New York Yankees: Who will lead the team in home runs in 2018?

The New York Yankees have a powerhouse offense that could easily boast six to seven guys with 20 home runs. But of all the free-swinging sluggers, which one will hit the most bombs next season?

Every game at Yankee Stadium could essentially turn into a home run derby for the New York Yankees.

New York already smacked the most homers of any team in 2017. Then general manager Brian Cashman added outfielder Giancarlo Stanton to the mix.

Stanton truly fits in perfectly with the “Bronx Bombers” title, as he’s crushed 267 career bombs already. That ranks 15th among active players, and he’s still just 27 years old.

The former face of the Marlins’ franchise joins a crew of power hitters in Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Didi Gregorius. Throw in the Greg Bird’s potential as a slugger and a full season from Aaron Hicks, and the New York Yankees could have six players that exceed the 30-homer mark.

With the juiced ball phenomenon and the rise of home runs in the league as a whole, New York could see a couple of dingers every evening. Now the club needs to find a section named for Stanton – is he the bailiff in the “Judge’s Chamber”?

Analysts and fans typically convey Yankee Stadium as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league.

They aren’t wrong.

It ranks second in park factors in the home run category, slightly behind Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. One reason for this is the short right-field porch, which sits 314 feet from home plate down the line. The distance stretches to 385 in right-center, but it is still shallow compared to most other parks.

There were 47 home runs hit that failed to reach 370 feet in distance. Only two stadiums had more home runs that fell into that category – Safeco Field with 50 and Minute Maid Park with a whopping 65.

While the shortest home run hit in all of last season was 321 feet at Fenway Park, Yankees Stadium was home to one at 327 a few in the 330s. That means Bird, Gregorius, and Brett Gardner all somewhat has an advantage.

With all of these hitters’ hitting capability, it’s somewhat difficult to forecast who will launch more home runs next season. But everyone, including myself, has a guesstimate.

Everyone not named Judge, Stanton or Sanchez

Sure, the big three can easily smash 40 dingers out of the park, but there are still other guys on the roster. Granted, injuries happen, which could allow one of the other New York Yankees crack the top two in home runs on the team.

Clearly, there will be some guys that, barring some steroid injections and corked bats, won’t crack even 20 home runs. Sorry, Ronald Torreyes.

That being said, a high percentage of players on the squad can go on hot streaks. Gardner, at 34 years old, set a career-high in home runs last season with 21. But the list of players that could sit atop the list boils down to three – Gregorius, Bird, and Hicks.

Gregorius was arguably the team’s most improved hitter in 2017. His development as a middle-of-the-lineup guy proved to be crucial, especially in the Wild Card matchup.

But fans may deem his 25 home runs from last season a fluke. At least 10 of those hits were considered “just enoughs” on ESPN’s home run tracker. And nearly half of them – 12 to be exact – didn’t reach 370 feet. Don’t blame the home stadium though, as only five of the 12 were hit at home.

The shortstop does have the potential to surpass the 30-homer mark because he’s become a pure hitter. His home-run per fly ball rate was a career-high this past year at 11.8 percent. And he hit more fly balls than anything else this season.

Gregorius may be no match for Hicks, though, who 15 home runs in 301 at-bats, which was 230 fewer at-bats than the middle infielder. But if Hicks hits as well as he did in the second half of last season, he may not even reach 10 dingers.

Stanton’s addition to the New York Yankees means Hicks may not see playing time every day, either, depending on the designated hitter situation. Very few of his home runs were considered lucky or barely reached the seats.

Thus, he could have an opportunity to see 30 home runs come off his bat, if he plays like the Aaron Hicks in the first half of 2017. Time will tell whether his season at the dish was a fluke or not.

Bird is the ultimate wild card. He flashed his brilliance and what seemed like unlimited power in Spring Training. Yet, he didn’t have many opportunities to send balls into left field during the regular season thanks to injuries.

