Atlanta Braves: Winter meetings primer, what to expect

The Atlanta Braves are making the trip to Orlando for the winter meetings. What can fans expect?

The Atlanta Braves are headed to the winter meetings in the community where they’ve been preparing to start the season the last few seasons in their spring training home on the Disney World complex. While the setting may be familiar, the environment for the team will be new for the organization, certainly much different than experienced for a number of years.

What will the Braves be doing to prepare for the long-term future and for the 2018 season specifically?

Atlanta Braves offseason thus far

The Braves have been well-known for striking before the winter meetings on deals in the past, and in fact, they often have a major deal or two done before Thanksgiving comes around. This season was much different throughout baseball, but certainly for the Braves.

Because of the sanctions the Braves were handed on what has become known among Braves fans as Black Tuesday, the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, and the preceding investigation into misdeeds in the international dealings of the organization in the last few seasons by Major League Baseball, the Braves have been fairly inactive thus far in the offseason.

The biggest move of the offseason to this point was actually disposing of a player, trading away Jim Johnson to the Los Angeles Angels along with some international signing funds for a low-level pitching prospect. The Braves also made notable non-tender moves, choosing not to offer a contract to Matt Adams, Danny Santana, and Jace Peterson.

On the acquisition side, the Braves have struck for relief arms on the cheap, claiming RHP Chase Whitley and LHP Grant Dayton off waivers and trading for RHP Josh Ravin. They also signed infielder Christian Colon to a minor league deal.

So what does the team need on the roster going into the season?

Next: Current holes

Current roster holes

With the non-tenders of Adams, Peterson, and Santana, the biggest and most glaring hole on the team offensively. On the pitching side, the bullpen is one spot where many fans see a tremendous need, but how the bullpen is constructed will be interesting in the new front office. Regardless of whether it’s through a reliable bullpen arm or bringing in a veteran starter, a reliable arm that can give certain innings with the youth on the pitching staff is a definite need.

Let’s look at each individually on an internal basis:

Bench
The Atlanta Braves have been through a significant rebuild the last few seasons that has put them in the spot where they have a number of players at the major league level or within striking distance of that level. That could allow the bench issue to be less of a problem.

While super prospect Ronald Acuna won’t be brought to the major leagues to sit the bench, the Braves are already set fairly well with Lane Adams covering the outfield off the bench as he did tremendously well in 2017.

The infield could rely significantly on how the team chooses to man third base. Johan Camargo had a successful season at the major league level, and he offers the flexibility to cover a number of other positions. Rio Ruiz really has little more to show at the minor league level and is at a point where he needs consistent major league at bats to see if he’s a long-term fit. The team also (for some reason, unbeknownst to any Braves observer) has Adonis Garcia still on the roster.

While Camargo is really the only backup at shortstop or second base currently on the 40-man roster, the team could certainly make a move or two to sign a cheap veteran to fill that role. One thing to note – while Adams has no options left as the primary backup outfielder, all of Ruiz, Garcia, and Camargo do have options, so shuffling them between the majors and AAA to fill 3B with the hot hand throughout the season is certainly something feasible on a roster construction standpoint.

In the minor leagues really only Colon and long-time Braves farmhand Carlos Franco would really figure in to the bench discussion.

An additional arm
The Braves may have painted themselves into a bit of a corner with their offseason moves already with their bullpen. Of the 8 projected members of the bullpen, 5 currently are without options. That would mean bringing in a veteran bullpen arm likely would mean one of those arms is not on the 25-man roster, which means they’d be exposed to waivers.

The three bullpen arms that aren’t out of options are three of the team’s most certain bullpen members in Arodys Vizcaino, A.J. Minter, and Dan Winkler. Not currently in the projected bullpen, but also out of options would be hard-throwing righty Mauricio Cabrera.

The Braves will certainly be utilizing youth in their bullpen and especially in their rotation in 2018. Even though Max Fried had one of the best pitching performances at the Arizona Fall League and Luiz Gohara was dominant at times in the major leagues at the end of 2017, one or both could open 2018 in the minor leagues if the team chose to pursue a veteran arm.

The elder of the rotation, Julio Teheran, will be just 27 on opening day, which would certainly give the Braves one of the youngest rotations in the game.

So who on the roster could be on the move in the next week in order to fill some of these holes?

Next: Trade chips

Atlanta Braves winter meeting trade chips

With bench depth and reliable innings being the primary targets, the Braves may want to use some current roster members in order to target players they want to fill those spots. Let’s look at some guys who could be on the move:

Veteran Outfielders
The discussion after Shohei Ohtani signed with the Angels was less about whether he should be considered a prospect for this year’s prospect rankings (most have come to accept that methodology, even if flawed for just one year) and more about whether he should be assumed the #1 prospect. The Braves have one of the two guys most frequently mentioned to supplant Ohtani in that top spot in Ronald Acuna, and after a dominant performance in the Arizona Fall League and impressive play at both AA and AAA in partial seasons, he’s knocking hard at the major league door.

The issue are two statue-esque veterans in the outfield. No, seriously, they play defense like they’re statues! Okay, terrible humor, but you’re not reading for the punch lines.

Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis represent just under half of the money on contract to players for the Braves in 2018 with $30 million owed to them by the team. However, neither is really an asset to a rebuilding club. Kemp would be best served as a DH with an American League club, and certainly he’s the priority for the Braves to move with another season beyond 2018 on his deal.

Markakis is owed $11 million in 2018 on the last of his 4 year, $44 million deal that he signed with the Braves in the 2014-2015 offseason. His ability to make contact is still present, but he is not a power hitter (and really never has been), and his defense has slipped to the point where it’s a liability with both he and Kemp in the outfield. However, if Kemp were moved, Markakis would be much more palatable with uber-defender Inciarte in center along with natural center fielder Acuna playing a corner.

Infielders
The Braves do have a depth of third basemen, none of whom are overwhelming favorites to take the third base job for 2018 and beyond, so it would not be surprising if they were used in a deal to acquire another piece, even another 3B.

The least likely to be moved is probably Camargo as he does provide the team with options off of the bench with his ability to handle short and second. Ruiz is young enough that the team could get something nominal by putting him into a trade package, but Garcia is likely a throw-away piece in a deal.

Young arms
Last, but absolutely not least, the Atlanta Braves have built their entire rebuild around the strength of their young pitching. In doing so, they built up the team with waves of pitching.

The first wave of pitching was less than successful for certain with Mike Foltynewicz really being the only one who’s stuck. That’s left Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair still young (under 26 on opening day) and really out of the team’s plans. Both would benefit from a change of scenery, though neither would really anchor any sort of major deal.

The second wave has really just begun in earnest last season as Sean Newcomb established himself in the rotation, and Lucas Sims, Fried, and Gohara each got extended looks in the rotation while the bullpen saw the emergence of a handful of young arms.

The next part of that second wave will start pushing more from the bullpen in 2018, however guys who were really supposed to be part of the “third wave” for the Braves have now pushed themselves forward and become elite prospects and feasibly etched themselves into the future of the team.

While “Folty” would likely have very good trade value, without bringing back a veteran starter (or the Braves signing a veteran arm), losing Folty from the rotation would take away one of the three arms (Teheran and Newcomb being the others) who the team are likely certain will give them 150+ innings, injury notwithstanding.

The most likely place for young arms to be moved from would be the plethora of arms in the minors, of course, but also from that second wave which still has plenty of trade value and really has more arms than spots to put them at the major league level.

So we know who could be on the move if a deal were to happen, who could the team be targeting to bring in this week?

Next: On the radar

Free Agents

On the free agent market is probably the best spot to find that bench player. However, it may drive fans nuts that the team could be looking a while, unless a player is willing to sign for a discount or the team is willing to overpay.

The name that sticks out to me as a guy to pursue would be Danny Espinosa. Espinosa has the defensive ability certainly to get a starting job, but his elite defense backing up second and short along with his ability to provide a bit of pop if he needed to start for a short amount of time.

Behind Espinosa, the Braves could either go “big” for a guy like Eduardo Nunez and utilize his versatility in their lineup at third and backing up both middle infield positions or they could go after much lesser names.

Those “lesser” names would include Ryan Flaherty, Nick Franklin, Ryan Goins, Alen Hanson, and Adam Rosales.

For arms, the team will want to target guys who could give consistent innings from the rotation or bullpen, likely not elite starters or closer types. CC Sabathia would make some sense, as would Jason Vargas as lefty starters that could give the team a sure 150-200 innings of league average or better pitching.

Out of the bullpen, reliable arms like Steve Cishek, Brian Duensing, Luke Gregerson, Brandon Kintzler, Pat Neshek, Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith, and Anthony Swarzak should be able to give 50-75 innings to the pen with quality results.

One intriguing target could be rehab guys or “conversion” guys, guys coming back from surgery or guys who could be a candidate to convert from the rotation to the bullpen. Targets for this would be Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Pineda, Wily Peralta, Jordan Lyles, or Drew Hutchison.

Rule 5

One other way that the Atlanta Braves could fill their needs would be to acquire players in the Rule 5 draft. The team has 37 players on their 40-man roster, which would allow the team the opportunity to select a few players if they felt there was room to keep them for the 25-man roster for 2018.

There is a difference between the best players available in Rule 5 and the best players that fit for the team, and the Braves are a good example. For instance, someone like Jake Cosart could be an intriguing guy for a lot of teams due to his velocity and secondary stuff, but he needs polish in his control, and that just wouldn’t work for the Braves, who would need immediate contribution.

Guys that could be a logical target would include Nick Burdi, the Twins reliever with a big fastball that will miss most of 2018 recovering from Tommy John. Another Twin reliever, Luke Bard or Jake Reed, could also be a good target.

The Yankees could also provide a number of targets, with Jose Mesa and Reynel Espinal providing big arms that have experience starting and relieving and could give long relief innings. First baseman Mike Ford could also be an intriguing choice as a bench-only bat with impressive eye at the plate that would be excellent as a pinch-hitting bat, though he really wouldn’t provide a ton of defensive value.

If the Braves did move Kemp or Markakis and had the spot for him, a reunion with former Braves farmhand Victor Reyes would also make a lot of sense. He can play all three outfield positions, and he’s developed his impressive athleticism into a very solid player.

So what could be the biggest thing to determine how this week goes for the Atlanta Braves?

Next: Wild Card