Baltimore Orioles: Top Ten Prospects for 2018

We have reached the point of the offseason where prospect lists abound. We continue our top 10 prospects for every team with the Baltimore Orioles!

Our team top 10 prospect lists at Call to the Pen are spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten prospects for the Baltimore Orioles.

This season, we will be going through teams by division, in order of 2017 record. The AL East will be first, followed by the AL Central and AL West. Then the focus will shift to the National League in the same order.

The format will be as it was last season for the same lists, with a system review, which will include last season’s list. The top 10 will follow in reverse order, two players per page in order to give adequate space to each player. Major trades or international signings will lead to an updated top 10!

Finally, don’t go away after #1 is revealed as each list will also contain a player either signed in the 2017 international free agent class or drafted in 2017 that isn’t part of the top 10 and should be tracked. Last season’s mentions in that area made over half of the top 10s this season, so this is a great way to get to know a player who could be making a big splash in the organization.

System overview

Last year’s list

While the Orioles have had a rough farm system for a number of years, and that certainly continues into 2018, there is something rare to brag about – an actual top 100 bat, and possibly even two. The Baltimore Orioles have had excellent prospects in recent years, but those prospects who received top 100 notice were typically pitchers outside of Manny Machado and Matt Wieters before him.

The current Orioles have seen Wieters leave and face the likely departure of Machado, if not in trade before his free agency after the 2018 season, certainly he won’t be back in free agency after the season. The team also has All Star center fielder Adam Jones in that same free agent class, meaning two of the biggest stars on the team will be walking out the door at the end of the 2018 season if the team does not choose to rebuild.

With the Baltimore Orioles really being synonymous with ignoring the entire international free agent market, there will be a long road ahead once that rebuild starts, but the good news is that there are a few players at the top of the system right now that can help push the youth movement forward at the major league level as the team builds underneath them, akin to what players like Anthony Rizzo and Jose Altuve did in Chicago and Houston, respectively, before being rewarded with eventual championships.

The farm system behind that top few, though, is quite barren, filled with high-floor, low-ceiling types or extreme risk types, and even then the depth is not heavy.

Let’s take a look at that system….

Next: #9 and #10

10. Zac Lowther, LHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/30/96 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: short season A-ball Aberdeen IronBirds
2017 Stats: 12 G, 11 GS, 54 1/3 IP, 1.66 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 5.3% BB, 35.9%

Info: One of two second round picks for the Baltimore Orioles in 2017. Lowther was selected in the competitive balance B round with the 74th overall pick. Lowther was the ace for Xavier this spring and jumped up draft boards with his spring performance.

A lefty without huge stuff, Lowther required a tremendous spring run to jump into the conversation in the 2nd round, even after dominating the Cape Cod League in 2016, striking out 54 and walking just 5 in 35 2/3 innings.

Lowther isn’t going to blow anyone away with velocity, but he is exceptional using his deception in his delivery

Lowther isn’t going to blow anyone away with velocity, but he is exceptional using his deception in his delivery that is accentuated by his low 3/4 delivery that makes the ball incredibly difficult for pitchers from both sides to pick up.

Lowther tops out at 92 MPH, working primarily around 90 with excellent late movement. He has a slurvy breaking ball that gets excellent angle as well as late bite to make it difficult for righties or lefties to square up. His change worked better in pro ball than in college, likely in large part due to sequencing.

Lowther showed very well in pro ball, likely due to his advanced pitchability. He doesn’t have a high ceiling, but due to his advanced ability to control the zone and sequence hitters, he should be able to advance to the upper minors with success. At that point, he will have to see how he can attack those hitters.

Lowther will open in full-season ball in 2018, and going on the example of how the team handled 2016 collegiate draftees, he has a chance to open with high-A Frederick.

9. Alex Wells, LHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/27/97 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Delmarva Shorebirds
2017 Stats: 25 GS, 140 IP, 2.38 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 1.8$ BB, 20.6% K

Info: Wells is the twin brother of Minnesota Twins lefty Lachlan Wells, and both pitchers have worked their way into full-season ball. In Alex’s first season, he made a huge impression in the South Atlantic League with his incredible command and control.

