The Atlanta Braves are finally able to focus on offseason moves. How could their offseason look in a way that sets up the team for 2018 competition and leaves the future in good shape as well?
After a 90-loss season and the wait for the punishment to come down from the league that was laid down on Tuesday, Atlanta Braves fans can now finally start focusing on the offseason. What could the Atlanta Braves do this offseason to be a competitive team in 2018 while not hurting their team depth going forward?
First, we should look at the real impact of those punishments on the future of the Braves:
Atlanta Braves future sanctions
The focus on the sanctions levied upon the Atlanta Braves has been on the players lost by the team. While the twelve current players and two future players were all losses to the organization, the real loss was the future sanctions in the international market.
In 2017-2018, the Braves were already restricted to a maximum of $300K for a signing. They will carry that restriction into the 2018/2019 period as well. MLB added on two more years of restrictions – full amount of signing pool in 2019/2020 with a maximum signing of $10,000 and a similar maximum while reducing the signing pool for 2020/2021 by 50%.
Those seem like very tough penalties, and they certainly are, but right now, with names like Julio Martinez and Shohei Ohtani as well as the newly released prospects from their organization, the Atlanta Braves are positioned to take advantage of this by trading their bonus pool in exchange for other teams’ prospects. Willingness to take lower-level prospects would get them higher-talent prospects than many recent deals, where prospects near the majors were moved in exchange for funds.
So going forward, the Braves are going to be dinged for sure, but realize how far ahead of the game their farm system was – after losing 12 prospects that will mostly figure in their new teams’ top 30 prospect lists, MLB.com’s Jim Callis had this to say:
When I ranked baseball's top farm systems for @MLBNetwork for use during our last two @MLBazFallLeague broadcasts, I had the @Braves at No. 1. With Atlanta losing Kevin Maitan & Co., I would drop them to No. 2 behind the @whitesox.
So the system is still incredibly elite for the future; how does Atlanta address the “now”? That’s what we’ll take a stab at with the rest of this article…
Next: Current salary and free agents
ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 21: Centerfielder Ender Inciarte /
Currently under contract
If you’re not familiar with Roster Resource, they are a tremendous source over the offseason for roster movement. The Atlanta Braves page currently shows 40 players assigned to the 40-man roster.
Catchers – Tyler Flowers, Kurt Suzuki Infielders – Matt Adams, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Freddie Freeman, Adonis Garcia, Jace Peterson, Rio Ruiz, Dansby Swanson Outfielders – Lane Adams, Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Danny Santana Starting Pitchers – Aaron Blair, Mike Foltynewicz, Max Fried, Luiz Gohara, Sean Newcomb, Ricardo Sanchez, Lucas Sims, Julio Teheran, Matt Wisler Relief Pitchers – Jesse Biddle, Rex Brothers, Mauricio Cabrera, Grant Dayton, Sam Freeman, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, Jim Johnson, Jacob Lindgren, Adam McCreery, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, Jose Ramirez, Josh Ravin, Arodys Vizcaino, Dan Winkler
Out of options on 40-man – Lane Adams, Mauricio Cabrera, Sam Freeman, Luke Jackson, Jace Peterson, Jose Ramirez, Josh Ravin, Danny Santana
Total committed contracts: $76,725,667 Arbitration eligible projected salaries: $15,500,000 Pre-Arbitration players: $5,400,000 Projected Total (via Cots Contracts): $97,625,667
Current free agents from the 2017 roster: R.A. Dickey, Ian Krol, Eric O’Flaherty, Jason Motte
Next: Free Agents to sign
First things first
You will notice as I did that the the Atlanta Braves currently have 40 players on their 40-man roster. That is to keep them safe from the Rule 5 draft of course, but many of these players are easily replaceable, at least in my opinion. So, before we can start overhauling the roster for this season and the future, we need to cull the fat from the roster.
The Atlanta Braves need help in the bullpen primarily this offseason. With some room to work financially, the Braves could spend, or they could use their funds to eat some salary to open their roster for young players. We’re going to see a couple of signings as part of the offseason.
Cishek isn’t the guy who many people would see as the top choice in a market with Wade Davis, Greg Holland, and Addison Reed at the top of the reliever pile, but he might be the best option for the Braves.
