Phillies: GM’s elimination process
While the Phillies quietly continue their groundwork for the Winter Meetings, general manager Matt Klentak will learn on Dec. 14, the powwow’s final day, if he still likes his recent 40-man roster decisions.
Parallel moves:
Many prospects of the Philadelphia Phillies received promotions in the second half of a level or two with the survivors earning roster protection for the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Yet, hiding in plain sight was Klentak’s method to determine the competition for the remaining spots.
IN OTHER WORDS: “I do not believe that there is any secret or single formula for success, but there are common threads of thought and action that characterize the successful people that I have been fortunate enough to know and observe.” – Merlin Olsen
If a writer does a thorough study for an article, there is sometimes the discovery of the unexpected. And it reveals itself near the end of the piece as it develops like a photograph in a darkroom.
When it came to the final 40-man spots, Klentak devised a test for at least seven players. This was the GM’s way of turning over every stone once or twice. However, two came up short.
Besides the elimination approach regarding borderline talent, Klentak also acquired slick fielders in an unrelated backup plan. Initially, he had Jesmuel Valentin with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs as a future utility infielder. But adding two more equaled three roster slots.
At the end of August, the hometown nine received middle infielder Eliezer Alvarez from the St. Louis Cardinals for a veteran reliever. The defender hit .323 in Single-A and .247 in Double-A. Like Valentine, he’ll compete for a reserve spot.
Despite having two off-the-bench infielders, Klentak claimed Engelb Vielma off the waiver wire from the San Francisco Giants. The decision-maker accomplished this right before the roster-setting deadline. Vielman averaged .286 in Double-A and advanced to Triple-A before fizzling out.
MiLB stats:
- Valentin, 23: 29 AAA Gms., 104 PA, a .229 Avg., 1 HR and 7 RBI.
- Alvarez, 23: 54 AA Gms., 209 PA, a .247 Avg., 4 HR and 26 RBI.
- Vielma, 23: 87 AAA Gms., 314 PA, a .206 Avg., 0 HR and 17 RBI.
Regarding offseason possibilities, Klentak could trade his current double-play combo if he receives the right offer. And if he deals one or both, he’ll only do it for a hard-to-get pitcher or hitter. He’s ready for a big if.
As for expectations, the asking price will probably be a three-slot starter in his late 20s or younger or a decent hurler in the high minors with a mid-90’s fastball. However, other preferences are a southpaw starter or a left-handed bat with power. A package deal will have a better–if not great–chance.
Minor league candidates:
For his trial run with Lehigh Valley, outfielder Carlos Tocci hit .189 in only 54 plate appearances. He earned that last-minute shot because of his .307 average for 474 PAs with the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils. However, he did not receive roster protection.
After serving an 80-game PED suspension, lefty Elniery Garcia, 18th in the pipeline, started five contests with the Fightin Phils: He went 2-1 with a 1.75 ERA. And even though this was his first crack at Double-A ball, the deciding factor against risking his loss in the draft was probably his considerably below-average ERA estimators (FIP and xFIP). Analytics and/or PEDs?
On the other hand, righty Franklyn Kilome had a 3.64 ERA for five Reading starts with slightly below-average ERA estimators for his first innings there. But the seventh-ranked talent in the farm system is still on course for Philadelphia.
Regarding right-hander Seranthony Dominguez and portsider Ranger Suarez, they had acceptable numbers and probably received standard promotions to the Single-A Advanced Clearwater Threshers. Translation: 85 percent certainty here.
Moving annually from rookie ball to Clearwater, righty Jose Taveras attracted attention last season with his 2.38 ERA for 16 starts. Problem? His four years were up, and he required a roster spot to avoid exposure to the Rule 5 Draft.
In only two outings with Reading, Taveras had a 3.97 ERA for 11 1/3 frames. Nonetheless, Klentak elevated him up another tier to the IronPigs: 3-1 with 1.32 ERA, which was good enough even with borderline ERA estimators.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “It’s better to be an optimist who is sometimes wrong than a pessimist who is always right.” – Mark Twain
Major league candidates:
At various Phillies sites, many fans demanded the second baseman Scott Kingery‘s promotion and believed management was holding him back to delay activating his MLB clock. But burning a roster slot then would eventually mean not protecting either Suarez, Dominguez, Taveras or someone else now.
For those who want to know, what is the exec doing? Presently, he has a well-stocked farm system and is trying to hold onto as many as possible. Yeah, happy problems you don’t even know about.
Last summer, Klentak auditioned four relievers for 2018’s bullpen and will continue his appraisal in March.
Beginning here with his waiver-wire claim, the decision-maker evaluated southpaw Zac Curtis picked up from the Seattle Mariners: Curtis had a 1.08 MLB ERA and a 2.45 ERA for the red and white. He appeared in three games for each organization.
Curtis, 24:
- MLB: 6 Gms., 8 1/3 Inn. and a 1.08 ERA.
- Mariners: 3 Gms., 4 2/3 Inn. and a 0.00 ERA.
- Phillies: 3 Gms., 3 2/3 Inn. and a 2.45 ERA.
- AA: 41 Gms., 51 1/3 Inn. and a 3.51 ERA with 13 Saves.
Although right-handers Ricardo Pinto and Yacksel Rios had struggled, Klentak kept the two flamethrowers for the same reason he did with Luis “Compa G” Garcia. Both are in the four-hurler mix for a middle relief opening during spring training.
Pinto, 23:
- Phillies: 25 Gms., 29 2/3 Inn. and a 7.89 ERA.
- AAA: 11 Gms., 20 2/3 Inn. and a 0.00 ERA.
Rios, 24:
- Phillies: 13 Gms., 16 1/3 Inn. and a 4.41 ERA.
