Addressing the two biggest Phillies’ rumors
After the Phillies’ signings and the excitement since the Winter Meetings, fans are expecting more from general manager Matt Klentak, and the rumor mill only fuels their hopes for a winning 2018 campaign.
Rumor vs. substance:
While the Philadelphia Phillies have shown interest in two stars on east coast teams, understanding the level and scope of involvement is not a given. And it varies from the pessimist to the optimist, but missing information creates a void filled by the latest buzz.
IN OTHER WORDS: “If something is true, no amount of wishful thinking will change it.” – Richard Dawkins
When fans know the possible origins of the scuttlebutt, they realize specific motivations could be the driving force to benefit a particular party. Usually, the source is not apparent, but one fact can unmask the illusion.
Some agents are notorious for creating and spreading the word regarding talks between their client and particular franchises. Of course, the reason is not only to initiate a possible deal but also to raise the value and length of a contract.
Secondly, some organizations are not innocently conducting business either. They want to reap the biggest return for the player they are moving. On the other hand, the Phils’ approach is to keep their competitors in the dark.
As for writers, preconceived notions can color their beliefs because they can be victims of the current rumors as well. And their need to find material only compounds the situation if they can’t read between the lines.
When it came to the Winter Meetings, scribes in attendance sometimes relied on visual clues for their articles. And seeing two GMs exiting a powwow can in itself lead to speculation based on the needs of each club. Additionally, other writers can then build on those assumptions.
According to Klentak in an interview after the wheeling and dealing at the meetings, he had spoken with the other 29 decision-makers in the last month, but only the strongest possibilities continued during the December confabs. Ergo, due diligence.
On the other hand, interest going back to last July had a life of its own even if a franchise had changed their direction. But sometimes a writer being thorough can include every team since the trading deadline to have talked about an individual player.
Even though a stud remains available, a team could acquire a power hitter in another position and might not need the star still on the market. Or a promoted outfielder enjoying big league success could solve that pressing need. Situations change.
If a division rival adds to an embarrassment of riches, another front office can conclude their playoff chances are now slim. Ergo, they retool or rebuild their roster and adjust their projections accordingly. Another direction ensues.
Targeted acquisition:
Before an outfield injury led to the advancement of Nick Williams, the Phillies had approached the Miami Marlins about Christian Yelich. He was a fit for the middle-of-the-order threat Klentak desired before inking Carlos Santana.
While the buzz in mid-July involved the upcoming availability of Giancarlo Stanton, the hometown nine coupled their offer for Yelich with a salary dump regarding Stanton’s contract. Of course, everything was on hold until the sale of the franchise.
Yelich, 26, is only one of two regulars Miami is keeping as a foundation piece going forward. Translation: He can average .280 to .300 and blast 20-25 homers with 80 to 100 RBIs. Young catcher J.T. Realmuto is the other starter.
In the scheme of things, the Marlins also know Yelich’s contract is team-friendly: $44.5 million remaining through 2021. But when he was off the table, any Phillies’ interest in Stanton was too. Yet some scribes kept them in the mix until the swap with the New York Yankees five months later. They weren’t!
Before the Phils moved Freddy Galvis to the San Diego Padres for flamethrower Enyel De Los Santos, they had aggressively pursued a deal. And the reasons were a projected commitment of $7.4 million and his final year before free agency.
Handling the defense will be J.P. Crawford, who will make the MLB minimum, roughly $7 million less than Galvis. In other words, the red and white will still have an elite glove without possibly sacrificing much offense.
Slugger for sale:
For the last two summers, the locals have vocalized about picking up Manny Machado. He’ll be a free agent after ’18 but, currently, the asking price is too high.
The Baltimore Orioles had entered November to add pitching and contend for the postseason, but New York, their divisional foe, acquired Stanton. So, when they only had a small chance now for serious October baseball, their strategy regarding Machado changed.
While the faithful have coveted Machado, accelerating his departure from Baltimore wasn’t in Klentak’s plans. Speed bump! The exec wanted to sign him after the next 162 without swapping any top prospects.
