Philadelphia Phillies: A trade matchup for a pitcher

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The addition of Santana and the move of Hoskins to left field could make Williams available for a mid-rotation arm. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

While the Phillies faithful imagine an ace to head the rotation and start on Opening Day, general manager Matt Klentak is working the phone with his contemporaries and mentioning the talent on his roster of possible interest.

Spitballing:

During the offseason, the front office of the Philadelphia Phillies identifies players on other clubs they could envision in red pinstripes. However, getting to that point requires being familiar with the talent of all 29 other organizations.

IN OTHER WORDS: “I sometimes compare my brainstorming on paper to the drilling of oil wells. The only way to strike oil is to drill a lot of wells.” – Tom Monaghan

Considering franchises with available rotation arms, Klentak looked firstly to rebuilding teams or those headed in that direction. His most significant need is a left-handed starter in his late 20s with three years of cost certainty.

Since winning the American League pennant in 2014 and the 2015 World Series, the Kansas City Royals have dropped in the standings and are on a downward trajectory. Sound familiar? The roar of the crowd and the exhilaration of victory are in the rearview mirror, and restructuring is dead ahead.

Because of parity, Kansas City had their day in the sunshine, but baseball has made it difficult for any organization to sustain championship-caliber play. For instance, the MLB Draft is in reverse order of finish, the luxury tax discourages excessive spending, and the playoffs can stop any club.

Basically, teams grow old and drop in the standings by design. Or stars become free agents and too expensive. Eventually, rebuilding becomes the only remaining option.

In 2016, the Royals had finished 81-81 and last summer they were 80-82. But four of their everyday eight are free agents. The main three are the first baseman Eric Hosmer, third sacker Mike Moustakas, and center fielder Lorenzo Cain.

On a Royals site, some posters concluded the club with all of their regulars still isn’t a contender. And re-signing Moustakas and Cain will not change anything. However, Kansas City wants Hosmer to re-up.

Notice the difference between the fans mentioning two players, but the franchise’s primary interest is Hosmer, the youngest of the three. Have these supporters given up on Hosmer returning or are they hoping he will?

WORDS OF WISDOM: “You take an educated gamble. If you don’t occasionally make a mistake, you’re not doing your job.” – James Sinegal

With four outfield stars, Altherr is a possible trade piece for a starting pitcher. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. /

Brainstorming for a fit:

Barring the unlikely event of re-signing Hosmer, the Royals will need a center fielder, both corner infielders, and a shortstop. Hosmer is asking for $200 million over six or seven seasons, and $140 million for seven campaigns is $20 million apiece.

Currently, Kansas City has $102.2 million committed for 2018, and they want their payroll below $120 million. So, even if they give Hosner a contract for $17.7 million this 162–up from $12.25 million in 2017–they would need money for three regulars. Time to deal!

On the other hand, the Phillies can absorb a bad contract and handle a good one, and they have three players at or near the major league minimum. They have Tommy Joseph and Nick Williams or Aaron Altherr for first base and center field. Additionally, the Phils have shortstop Jose Gomez with the Single-A Advanced Clearwater Threshers.

Gomez, 21:

A+: 22 Gms., 98 PA, .250, 0 HR and 3 RBI.
A: 81 Gms., 351 PA, .324, 4 HR and 33 RBI.

Gordon, almost 34:

2017: 148 Gms., 541 PA, .208, 9 HR and 45 RBI.
2016: 128 Gms., 506 PA, .220, 17 HR and 40 RBI.

For his five-man staff, Klentak prefers a two-slot starter and the Royals have Danny Duffy, a controllable southpaw with a $60 million commitment remaining through 2021. And they have two bad deals: Ian Kennedy‘s $49 million and left fielder Alex Gordon‘s $40 million for three and two years respectively.

In other words, the red pinstripes would trade Joseph, Gomez and either Williams or Altherr, and the offer would increase, change, or decrease accordingly. The receiving end would be Duffy and Kennedy or Gordon and their full or partial contracts.

Duffy, 29:

2017: 24 Gms., 146 1/3 Inn., 9-10 and a 3.81 ERA.
2016: 42 Gms., 26 Starts, 179 2/3 Inn., 12-3 and a 3.51 ERA.

Kennedy, 33:

2017: 30 Gms., 154 Inn., 5-13 and a 5.38 ERA.
2016: 33 Gms., 195 2/3 Inn., 11-11 and a 3.68 ERA.

To sum up, the Phillies have some pieces the Royals could use and the ability to offer enough salary relief for a Hosmer re-signing. So, what will Klentak do to acquire Duffy from Kansas City’s GM? Motivate him!

Williams or Altherr could go to the Royals for Duffy. Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

MLB pitching:

Duffy, 29: 24 Gms., 146 1/3 Inn., 9-10, a 3.81 ERA, a 3.46 FIP, a 4.39 xFIP, a 4.31 SIERA, a 3.4 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
Kennedy, 33: 30 Gms., 154 Inn., 5-13, a 5.38 ERA, a 4.67 FIP, a 4.67 xFIP, a 4.88 SIERA,1.6 fWAR and a 1.32 WHIP.

MLB hitting:

Gordon, almost 34: 148 Gms., 541 PA, a .208 Avg., a .293 OBP, a .315 SLG, a .107 ISO, a .261 BABIP, 9 HR, 45 RBI, a .608 OPS and a 0.0 fWAR.

While the Phillies faithful imagine an ace to head the rotation and start on Opening Day, general manager Matt Klentak is working the phone with his contemporaries and mentioning the talent on his roster of possible interest.

Spitballing:

Brainstorming for a fit:

The Numerical Bible:

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