Wells is still fairly recent to the game, having only really played baseball now for a dozen years. For that little experience, Wells has a tremendous feel for pitching.

Wells works with a fastball that tops out in the low-90s and sits just under 90 MPH, working with an average curveball and above-average change that all play up due to his exceptional command of all three pitches. He’s shown an exceptional ability to set up hitters and keep hitters off-balance.

Wells has a fairly low ceiling due to his lack of velocity and sharp breaking stuff, but his command will allow him to continue to have success against lower level hitters. His real test will likely not come in 2018 as he’ll spend 2018 in high-A before moving up to the upper minors in 2019.

Next: #7 and #8

6. Hunter Harvey, RHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/9/94 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Orioles, short-season A ball Aberdeen IronBirds, low-A Delmarva Shorebirds
2017 Stats: 8 GS, 18 2/3 IP, 0.96 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.2% BB, 41.1% K

Info: If only Harvey could just stay healthy, he could be such a valuable asset for the Orioles, whether at the major league level or in a trade. He seems to be injury prone, but he’s seemingly finding his way to significant injuries, not little stuff that keeps him out for extended time, as he’s missed time with Tommy John surgery and a shin fracture as part of his injuries.

Harvey returned to full strength by the end of the season, but he was still struggling to throw deep into an appearance. Harvey’s stuff has front line potential if he can maintain health, with a fastball that touches 97 MPH and sits in the 92-94 range with good plane from his arm extension.

Harvey’s curve was also back by the end of the season and is his best pitch when it’s at its best, a fringe double-plus pitch with big, late break that gets not just swing and miss but BAD swing and miss. The change didn’t come out much in games in 2017, but he has the ability to get sink on the pitch with his arm angle in the same manner as his fastball.

Harvey is still an elite talent, but he does now have a 40-man spot as he had to be added to keep him from the Rule 5. His more natural projection is as a good #2/#3 starter in the mold of a Chris Archer type, but if he hits all the top ends, he still could be an ace.

At 23, Harvey has not yet pitched above low-A in his career, so it’s feasible that the Orioles could push him to AA to open 2018 now that he’s healthy, but they could also want to start him with their high-A club and see him progress up the levels as well.

5. DL Hall, LHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/19/98 (19)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Orioles
2017 Stats: 5 GS, 10 1/3 IP, 6.97 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 20.4% BB, 24.5% K

Info: In many of the 2017 pre-draft rankings of high school arms, Hall was considered to have the best curve ball of any pitcher in the draft, high school or college. When he was still there at pick #21, the Orioles were overjoyed to add his promising arm into their system.

Hall doesn’t have a huge frame to project on, as he’s just 6′ tall and weighs in at 180 pounds, and he doesn’t own a premium fastball, seeing velocity up to mid-90s, but relying on location to be effective, as the pitch does not show a ton of movement.

When (Hall) was still there at pick #21, the Orioles were overjoyed to add his promising arm into their system.

Hall appeared overmatched in his first pro innings, and that has moved many off of him, lowering his ranking within the Orioles system below this significantly, in spite of his talent level likely warranting being even higher than this. Those moving off of him seem to forget that he was considered to have as much or more upside as fellow prep lefty Mackenzie Gore, who is receiving note as one of the top 50ish prospects in the entire game.

Hall struggled to locate his fastball in his pro time, and though he did locate his change better than his fastball, it hurt the effectiveness of the change as neither the fastball nor change have much in the way of natural movement. He will need to work with the Orioles to develop grip changes to gain some movement on his pitches as well as finding the zone more consistently as he moves forward.

His likely opening destination for 2017 is full-season class-A ball, but the Orioles could choose to keep him at extended spring and send him to the New York-Penn League as well to develop the effectiveness of his overall repertoire. Regardless, this is an arm to watch with a very high upside.