- AAA: 13 Gms., 18 1/3 Inn. and a 1.96 ERA.
- AA: 24 Gms., 38 Inn. and a 1.89 ERA.
Perhaps, the most interesting candidate of the four is Victor Arano: The slider-twirling righty had a 1.69 ERA with solid ERA estimators for 10 2/3 innings. But it will take more than 10 outings to make the active 25. Basically, the two guys with average stuff had the best numbers.
Arano, 22:
- Phillies: 10 Gms., 10 2/3 Inn. and a 1.69 ERA.
- AA: 32 Gms., 38 2/3 Inn. and a 4.19 ERA.
According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, GMs and agents in an informal poll for this offseason picked the Phillies more than any other club. And while every franchise prepares for the Winter Meetings, what did those competitors name the locals? The mystery team!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
* In splits, just basic info is available.
MiLB hitting stats:
- Valentin, 23.5: 29 AAA Gms., 104 PA, a .229 Avg., a .282 OBP, a .292 SLG, a .063 ISO, a .266 BABIP, 1 HR, 7 RBI, a .573 OPS and a -0.6 WARP.
- Alvarez, 23: 54 AA Gms., 209 PA, a .247 Avg., a .321 OBP, a .382 SLG, a .134 ISO, a .328 BABIP, 4 HR, 26 RBI, a .702 OPS and a 0.2 WARP.
Vielma, 23.5:
- AAA: 87 Gms., 314 PA, a .206 Avg., a .233 OBP, a .260 SLG, a .054 ISO, a .266 BABIP, 0 HR, 17 RBI, a .493 OPS and a -0.7 WARP.
- AA: 34 Gms., 141 PA, a .286 Avg., a .362 OBP, a .328 SLG, a .042 ISO, a .312 BABIP, 0 HR, 18 RBI, a .690 OPS and a 0.5 WARP.
Tocci, 22:
- AAA: 17 Gms., 54 PA, a .189 Avg., a .204 OBP, a .245 SLG, a .057 ISO, a .220 BABIP, 1 HR, 4 RBI, a .449 OPS and a -0.2 WARP.
- AA: 113 Gms., 474 PA, a .307 Avg., a .362 OBP, a .398 SLG, a .091 ISO, a .356 BABIP, 2 HR, 48 RBI, a .760 OPS and a 2.3 WARP.
Pitching stats:
E. Garcia, almost 23:
- AA: 5 Gms., 25 2/3 Inn., 2-1, a 1.75 ERA, a 4.55 FIP, a 6.13 xFIP and a 1.32 WHIP.
- 2016 A+: 20 Gms., 117 2/3 Inn., 12-4, a 2.68 ERA, a 3.58 FIP, a 3.52 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.
Taveras, 24:
- AAA: 7 Gms., 41 Inn., 3-1, a 1.32 ERA, a 4.20 FIP, a 4.40 xFIP and a 1.00 WHIP.
- AA: 2 Gms., 11 1/3 Inn., 0-1, a 3.97 ERA, a 3.84 FIP, a 3.34 xFIP and a 0.97 WHIP.
- A+: 16 Gms., 102 Inn., 6-4, a 2.38 ERA, a 3.99 FIP, a 3.45 xFIP and a 1.07 WHIP.
Curtis, 24.5:
- MLB: 6 Gms., 8 1/3 Inn., a 1.08 ERA, a 5.08 FIP, a 5.65 xFIP, a 4.71 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.08 WHIP.
- AA: 41 Gms., 51 1/3 Inn., 13 Saves, a 3.51 ERA, a 3.20 FIP, a 3.63 xFIP and a 1.21 WHIP.
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Pinto, 23.5:
- Phillies: 25 Gms., 29 2/3 Inn. a 7.89 ERA, a 6.36 FIP, a 5.39 xFIP, a 5.01 SIERA, a -0.5 fWAR and a 1.89 WHIP.
- *AAA: 11 Gms., 20 2/3 Inn., a 0.00 ERA and a 0.58 WHIP.
- *AAA: 8 Starts., 40 Inn., 3-3, a 5.85 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP.
Rios, 24:
- Phillies: 13 Gms., 16 1/3 Inn. a 4.41 ERA, a 5.91 FIP, a 5.13 xFIP, a 4.49 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.47 WHIP.
- AAA: 13 Gms., 18 1/3 Inn. a 1.96 ERA, a 4.26 FIP, a 3.68 xFIP and a 0.76 WHIP.
- AA: 24 Gms., 38 Inn., a 1.89 ERA, a 2.38 FIP, a 2.77 xFIP and a 0.84 WHIP.
Arano, 22.5:
- Phillies: 10 Gms., 10 2/3 Inn. a 1.69 ERA, a 1.85 FIP, a 3.35 xFIP, a 3.18 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 0.94 WHIP.
- AA: 32 Gms., 38 2/3 Inn. a 4.19 ERA, a 4.54 FIP, a 3.80 xFIP and a 1.29 WHIP.
Next: Phillies: Making the cut
Suarez, 22:
- A+: 8 Gms., 37 2/3 Inn., 2-4, a 3.82 ERA, a 2.59 FIP, a 3.00 xFIP and a 1.43 WHIP.
- A: 14 Gms., 85 Inn., 6-2, a 1.59 ERA, a 2.87 FIP, a 2.80 xFIP and a 0.89 WHIP.
Dominguez, almost 23:
- A+: 15 Gms., 62 1/3 Inn., 4-4, a 3.61 ERA, a 3.70 FIP, a 3.22 xFIP and a 1.30 WHIP.
- 2016 A: 10 Gms., 48 1/3 Inn., 5-2, a 2.42 ERA, a 3.30 FIP, a 3.42 xFIP and a 1.12 WHIP.