Philadelphia Phillies: How accurate will these 3 forecasts be?

2 of 4

Barring a solid trade offer, Hernandez will hit his next triple in a Phillies uniform. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

While Phillies fans await the next step in 2018 toward contention, they have their beliefs about players who demonstrated their potential to general manager Matt Klentak and his staff during 2017’s second half.

Three future stars:

During the upcoming campaign, the Philadelphia Phillies will have their share of ups and downs, and the locals will anticipate no end to the losing spells or the magic during winning stretches. And because a particular hitter doesn’t average .280 and/or belt 20 home runs, he will only let you down if you demand too much for your approval.

IN OTHER WORDS: “When you stop expecting people to be perfect, you can like them for who they are.” – Donald Miller

When it comes to the basics, GMs are open about their experiences. For instance, they say it takes a player three years to make an impact. And they mean the average major leaguer, not a superstar.

For the Phils, Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins are probably the exceptions because the time to make their mark could be a bit shorter. Yes, both are a cut above other regulars and starters.

As for J.P. Crawford, Jorge Alfaro and second baseman Scott Kingery, they will be facing challenges and obstacles with more difficulty. However, this article covers these three because they have only 171 MLB plate appearances between them.

Regarding Kingery, management wants 400-500 at-bats with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs before considering a promotion. And he had 265 ABs in the International League for ’17, but he’ll add another 200 by next May. Ergo, he’ll be a hot streak away from advancement near May’s end.

According to Hoskins during a clubhouse interview, Kingery is ready, and his numbers with the IronPigs and the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils basically confirm the first sacker’s evaluation in August. Kingery passed his teammate’s eye test.

Behind the front-office doors, Klentak will examine the second baseman’s plate discipline. Unfortunately, he dropped from average in walk percentage at Reading to the lowest category with Lehigh Valley: awful. And his strikeout percentage at Double-A went from above to below average after his elevation to Triple-A.

By comparison, Cesar Hernandez was above average in both categories for the campaign: 511 at-bats, 577 plate appearances, and 128 games. In other words, Klentak won’t quickly move Hernandez or promote Kingery.

As for the rookie-to-be, he’ll average roughly .280 in April and .300 for May with the IronPigs. Then, Kingery will see fastballs for his first MLB month, and he’ll get his first taste of success in the Show. And when he does, pitchers will make adjustments on him.

Crawford will be more dangerous with the bat in 2018. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. /

Wizard with a glove:

When the faithful weren’t talking about a gold glove, they figured swapping Freddy Galvis to make room for Crawford was a no-brainer. But the youngster hit only .214 in September despite a .356 OBP.

Although he’ll split playing time with Hernandez, Galvis and Maikel Franco, Crawford will have no difficulty defending those three positions. And even three or four games a week will mean plenty of playing time if he does more than accepting free passes.

When it comes to plate discipline, excellent (the top ranking) is 15.0 percent for walks, and Crawford didn’t earn his OBP without them. He recorded 14.2 percent with the Allentown affiliate and 18.4 percent with the red pinstripes.

After his top-10 label dropped before the second half, Crawford slightly changed his approach in the batter’s box. He began swinging at more pitches: less free passes but more knocks.

Crawford’s stats at Triple-A:

Through July 8: 75 Gms., 275 AB, 58 H, .211, 5 HR, 32 RBI, 50 K and 52 BB.
From July 9: 51 Gms., 202 AB, 57 H, .282, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 47 K and 31 BB.

Because Crawford was up in September, he will be more comfortable during and after spring training. Additionally, he’ll depend on his adjusted Triple-A approach to reach .250 for the parent club by June 1.

WORDS OF WISDOM: “We start with gifts. Merit comes from what we make of them.” – Jean Toomer

The Phils expect more power out of Alfaro next year. Photo by Corey Perrine/Getty Images. /

Behind the mask:

With questions in hand, Double D, a poster from another Phillies site, asked about expectations for Alfaro. Well, he’ll be the regular in April, but the skipper and his coaches will give him an earful about doing more than hitting singles.

In 2016 after striking out eight times over 17 plate appearances, last summer Alfaro heard the coach’s advice to go with the pitch. The result was 23 singles, six doubles, five bombs and a .318 average.

Alfaro’s stats:

August: 12 Gms., 45 AB, 16 H, .356, 2 Dbls.,1 HR, 5 RBI, 13 K and 3 BB.
September: 17 Gms., 62 AB, 18 H, .290, 4 Dbls., 4 HR, 9 RBI, 19 K and 1 BB.

With his effort to provide for more power in September, Alfaro’s average fell, but he batted .290 with four long balls per month: 24 annually. As for a prediction, the hometown nine will be happy with a .260 mark and 15 homers. But the key will be improving his defense.

Trading Hernandez for pitching was another question from Double D. Well, Klentak is fielding calls but not offers of interest, and the Phillies won’t accept more control-dependent hurlers or Single-A prospects.

Translation: They want a three-slot starter or a young flamethrower in the upper minors, but other organizations can keep those pitchers due to other available second sackers. And even a package deal for a veteran arm with Hernandez, a catcher and two finesse hurlers will still require a team needing both a second baseman and a catcher.

In other words, the Phils would either move Cameron Rupp or Andrew Knapp. And two of these four would be in the exchange: Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, Ben Lively and/or Thomas Eshelman.

With Hernandez, their leadoff man, on the disabled list, the red pinstripes went 9-22 from June 10 through July 16. What were they from July 17 to season’s end, Double D? A record of 36-36!

Next summer, Galvis will have competition for playing time. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Plate-discipline comparison:

Crawford:

Triple-A: 17.4 K% and 14.2 BB%.
Phillies: 25.3 K% and 18.4 BB%.

Hoskins:

Triple-A: 15.8 K% and 13.5 BB%.
Phillies: 21.7 K% and 17.5 BB%.

Hernandez:

Phillies: 18.0 K% and 10.6 BB%.

Kingery:

Triple-A: 16.1 K% and 8.8 BB%.
Phillies: 20.3 K% and 4.5 BB%.

Williams:

Triple-A: 29.4 K% and 5.2 BB%.
Phillies: 28.3 K% and 5.8 BB%.

Alfaro:

Triple-A: 32.3 K% and 4.6 BB%.
Phillies: 28.9 K% and 2.6 BB%.

According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.

Rating	K%	BB%
Excellent	10.0%	15.0%
Great	12.5%	12.5%
Above Average	16.0%	10.0%
Average	20.0%	8.0%
Below Average	22.0%	7.0%
Poor	25.0%	5.5%
Awful	27.5%	4.0%

Next: Phillies: Acquiring needed pieces

Phillies:

Hernandez, 27.5: 128 Gms., 577 PA, a .294 Avg., a .373 OBP, a .421 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .353 BABIP, 9 HR, 34 RBI, a .793 OPS, 3.3 fWAR, 15 SB, 5 CS and a 6.0 Spd.
Galvis, 28: 162 Gms., 624 PA, a .255 Avg., a .309 OBP, a .382 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .292 BABIP, 12 HR, 61 RBI, a .690 OPS, a 1.6 fWAR, 14 SB, 5 CS and a 5.3 Spd.

While Phillies fans await the next step in 2018 toward contention, they have their beliefs about players who demonstrated their potential to general manager Matt Klentak and his staff during 2017’s second half.

Three future stars:

Wizard with a glove:

Behind the mask:

The Numerical Bible:

More from Call to the Pen