Next: #3 and #4

4. Chance Sisco, C

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/24/95 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: AAA Norfolk Tides, MLB Baltimore Orioles
2017 Stats: Minors: .267/.340/.395, 388 PA, 7 HR, 2 SB, 32/99 BB/K; Majors: .333/.455/.778, 22 PA, 2 HR, 3/7 BB/K

Info: I’ll gladly accept being the low man on Sisco at this point as he won’t make my top 100 list, and he’s not in my top 2 Orioles prospects, where he seems to be firmly planted for most people (or at least #3 if not top 2).

Sisco was a 2nd round pick out of high school, having just moved to catcher his final year of high school, and he has shown his entire time in the minor leagues an ability to make consistent contact, hitting .311 in the minors, and even hitting .333 in his 10-game MLB debut in 2017.

Behind the plate, there are plenty of questions of what Sisco will be. He can be exposed in the run game, as indicated by his 0-5 performance in just 10 major league games attempting to catch base stealers.

(Sisco) has shown his entire time in the minor leagues an ability to make consistent contact

Sisco has the ability to frame well behind the plate, but that is really his one redeeming tool behind the plate. Even then, Sisco ranked poorly in that via Baseball Prospectus’ catching metrics, he was listed as being a -5.0 framing runs catcher in AA in 2016 before having +5.6 framing runs in 2017 in AAA and -0.5 framing runs in MLB.

Sisco will likely require a quality defensive backup for his team if he’s relied upon as the primary catcher, and he’s not even going to offer the same amount of power as other contact-first catchers have in the past like Joe Mauer, but he probably fits more offensively in the profile of a guy like Francisco Cervelli.

Cervelli is able to provide value to his team with his excellent defense along with the bat, which brings to question how much value an empty contact bat will have for Sisco without high-quality defense.

Sisco is likely to open the 2018 season in Baltimore as the primary catcher in Baltimore.

3. Tanner Scott, LHP

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/22/94 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: AA Bowie Baysox, MLB Baltimore Orioles
2017 Stats: Minors: 24 GS, 69 IP, 2.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 15.9% BB, 30% K

Info: The fact that he started 24 games is a bit misleading as the Orioles worked him just a few innings in each start, but Scott was moved to the rotation after spending the first couple of seasons in the bullpen after being drafted in 2014.

Scott has easily the most electric arm in the entire system, with a fastball that tops triple digits that Scott can manipulate in multiple ways, getting sink and cut on the pitch when he desires. The slider in the fall league was an absolutely devastating pitch, climbing over 90 MPH and showing incredible late bite.

That pair would set Scott up as an excellent option to work in an Andrew Miller type of role for the Orioles, going multiple innings out of the bullpen. He’s struggled to see his change work at more than an average level, but if his fastball/slider combo can both play as double-plus pitches, a third pitch needs not be more than a show-me pitch to be effective for multiple innings.

The discussion through the season was that Scott would be used a a starter. That would have him down the rankings a few spots as he’d have multiple seasons of development left to do before he was able to reach the majors to build up the ability to go 5+ innings consistently.

I’m putting Scott here as I believe that he’ll be going to Baltimore to open the season, especially now with Zach Britton out to open the season, and I think Scott will show himself to be a dominant force from the left side for the Orioles bullpen.

Next: #1 and #2

2. Ryan Mountcastle, SS

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/18/97 (21)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Frederick Kays, AA Bowie Baysox
2017 Stats: .287/.312/.489, 538 PA, 18 HR, 8 SB, 17/96 BB/K

Info: In the 2015 draft, they went after one of the top talents in that season’s draft with the 36th overall pick with a Florida prep infielder with big upside. After three seasons of pro ball under his belt, Mountcastle is still playing at shortstop, in spite of that being one of the major questions that caused him to be available at the Orioles’ pick in the first place.

Mountcastle has remained at shortstop still as he’s progressed, not growing off of the position quite yet. He’s probably not a long-term shortstop, and when he was promoted to AA Bowie, his below average arm was exposed in a move to third base. Mountcastle’s natural athleticism has allowed him to cover ground well at short thus far, leading many to think he could handle second base well.

Mountcastle has filled into his 6’3″ frame well, and many believe he could end up at first base in the end, where he could be a good defensive first sacker with some development.

