s scoring system that measures a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness. Wagner had a lower ERA and WHIP and a better strikeout rate, but Hoffman had more saves. Those saves are what will put him in the Hall of Fame, very likely this year.

Infielders

On the position player side, the three holdovers in the infield are first baseman Fred McGriff (21.7 percent last year), second baseman Jeff Kent (16.7 percent), and third baseman/DH Edgar Martinez (58.6 percent). McGriff and Kent haven’t fared well in the voting so far, but they have their supporters. One of Kent’s biggest fans is Chris “Mad Dog” Russo on MLB Network, but The Dog doesn’t think Martinez reaches the Hall of Fame level.

Martinez has plenty of supporters in the sabermetrics crowd and his voting total since 2015 has jumped from 27 percent to 43.4 percent to 58.6 percent last year. He has two years remaining on the ballot, so he’ll need to continue to make progress to get there. The Mariners retired his number last summer and are strongly pushing his candidacy through social media.

Outfielders

The biggest name among returning outfielders is Barry Bonds (53.8 percent last year), the Roger Clemens of position players. Bonds and Clemens have matched vote totals very closely in the five years they’ve been on the ballot together. They seem to be a package deal because both have tremendous numbers but PED issues that have suppressed their vote totals.

Garnet and Cocky

The final five holdovers are all right fielders. Vladimir Guerrero (71.7 percent) almost made it in his first year of eligibility last year and should get in this year. Statistically, according to WAR and JAWS, he slots in below Manny Ramirez (23.8 percent) and Larry Walker (21.9 percent), but the voters favor him. Ramirez has two PED suspensions on his resume and Walker is likely getting dinged for playing many of his home games at Coors Field and not being very durable during his career.

The last two right fielders still on the ballot are Gary Sheffield (13.3 percent) and Sammy Sosa (8.6 percent). Both have more than 500 career home runs and more than 1600 career RBI. They also have non-stats related characteristics that have kept their support low among the BBWAA.

For some voters this is a stacked ballot. They can easily find ten names to vote for and likely even more. Other voters will choose just a few. Last December, BBWAA membership voted in favor of publishing every ballot, like they do with the end-of-season awards (Cy Young, MVP, etc.), but the Hall of Fame’s board of directors rejected the proposal.

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Voters must get their ballots in by December 31, so that leaves five weeks of spirited debate over who should get the ultimate honor and who should not. The 2018 Hall of Fame class will be announced on MLB Network on January 24 next year and induction day will be July 29.