Toronto Blue Jays top 10 prospects for 2018
We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound. We continue our top 10 prospects for every team with the Toronto Blue Jays!
Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the Toronto Blue Jays.
This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of 2017 record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.
The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player. Major trades or international signings will lead to an updated top 10!
Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.
System overview
The Blue Jays as a team are in a peculiar spot. The team has some quality veterans in Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Pillar, and Russell Martin. However, the depth of their team is lacking, and their farm system is not incredibly stacked in the upper minors.
A few seasons back, the New York Yankees were in a similar position and leveraged intelligent work in the draft and foreign markets along with quality trades of their veterans when the opportunities presented themselves to help not only build up one of the best farm systems in the game, but also get the major league club quickly back into contention.
The Blue Jays seem to be in a position to do something similar. The arms heralded in the system coming into 2017 seemed to all have a poor year, the top middle infielder in the system took a big step back, and arguably the power hitter closest to the majors also struggled.
However, the team should have two of the top 10-20 prospects in all of the game as lists come out this offseason, and there are some very high upside options lower in the system that could leap forward quickly.
While the Blue Jays system is not a top 5 system currently, if the team were to commit to a re-tool, they could very quickly get to that point.
Let’s take a look at that system….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Max Pentecost, C
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/10/93 (25)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Blue Jays, high-A Dunedin Blue Jays
2017 Stats: .274/.330/.431, 316 PA, 9 HR, 23/62 BB/K
Info: Pentecost was the 11th overall selection in the 2014 draft, with an excellent ability behind the plate and an advanced bat as well, with many considering him one of the best catching prospects to leave the draft in many years.
He came out his draft year and put up a .324 batting average with excellent gap power and got plenty of people excited while showing very good receiving and blocking skills. Then he was off the field all of 2015 with injury before only being allowed to DH in 2016.
In 2017, (Pentecost) returned behind the plate, though the Blue Jays did not have him catch on back to back days
In 2017, he returned behind the plate, though the Blue Jays did not have him catch on back to back days, mixing in time at first base and DH to keep his body fresh. Pentecost still has a quality bat with excellent gap power, and that hasn’t left him.
What the Blue Jays were pleased to see when Pentecost was able to catch was that he had all of his ability to block and move laterally back when he was behind the plate, but he did need recovery time afterward.
Pentecost will already be 25 this season, and he’s yet to play in AA, which is why he was most likely passed over in the Rule 5 draft, but he could still provide plenty of value if he is able to slowly build up his endurance again behind the plate.
Even if he’s in a role akin to what Evan Gattis has done with the Astros and Braves over the years, that would provide tremendous value to a team with his quality ability to make contact.
Pentecost should get his first shot at AA in 2018, and it will be imperative that he shows well after all the time he’s missed.
9. Eric Pardinho, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 1/5/01 (17)
2017 teams/levels played for: none
2017 Stats: none
Info: Brazil had a good year in the pitching market. Luiz Gohara became the second Brazilian to make a start on the mound in the major leagues, joining former big leaguer Andre Rienzo. Gohara was dominant at times with the Braves, feasibly securing a 2018 rotation spot at just 21 years old in 2017.
Pardinho represented Brazil as arguably the top arm available in the 2017 international free agent class. He and Gohara could not be more opposite in build, as Gohara is a 6’5″, hefty lefty. Pardinho is 5’9″ and listed at 160 pounds, and that seems to be a stretch.
Pardinho has tremendous stuff and polish, which is very rare for as young as he is. He works in the low-90s and can run the ball up to the upper 90s. His curve is one that Statcast will love as it has an incredible spin rate and hard, sharp break, seemingly nose-diving underneath bats.
He’s working with the Blue Jays to learn a change and may work some further alterations to his grips to maximize his shorter stature, which right now is the biggest knock on Pardinho, as his pitching is as advanced as you could hope for from a Latin signing in the July 2nd market.
He should begin his pro career in the Gulf Coast League in 2018.
Next: #7 and #8
8. Richard Urena, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/26/96 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats, MLB Toronto Blue Jays
2017 Stats: .247/.286/.359, 551 PA, 5 HR, 30/100 BB/K; MLB: .206/.270/.309, 75 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, 6/28 BB/K
Info: Urena coming into the season was a top-100 caliber player, but while his defense continued to show well at shortstop, where he has some of the best reactions you’ll see, allowing him to stay at short in spite of below-average speed.