He has an aggressive approach at the plate that leads to plenty of contact with his incredibly quick bat and plus to double-plus raw power. In 2017, his power showed up very well in high-A in the Carolina League, not traditionally a spot where power shows up well. On top of his 18 home runs, he powered 48 doubles combined on the season as well.

Mountcastle does have good zone recognition, but he is aggressive, and he tends to go hard after pitches within the zone, which keeps his walk rate low (3.2%), but it also keeps his strikeout rate very reasonable (17.8%). As he moves into the upper minors, that will be something that could be exposed more often, and Mountcastle will need to show the ability to lay off pitches as well.

After just 39 games in 2017, Mountcastle is most likely tagged for a return to AA to open 2018, but his impressive 2017 season has him on the fast track to make an impression on the Baltimore roster as soon as the end of the 2018 season if he can keep up his impressive progression on the offensive end.

1. Austin Hays, OF

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/5/95 (22)
2017 teams/levels played for: high-A Frederick Keys, AA Bowie Baysox, MLB Baltimore Orioles
2017 Stats: Minors: .329/.365/.593, 563 PA, 32 HR, 4 SB, 13/45 BB/K; Majors .217/.238/.317, 63 PA, HR

Info: While many were crazy over Kyle Lewis in the 2016 draft, imagining his impressive power translating from a small school college to professional baseball and how he could end up being the next great power hitter in the game, a select few were noticing a few of his opponents that season that also were quality players and had the chance to turn into possible major league players.

Hays was the co-leader in that clubhouse with now-Giants prospect Heath Quinn. Hays was selected by the Orioles in the 3rd round out of Jacksonville, and he immediately hit in the New York-Penn League, posting a .336/.386/.514 line with 4 HR and 4 SB in 38 games.

Hays has put himself into the discussion of the top power prospects in all of the minor leagues

The Orioles were aggressive with Hays in 2017, starting him with high-A Frederick in the Carolina League for his first full-season assignment. Typically not a great spot for a hitter, Hays came out dominating at the level, with 16 home runs in 64 games before being promoted to AA, where he accomplished exact same numbers. His pro debut wasn’t as tremendous as his other levels, but he also didn’t look overmatched, either.

Hays has put himself into the discussion of the top power prospects in all of the minor leagues with his hard work from the time he was a little-known high school prospect all the way through his time with coaches before games, where he’s known for his work to improve his game.

Hays is an impressive defensive outfielder, the type of guy who likely would fit as a passable center fielder, but he would be an above-average or even plus defensive right fielder. He is not blessed with elite speed, but gets good reads off the bat to allow his good straight-line speed to play up.

Hays has work to do in recognizing high-level breaking pitches, but that is really the last developmental thing he has left to do in the minor leagues before he’ll be ready to take over in the major leagues, and with Adam Jones a free agent after 2018, he could find himself having to strap on his center field cleats in 2019 in Baltimore.

Next: Newcomer to watch

2017 Acquisition: Adam Hall, SS

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/22/99 (18)
2017 teams/levels played for: Gulf Coast League Orioles
2017 Stats: .667/.667/1.000, 9 PA, 1 SB, 0/2 BB/K

Info: Canada has had recent success in the draft with prep draftees turning into premier prospects. Hall was one of the more notable infield prospects in the 2017 in the high school class. The Orioles were more than happy to get Hall in the 2nd round.

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

Hall may not get the notice this offseason from people that Zac Lowther or Mike Baumann do as 2017 draftees, but as far as upside, neither has the upside that Hall does. He has the defensive ability to stick at short and a bat that could absolutely be elite.

While the glove is something that some have said may need a move to third base down the road (where his plus arm would play well), his bat is what makes him an intriguing follow and my pick here over the other intriguing 2017 name in Baumann.

Hall has ridiculous bat speed that can flash plus power, but he struggles with his bat path, and the Orioles are working to shorten his approach into the zone to more adequately use his plus bat speed.

He does have considerable ceiling, but there is significant risk. He will be very fun to track going forward.

Next: Orioles have Britton hindsight

That’s the Orioles top 10 prospects going into the 2018 season. Who was too high? Who was too low? Who was missing? Let us know in the comments below!!