Considering that Bird has just 348 career at-bats under his belt, fans may be skeptical. But some analysts are on the Bird bus, claiming he will be one of the more productive first basemen in the league.

If he can hit the ball, it will go far. Yet, one of the most significant improvements the New York Yankees need from Bird is his contact ability. He’s hitting .227 in his regular season career, but nearly a third of his hits are round-trippers.

If the 25-year-old pans out well, he could ultimately find himself the team’s leaderboard in home runs.

Aaron Judge

The American League’s leading home-run hitter could be even better in 2018.

After surpassing the rookie record for homers in a season, Judge may struggle in recreating a similar season. And maybe he shouldn’t focus on the long ball as much next year, rather than learning to make contact.

Judge broke another, more notorious, a record that gained considerable attention. He struck out in 37 straight games in the regular season, nearly 24 percent of the games he played in 2017. He was the league-leader in whiffs as well.

But he also possesses some plate discipline, as he accrued 127 walks, second-most in the MLB. Ultimately, fans can argue that he either hits a home run, walks or strikes out. It’s not a ridiculous theory.

However, as everyone saw in the Home Run Derby, his power overshadows everything else in his repertoire. His home runs can attest to that.

Not only can Judge send balls over the fence, but he can also send them deep into the seats wherever he is. Ten of his bombs landed further than 450 feet from home plate. And 16 of them were deemed “no-doubters.”

Will he once again exceed 50 home runs?

It’s a difficult feat. The last hitter in the AL to swat 50 homers in back-to-back seasons was Alex Rodriguez in 2001 and 2002. But Rodriguez admitted to taking steroids, beginning in 2001, so that could have helped him achieve that.

If Judge can lower his strikeouts, he could once again reach at least the 40-home-run mark. But considering that he did have a few bombs that barely landed over the fence, Judge may not reach 50 next season.

Either way, he’s still likely going to finish atop the home run list for the New York Yankees.

Giancarlo Stanton

How magical would it be to see Stanton crush more than 50 home runs during his first season in the Bronx?

The outfielder is in a similar boat as Judge in that it is unlikely that he surpasses 50 homers next season. But unlike Judge, Stanton’s biggest flaw isn’t his contact ability. It’s his health.

Stanton essentially missed 25 percent of the possible games during the first eight seasons in his career. However, his days of boasting glass bones and paper skin may be behind him.

He played in a career-high 159 games in 2017, which allowed him to garner a substantial amount of home runs over the year. The New York Yankees hope he can continue that dominant stretch into 2018.

Of the several players mentioned, Stanton is likely the best bet to lead the team in home runs. Last season, the NL MVP notched 24 “no-doubters,” almost 10 more than Judge had.

But he didn’t launch every one of his bombs into the stratosphere. Fifteen of them barely made it over the fence, as they were labeled “just enoughs.”

Nevertheless, everything clicked for the former Marlins franchise player. Before last season, the most bombs he crushed in a season was 37. And at the time it seemed like a lot.

While there remain some conspiracy theories about juiced baseballs, most fans believe Stanton’s sheer strength and ability to stay on the field correlated with his home run amount. And it seems reasonable, as he demonstrated his power in the past – and at home run derbies.

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Fangraphs predicts Stanton will garner 55 homers across the season for the New York Yankees, which is apparently doable.

He was able to smash more than that in a park that ranked 25th in home runs in park factors.

Yankee Stadium isn’t the most hitter-friendly park, but Stanton can quickly make it look like that.

Maybe the most interesting statistic is that Stanton hit a lower percentage of fly balls in 2017 than each of the previous two seasons.

Hence, when he puts balls in the air, there’s a more substantial chance that it will actually end up out of the park.

That is something worth noting, especially in the Bronx.

Of course, Stanton could get hurt and limit his chances at the dish, which would give Judge, Sanchez and everyone else an opportunity to sit atop the team in home runs. 

Next: Castro never part of Yankees plans of the future

But as of now, Stanton is very likely to lead the New York Yankees in bombs. What a way to start a career with a new team.