His aggressive approach at the plate led to a wall in 2017, as he seemed to be at the will of advanced level pitchers, who could pitch around his aggressive approach, and get him to roll over a “pitcher’s pitch”. He is a switch hitter and can really get to the gap well from the left side, but he has to get the barrel on the ball first.
Urena has the hands and instincts to stick up the middle, and he’s young enough that he’ll get more chances, but he’s gone from one of the top prospects in the game to a guy who is clinging on to the bottom of the Jays top 10 this winter.
7. Lourdes Gourriel, 2B/SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/19/93 (24)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Dunedin Blue Jays, AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats
2017 Stats: .229/.268/.339, 254 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, 12/43 BB/K
Info: A stat line like that from a 24 year old with a half-season in AA typically wouldn’t be cause for a ranking in a top 10 list as that’s usually the line you’d see from an org guy, not a future possible starter. However, Gourriel is not your typical 24 year old.
This past season was Gourriel’s first in the major leagues after signing in the offseason. There were some significant concerns about his ability to handle pro pitching well in his first year after essentially being forced away from the game for all of 2016. Those concerns proved to be founded.
Gourriel comes from Cuban baseball royalty, as his father is one of the elites in the history of the game in Cuba. Lourdes was playing in Serie Nacional at 16 years old, and in his final season at age 21, hit .344/.407/.560 with 10 home runs in just 59 games.
Gourriel comes from Cuban baseball royalty, as his father is one of the elites in the history of the game in Cuba.
After Lourdes and his brother Yuli defected, there were significant concerns about their safety due to their family’s prestigious place within the Cuban baseball community. While Yuli had left the country previously to play professionally in Japan, this was Lourdes’ first venture outside of the country, and some were worried that he could have outside interests that may want to endanger his life.
Lourdes has the arm to handle short and the instincts to stick up the middle defensively, and he showed well with the glove in the Arizona Fall League.
His adjustment to pro pitching was less smooth for sure, but even in Arizona he was beginning to put very good wood on the ball and flashed that top end athleticism that made him highly desired when he left the country.
It wouldn’t surprise at all if he repeated AA to open 2018,and now that he’s finally healthy and got a year back under his belt again, he could really take off.
Next: #5 and #6
6. T.J. Zeuch, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/1/95 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Blue Jays, high-A Dunedin Blue Jays
2017 Stats: 15 G, 14 GS, 65 2/3 IP, 3.56 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 6.4% BB, 17.2% K
Info: Zeuch was the Blue Jays first round selection in 2016, and the discussion last year at this time was how impressive his pro debut was in spite of the ERA as he moved all the way up to class A ball in his debut, striking out 38 and walking just 7 in 34 innings.
The University of Pittsburgh product uses his 6’7″ frame to get incredible life on his fastball that can reach the upper 90s, and his change showed some impressive fade this season that played very well off of the heavy fastball.
Zeuch’s injury this season really clouded what was one of the few highly-regarded pitchers in the system who showed well when on the mound. He utilized his curve very well and mixed his slider in sequencing well. The combination of all four pitches working at an average or above level (his fastball is a certain double-plus pitch with the life he gets, but the rest would grade out as raw average pitches) only was made better by very notable improvements in Zeuch’s command.
After missing time, the Blue Jays sent Zeuch to the Arizona Fall League to get him some extra innings on his arm, and he continued to show very well, putting up nearly the exact underlying line there as he had in high-A.
Zeuch is not a guy who will likely ever be striking out a batter per inning, but he keeps batters off base with good command and pitches that are near-impossible to square up. He most likely will have a ceiling of an effective #3, but his floor is that of a quality #5, so there’s really a high level of “surety” already with Zeuch at this point, which does elevate him on my board.
Obviously much could still happen for a young pitcher between now and the major leagues, but Zeuch will get his next challenge in 2018 when he steps up to AA New Hampshire. If all goes well, he could be pushing for a spot in Toronto at some point in 2019.
5. Logan Warmoth, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/6/95 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Blue Jays, short-season A-ball Vancouver Canadians
2017 Stats: .302/.350/.418, 197 PA, 2 HR, 6 SB, 8/35 BB/K
Info: Warmoth was the best of a fairly weak college middle infield crop in the 2017 draft. However, that does not take away from the very solid player that he became in his time with North Carolina.
Warmoth is not the most smooth defender, but he gets to plenty at the position and can handle the position well. Warmoth’s certainly going to stick up the middle, whether he sticks at shortstop or does move to second base eventually.