Although Machado can hit .280 to .290 with 30-35 home runs and 80 to 100 RBIs, he is a right-handed bat, and the Phillies were heavy from the right side until acquiring Santana. That stated, the Orioles will have plenty of suitors for Machado.
Before trading Galvis, Machado’s desire for a return to short was more problematic for the red pinstripes. He switched to the hot corner because Baltimore had a shortstop before his major league debut.
According to the Orioles, 10 clubs have made substantial offers for Machado. Substantial bids for a one-season rental have an inflated sound, no? And Machado wants to test the market and will not negotiate an extension with any organization.
Additionally, Baltimore owner Peter Angelos does not want the Yankees to have Machado. Not now or next July! In fact, Angelos will only approve a deal with a contender to avoid the Yanks acquiring Machado through a new team.
As for Klentak’s offer to the O’s, his proposal like others was probably light because he has no guarantee beyond one campaign. In other words, a mid-July trade for Baltimore seems more plausible.
One or the other:
In typical fashion, Phillies sites provided a wealth of advice for the hometown nine. For instance, including Scott Kingery in a package for Machado was good for some and bad for others.
The locals also disliked a lot about Santana. They complained about his age, the dollar amount of his contract, taking Rhys Hoskins‘ job at first base and Hoskins’ defense in left field.
On the other hand, Santana is a switch-hitter and will protect Hoskins in the lineup. Moreover, opposing managers won’t be able to pitch around Hoskins to face Williams. Age-wise, he’s younger than Jake Arrieta. But fans want to sign the starter for five years or more.
Concerning rumors, the faithful love to imagine the acquisition of an ace or a slugging cleanup hitter. And they also like to criticize the general manager for his moves. But not Tommy Hunter?
Yes, some locals are also unhappy about the return of Pat Neshek. And many disapprove swapping Galvis and receiving De Los Santos.
WAXING PHILOSOPHICAL: “No fight is harder than the struggle against the thing you want most to believe.” – Martha Albrand
To sum up, you can see a mirage and enjoy the batting order with Machado or Mike “The Millville Meteor” Trout in it. You can wonder about Arrieta in the rotation. On the other hand, you can understand Klentak’s approach. You have a choice.
The Numerical Bible:
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This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Plate-discipline comparison:
MLB:
- Santana: 14.1 K% and 13.2 BB%.
- Machado: 16.7 K% and 7.2 BB%.
- Yelich: 19.7 K% and 11.5 BB%.
Crawford:
- Triple-A: 17.4 K% and 14.2 BB%.
- Phillies: 25.3 K% and 18.4 BB%.
Hoskins:
- Triple-A: 15.8 K% and 13.5 BB%.
- Phillies: 21.7 K% and 17.5 BB%.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
MLB:
- Santana, 31.5: 154 Gms., 667 PA, a .259 Avg., a .363 OBP, a .455 SLG, a .196 ISO, a .274 BABIP, 23 HR, 79 RBI, an .818 OPS and a 3.0 fWAR.
- Machado, 25.5: 156 Gms., 690 PA, a .259 Avg., a .310 OBP, a .471 SLG, a .213 ISO, a .265 BABIP, 33 HR, 95 RBI, a .782 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.
- Yelich, 26: 156 Gms., 645 PA, a .282 Avg., a .369 OBP, a .439 SLG, a .156 ISO, a .336 BABIP, 18 HR, 81 RBI, an .807 OPS, a 4.5 fWAR, 16 SB, 2 CS and a 5.2 Spd.
Next: Phillies: Trading with a division rival
Phillies:
- Galvis, 28: 162 Gms., 624 PA, a .255 Avg., a .309 OBP, a .382 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .292 BABIP, 12 HR, 61 RBI, a .690 OPS, a 1.6 fWAR, 14 SB, 5 CS and a 5.3 Spd.
Crawford, almost 23:
- Phillies: 23 Gms., 87 PA, a .214 Avg., a .356 OBP, a .300 SLG, a .086 ISO, a .306 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, a .656 OPS and a 0.2 fWAR.
- AAA: 127 Gms., 556 PA, a .243 Avg., a .351 OBP, a .405 SLG, a .162 ISO, a .275 BABIP, 15 HR, 63 RBI, a .756 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.