The Braves are certainly familiar with Cishek, having seen him save nearly 100 games for the Marlins. Cishek doesn’t come with an upper-90s heater, but he works with a sinker with incredible movement that he pairs with a sweeping slider with similar excellent movement to get plenty of swing and miss.
While he may not end up in the closer role, he would certainly be a guy to work in the late innings alongside Aroldys Vizcaino. He’s projected to make $14 million over 2 years, and a contract in the $7-8 million per season range for 2-3 years would be certainly workable for Cishek.
While the Braves had an elite velocity pitcher at the back of the bullpen in Vizcaino, one of the big issues that the team ran into in 2017 was getting the ball into Vizcaino’s hands from the starters. With young starters likely to dominate the rotation in 2018, this will be even more important in 2018.
With that, a reliable veteran arm is something of supreme importance. Smith fits that bill perfectly. Smith made his debut with the Mets in 2007, and since then, he’s thrown with 5 organizations, and he’s thrown 50 games every season except 2009.
Smith works from a sidearm position, which makes him very tough on righties, but he does well against hitters from both sides. He operates with a fastball in the upper 80s and a frisbee slider around 80 that keeps hitters from squaring him up. While Smith has been bouncing around a bit the last few seasons, he’s a guy that could give some veteran stability to the middle innings for the Braves.
While 34, Smith’s stability and consistency should allow him to ask for multiple years on the market. Quite likely going after him with 2 years in the $10-13 million range would convince Smith to be a Brave.
Next: Trades to pursue
Atlanta Braves /
Trading post
The Braves really do have some redundancy on their current roster. Some of that will be taken care of through DFA, and some of that should happen through trade. In a few cases, if guys can’t be traded, the Braves should use the payroll flexibility they have for the 2018 season to buy out guys like Jim Johnson and Matt Kemp with expensive contracts for 2018.
Trade #1: Jim Johnson and Aaron Blair to the Angels for LHP Jose Suarez. The Braves want to clear Johnson’s salary and Blair really is a guy that they’d like to move beyond to see more of the upper-level minor league arms. Suarez is a Venezuelan signee from 2014 who doesn’t turn 20 until January, but he has an elite feel for pitching with an excellent change and premium control. He’s a guy who could really jump up with good tutelage. He may not seem like a huge return for two pitchers, but eating Johnson’s salary does lower the return somewhat.
Trade #2: Matt Kemp, all but $16M of his salary, and $1M of international dollars to the Minnesota Twins for Nick Burdi. The Twins left Burdi unprotected from the Rule 5 draft due to recovering from Tommy John surgery that will keep him out a lot of the 2018 season. If he could return to his triple-digit fastball ways coming back from surgery, the Braves would have an elite velocity arm in the bullpen. The Twins are looking to get a leg up to either sign Shohei Ohtani or even pursue some of the Braves own former prospects and would covet the international funds. More than anything, moving Kemp opens a spot in the lineup for elite prospect Ronald Acuna.
Trade #3:Matt Adams and Matt Wisler to the Royals for Brandon Maurer. Wisler is a guy who still could show well as a starter, but he’s just run into something with the Braves that doesn’t work with him. Adams offers the Royals a cushion for the loss of Eric Hosmer. Maurer has an elite fastball that he pairs with an impressive slider and change. He’s always had elite talent but never put it together, which he would have a chance to do for a season with the Braves before he’d likely either be non-tendered or just released after 2018.
Trade #4:Lucas Sims to the Astros for Colin Moran. Essentially a swap of guys who have reached the majors with their clubs without a spot to play. Moran’s a solid 3B that would allow the Braves to work with Camargo, Ruiz, and Moran to cover third base as they wait for Austin Riley to take over the position. Sims has seemingly become an additional arm among the Braves top arms, and he could be expendable in a deal like this. The Braves could also instead choose to pursue J.D. Davis, basically in the same situation with perhaps more power.
Next: Rule 5
Rule 5 options
So in the trades we’ve made, players we’ve released, and players we’ve signed, the roster has gone from 40 to 35 (assuming they protect Nick Burdi after acquiring him from Minnesota). The Atlanta Braves would likely then want to add Dustin Peterson and/or Travis Demeritte to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, perhaps also adding reliever Jacob Webb and his incredible strikeout rate to the 40-man.