Warmoth’s certainly going to stick up the middle, whether he sticks at shortstop or does move to second base
Warmoth received the most note for his work at the plate over the last season or two. He’s got a high baseball IQ and utilized that into good pitch recognition, though he would expand his zone and get aggressive with a pitch that he believed he could handle well.
Warmoth will likely project to be a guy who hits for .260-.280 batting average with 8-12 home runs and a load of doubles. He’d likely also put up double digit steals, likely as much due to baseball IQ as speed.
Warmoth may not be a future superstar or going to ever be a guy who flashes such that you notice him immediately on the field, but he’s not going to be a guy that you’re likely going to remember for loudly screwing up either. He’s a steady player that should fit well up the middle as he progresses, likely starting with full-season ball in 2018.
Next: #3 and #4
4. Nate Pearson, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/20/96 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Blue Jays, short season A-ball Vancouver Canadians
2017 Stats: 8 GS, 20 IP, 0.90 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 7% BB, 36.6% K
Info: Pearson, along with Brendan Little, had plenty of people heading down to watch Florida junior college pitching this spring as he was dominating for Central Florida Community College. The big question was where to select him, which the Blue Jays answered when they plucked him in the first round, 28th overall.
Pearson’s natural velocity is incredible, as he uses his big 6’6″ frame to generate triple-digit heat with plane and weight on the fastball. His fastball was not in question before the draft, but it was how he could handle the rest of his repertoire that had some not sure if he was destined for a rotation or a bullpen, leading to the questions of where he should be drafted.
Pearson’s natural velocity is incredible, …triple-digit heat with plane and weight on the fastball.
In his pro debut, however, he came out and showed a tremendous feel on his slider that touched 90 a couple of times but sat 85-88 with late, sharp movement. He showed better handle on his change, though it’s still a work in progress, and he even used his curve well as a “show me” pitch.
Seeing the slider move from a fringe-average pitch to a fringe-plus to plus pitch is a huge step as far as Pearson’s ability to develop into a starter down the road and immediately gives him a very high floor as a dominant reliever if he’s not able to develop a third pitch with the fastball/slider combination.
What also impressed in his time in pro pitching was his control and especially his fastball command. Both aspects of his game were average at best coming into the draft.
Pearson will see full-season ball, and if he makes the same level of progress in 2018 as he showed in 2017, he could end up being a huge steal for the Jays and a significant mover in the top 100 lists by the end of the season.
3. Anthony Alford, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 6/20/94 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Dunedin Blue Jays, AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats, AAA Buffalo Bisons, MLB Toronto Blue Jays
2017 Stats: Minors: .299/.390/.406, 324 PA, 5 HR, 19 SB, 36/55 BB/K; Majors: .125/.125/.250, 8 PA, 0/3 BB/K
Info: Alford has not played a ton, and for many less informed of his situation, he’s docked for a lack of previous playing time. However, much of that is due to playing college football for the first few years of his minor league career and then suffering through some “freak” injuries other than that.
This season, Alford made such an impression over the first part of the season that when the Blue Jays had literally every other outfielder on their 40-man roster unavailable, Alford was called up to sit the bench for a few days. He ended up getting injured in the major leagues and missed some significant time before coming back.
Many guys who are elite athletes and play two sports struggle with plate discipline and some of the more nuanced things of the game, but that is not an issue with Alford. He is natural on the bases, in the outfield, and he has an exceptional idea of the strike zone at the plate.
Due to his time with football, he has been slower to develop, and he will likely not make an impact at the major league level until he’s 23/24 (in 2018/2019), but the talent is certainly there.
While Alford has the instincts and athleticism to handle center field, he has the arm to work well in right field as well and could be an elite defender in right, along the lines of what Jason Heyward can do in right field vs. center field.
Offensively, he profiles similar to a former Blue Jay, Devon White, with good bat control that could lead to an excellent contact rate, the athleticism and natural strength to hit double-digit home runs, and speed enough to add in 20+ stolen bases, especially early on in his career, though Alford doesn’t exactly have double-plus raw power or anything like that.
Alford should open 2018 at AAA, and right now, there is enough question in the Toronto outfield that he could push his way there, but the offseason is young, and the team could still sign another player to add depth to their outfield mix in the majors, which would likely leave 2019 as the first season Alford could push for a starting role at the big league level.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Bo Bichette, SS
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/5/98 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Lansing Lugnuts, high-A Dunedin Blue Jays
2017 Stats: .362/.423/.565, 499 PA, 41 2B, 14 HR, 22 SB, 42/81 BB/K
Info: What more can you say about Bo Bichette in 2017? He opened the season by flirting with .400 in the Midwest League, winning the league’s batting title in spite of spending most of the second half of the season in high-A.
