Phillies' trading strategy with winter meetings looming

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Hernandez has the most value of any available Phillie. Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images. /

While the Phillies will have three days during the Winter Meetings to strike a bargain, the competition for mid-rotation arms will be fierce for general manager Matt Klentak, and he’ll need every ounce of creativity and some good fortune to succeed.

Pros and cons:

The Philadelphia Phillies are in no position to overpay for pitching because they are not a contending team. But moving Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis without filling a need is not the answer.

IN OTHER WORDS: “Additional problems are the offspring of poor solutions.” – Mark Twain

With the powwows and horse-trading ahead from Dec. 10 to Dec. 12, Klentak will negotiate to improve the Phils to the next step in rebuilding toward a more competitive product on the diamond. A valiant endeavor.

To figure out the possibilities for the front office, it requires determining areas of strength and weakness along with the value of available talent. But if they swap a regular, the replacement will be an essential factor in the equation.

In the “have” column, the red pinstripes will continue with their three outfielders, their corner infielders and two of their catchers. And that leaves Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp, Hernandez and Galvis as the favorites for a new employment address.

Removing Hernandez and Galvis from the Opening Day roster, the hometown nine must count on J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery as the new double-play combo. But what will Klentak receive for Hernandez and/or Galvis, and will it be worth it?

With four position players to deal, the need is strictly for hurlers. And an expensive closer isn’t at the top of the wish list. In other words, the organization has an ace and a handful of other starters.

In an October interview, Phillies president Andy MacPhail stated that he told the owners he didn’t expect to be signing free agents: limited options. So, making a trade is the only other route for a major acquisition, but contenders will overpay for a solid rotation piece.

Galvis has more value for the Phillies than a return of a Single-A prospect in a deal. Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. /

Other voices:

On Phillies sites, fans can name some top-dollar pitchers and suggest acquiring one because the franchise has the money. Well, unless a GM can go deep into the playoffs, he won’t guarantee $100 million or more to a 31-year-old starter for at least five summers.

Those free agents will take the highest bid from contending clubs needing frontline arms to win the division instead of betting the entire 162 on the Wild Card Game. In other words, some of the faithful don’t realize their own expectations. Outbid an overpaying contender?

Many posters on Phillies sites are certain Hernandez will net a solid starter, and Kingery will man second base, leadoff and improve the offense. Unfortunately, Kingery hit .279 last April for the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils but finally raised his average over .300 on May 27.

Regarding Galvis, the estimated return is a decent Single-A prospect after initially failed offers. But adding another hopeful for the defensive wizard will make the red and white weaker, not stronger. A dead end!

Perhaps, Crawford will hit .250 and bat in the bottom third of the lineup, but the rookie is not a proven commodity, while Galvis is. And Crawford only produced a .214 average in September for an also-ran.

The locals will show little patience if he begins the season as he did in 2017 with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. He didn’t rise above the Mendoza Line for good until June 23. Three months?

Rupp may be circling the bases in another uniform next summer. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

Choices ahead:

For Klentak, unfortunately, other organizations have many first and second sackers to pick from, and their proposals will reflect the current market. Therefore, Joseph might only be a balancing piece in any deal for Hernandez and/or Rupp.

As for receivers besides Jorge Alfaro, Andrew Knapp is another trade chip along with Rupp. But backstops have value in this market even for a secondary role.

While a one-for-one swap of Hernandez, Galvis, Joseph, Rupp or Knapp isn’t an inspiring possibility, a multi-player or three-team deal will probably be the preferred approach for management.

But acquiring a solid addition to the five-man staff also includes parting with either right-handers Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, Ben Lively and/or Thomas Eshelman in any package.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “The five S’s of sports training are: stamina, speed, strength, skill, and spirit; but the greatest of these is spirit.” – Ken Doherty

For instance, other clubs will certainly offer better prospects for southpaw Danny Duffy if the Kansas City Royals decided to rebuild. So, opportunities for restructuring franchises will not be smooth sailing either.

If the red pinstripes can’t make a complicated trade, Klentak will again have to add veteran starters on one-year contracts. Hopefully, some buzz will reach our ears with encouraging news of rotation help instead of another stopgap hurler for every fifth day. It’s one or the other!

The Phils may have to part with Knapp instead of Rupp in a multi-player deal. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies:

Phillies’ trading strategy

While the Phillies will have three days during the Winter Meetings to strike a bargain, the competition for mid-rotation arms will be fierce for general manager Matt Klentak, and he’ll need every ounce of creativity and some good fortune to succeed.

Pros and cons:

Other voices:

Choices ahead:

The Numerical Bible:

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