Even if they add all three players, that still leaves 2 roster spots open as the Braves enter the rule 5, so who could they target that other teams have left unprotected?
Luke Bard, RHP – Luke is the brother of Daniel Bard and a former Georgia Tech arm that was taken in the 1st round by the Twins in 2012. After surgeries along the way, Bard has developed into a dominant right handed bullpen arm, with a 2.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 24/99 BB/K ratio over 65 1/3 bullpen innings between AA and AAA in 2017.
Shane Broyles, RHP – Broyles has been a slow developer for the Rockies, but he broke through in 2017, with a 1.81 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 16/78 BB/K over 54 2/3 innings mostly spent in AA, with 21 saves.
Raynel Espinal, RHP – Espinal could be the most-desired player in the Rule 5 this year after making the move to a long-relief role in his first full season back after surgery after attempting to start in 2016. He was nothing short of dominant in the Yankees system, throwing 74 1/3 innings with a 1.09 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and a 15/93 BB/K across 3 levels, ending in AA Trenton.
Dom Nunez, C – Nunez was just a year ago being considered as a possible spring competition for the starting catching job in Colorado. Now with the team likely to bring back Jonathan Lucroy and having Tom Murphy and Tony Wolters still in hand, Nunez is more able to be moved. He’s got legit power at the plate along with elite defense behind the plate. He does take a walk well, but he’s struggled the last two seasons with consistent contact.
Max Pentecost, C/1B – Even giving the Braves 3 catchers, this would make way too much sense given that Pentecost was a draftee of new Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos when he was in Toronto as the 11th overall pick. After a host of injuries delayed his development and even called his catching into question, Pentecost hit .276/.332/.434 in the notorious pitcher’s league that is the Florida State League. He’d have the chance to develop behind two excellent veterans in Flowers and Suzuki.
Angel Perdomo, LHP – Another former Anthopoulos guy, Perdomo has struggled to control his impressive stuff, but he’s still put up decent results even with poor control numbers. He had a 3.70 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and a 43/65 BB/K ratio over 75 1/3 innings in the Florida State League. I’ve always thought Perdomo could be an elite reliever, and perhaps the Braves could take Perdomo and use him as a swing man/reliever.
Jake Reed, RHP – Reed was a 5th round selection out of Oregon after being a bit of a late bloomer for the Ducks. He has a huge arm but has struggled with health the last few seasons. In 2017, mostly in AAA, he put up a 2.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 17/33 BB/K ratio over 38 relief innings.
Victor Reyes, OF – A former Braves farmhand that was traded away in 2014, Reyes has developed into a guy with an excellent contact tool, above-average speed, and average to above-average power. He hit .292/.332/.399 with 18 steals and 38 extra bases over 516 plate appearances in AA in 2017 then went to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit very well, putting up a .316/.333/.405 line with 3 doubles, 2 triples, and 12 stolen bases over 20 games.
Wes Rogers, OF – Rogers has elite speed, and in old roster construction, he would have been the ideal Rule 5 guy, a guy who could pinch run for a season at the MLB level. He did flash some power last season, however, and that could be a sign of things to come, as he slashed .319/.377/.488 with 9 home runs and 70 steals in high-A.
Jake Stinnett, RHP – Drafted in the 2nd round out of Maryland in 2014, Stinnett has struggled with health, but moved to the bullpen in 2017, where his stuff played up significantly. He worked his way up to AA, putting up a combined line of a 1.19 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8/27 BB/K over 22 2/3 IP.
Personally, I would make the top choice Pentecost with Espinal being the focus with a second selection to use two Rule 5 picks, with Bard the fall-back for the 2nd pick.
So figuring $7.5 million for Cishek and $6M for Smith along with the trades made, here are how the final numbers line up:
Total committed contracts: $77,225,667 Arbitration eligible projected salaries: $12,600,000 Pre-Arbitration players: $6,750,000 Projected Total: $96,575,667, which would give the Atlanta Braves payroll flexibility to take on a big salary along with a prospect as they did in the deal that netted the organization Touki Toussaint while also leaving funds available for next offseason.