Bichette showed tremendous ability to find the gaps, squaring up balls consistently all season long. He has the ability to make contact throughout the strike zone, and he was able to continue hitting well, even with his promotion.
One of the big questions coming into the draft was Bichette’s ability to stick at short. While he’s not an instinctual shortstop, he makes all the plays and works hard at the position. He was able to show above-average defense in 2017 due the work he put in at the position.
Whether Bichette’s home is shortstop or he moves to second or third, he has shown the ability to stick on the dirt and certainly has shown the ability to hit very well just one year removed from being drafted.
Bichette will most likely open 2018 at AA, and he’s very feasibly going to be among the top 20-25 prospects in the game when rankings come out this offseason.
1. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., 3B
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/16/99 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Lansing Lugnuts, high-A Dunedin Blue Jays
2017 Stats: .323/.425/.485, 527 PA, 13 HR, 8 SB, 76/62 BB/K
Info: If you see the name Vlad and think of his free-swinging, uber-athletic father, then you’re missing out on who exactly Guerrero is. Last season, as I went to put together my top 125 prospects in baseball list, I kept finding Guerrero move up as I compared him to guys around him, finally ending up with Vlad Jr. as the #11 overall prospect on my January list, well above lists that came out later in the spring.
Needless to say, Vlad’s first full season in the minor leagues left little doubt to his talent level. He’s likely going to be among the top 3-5 prospects in all of baseball this winter with all rankings, and he has a very legitimate case for #1 overall.
Vlad’s first full season in the minor leagues left little doubt to his talent level.
However, Vlad is not his father by any means. In fact, the name that I began to hear after I put together that list last season and have been hearing frequently ever since, including recently in Baseball America’s top 10 Blue Jays prospects list by Ben Badler, who doesn’t throw out big names lightly. The name that has been used often is Manny Ramirez.
Guerrero has that level of ability to make consistent hard contact, while he has the ability to not just control the strike zone, but to flat-out dominate the strike zone with his ability to understand the zone. One particular scout referred to a game last season where he was talking with an umpire after a game who said that if Vlad is at the plate, he’s already learned that a ball he doesn’t swing at has to be absolutely incredible to be in the zone.
Having that level of hitting maturity and in-game present power already as an 18 year old in full-season ball is absolutely incredible. Even more so is to consider that he will likely spend 2018 in AA as a 19 year old and could even force the case to get a late season call up.
For me, he’s in the top 3 prospects in all of the game.
Next: Newcomer to watch
2017 Acquisition: Hagen Danner, C
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/30/98 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Blue Jays
2017 Stats: .160/.207/.248, 136 PA, 2 HR, 3 SB, 5/36 BB/K
Info: Danner was a two-way guy in high school with the ability to play both catcher and third base, but his premium pop times behind the plate led to the Blue Jays starting his pro career as a catcher.
People first got a look at Danner in the 2011 Little League World Series championship, and he’s had plenty of attention throughout his youth career, playing on the national team for two summers and getting an invite to essentially every major showcase out there.
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Danner was more highly-regarded by many as a pitcher, and it could be intriguing to see how long the Jays stick with Danner behind the plate if he struggles offensively before they put him back on the mound. From the hill, he had a low-90s fastball with life and very impressive curve.
Danner does have excellent athleticism, but his best attribute at the plate is his raw power, which has been graded anywhere from plus to double-plus. He will need to continue to develop his bat to tap into that power, however.
While Danner’s 2017 in the GCL was disappointing, what was surprising was his struggles with plate discipline. While he hasn’t ever been a guy who was considered a plus or better hit tool type of guy, but he has shown good pitch recognition at showcases and especially good zone recognition, so while it’s not a crazy high rate, for Danner to post a 26.5% strikeout rate was surprising for many who had scouted him heavily pre-draft.
He will be moving likely to advanced rookie ball in 2018, and, as with most high school catchers, he will take his time developing his skills behind the plate first and let the bat come as the defense gets the focus.
Next: Blue Jays investigate PED suspensions
That’s the Blue Jays top 10 prospects going into the 2018 season. Who was too high? Who was too low? Who was missing? Let us know in the comments below!!