Phillies: Buying an ace
With the new year ahead for the Phillies, hopes, dreams, and wishful thinking are spread unequally from the “it’s a no-brainer” fan to the doubting Thomas in the crowd, but soon winter will turn to spring with windblown homers and a parade of hopefuls and veterans.
Asking price aside:
While the front office of the Philadelphia Phillies pieces together their Opening Day roster, fans have secure solutions for consideration. On the other hand, money is no object unless you’re paying the bill or responsible for the success of your decisions.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Yes, risk-taking is inherently failure-prone. Otherwise, it would be called sure-thing-taking.” – Jim McMahon
Regarding the rotation, the Phils have Aaron Nola and a handful of moundsmen for the other four spots. Even Jerad Eickhoff must earn a slot due to his difficulties last summer.
When the faithful consider free-agent hurlers, their favorite is Jake Arrieta. And they believe acquiring him should be the top priority for general manager Matt Klentak. Bar none!
As December draws to a close, the locals are growing impatient with management’s perceived foot-dragging. The only thing Klentak has to do is to outbid other franchises for Arrieta’s services, meaning what exactly?
Well, the dickering will begin at $160 million because Arrieta’s agent has stated that as the pitcher’s value. He wants $25 million for each of six campaigns.
However, Scott Boras is representing the ace, and he has the reputation of squeezing every dollar out of any organization willing to pay for the privilege. And he has invented some competition on occasion to raise the price.
Why not just pay the asking price? Well, Mr. Boras will realize he’s dealing with a novice and tell the GM he has a better offer elsewhere. Translation: $180 million for Arrieta.
On the information superhighway, many comments expressed familiar themes. For instance, Arrieta and Nola would be a solid one-two punch. And the red pinstripes could land a Wild Card spot by inking the star.
In fact, many believe it makes no sense to spend $60 million for Carlos Santana and not go all in. Otherwise, adding the first baseman was a fool’s errand. But spending $160 million for a one-game playoff isn’t smart either.
Reasons:
The Phillies are not one of the few teams to have success with Boras and his clients. Remember, the J.D. Drew debacle was with Boras in 1997. And the relationship–or lack thereof–hasn’t changed since.
When it comes to injuries on the diamond, starters are the most susceptible. And they can miss a year or more during a long rehab and still need another season to regain their form.
Keep in mind, Cliff Lee was 35 during his final excellent 162 with two summers remaining on his contract at $24 million per campaign. And Roy Halladay had two down years at $40 million total after age 34.
If Klentak signs Arrieta, almost 32, for $160 million over six seasons, he could break down after the first two or three. And he’d be 38 in his final 162. In other words, the red pinstripes might roughly eat $75 million to $100 million, and the locals would demand Klentak’s firing.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “Living at risk is jumping off the cliff and building your wings on the way down.” – Ray Bradbury
Calculating stats and dollars:
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The Chicago Cubs are willing to let Arrieta walk despite being a strong NL contender. Why else would they make a so-called mistake like this?
Maybe, his declining numbers are giving them pause.
Arrieta, almost 32:
- 2015: 33 Gms., 229 Inn., 22-6, a 1.77 ERA and a 7.2 fWAR.
- 2016: 31 Gms., 197 1/3 Inn., 18-8, a 3.10 ERA and a 3.8 fWAR.
- 2017: 33 Gms., 168 1/3 Inn., 14-10, a 3.53 ERA and a 2.4 fWAR.
- * ’17: 12 Gms., 67 Inn., 6-3 and a 2.28 ERA.
- * Second half stats are either a comeback or push for a big free-agent contract.
Next: Phillies: A trade matchup for a pitcher
Educated guess: The decision-making process involving money has cutoff points. Contracts up to $30 million is probably Klentak’s purview, and $80 million is most likely president Andy MacPhail’s limit. Over that, John S. Middleton and the other owners have the final say.
Yes, Klentak and MacPhail could sign off on Arrieta and pass the final decision upward, but they probably won’t.
Or ownership could initiate a conversation with the execs. Either way, when the Phillies make the “mistake” of not acquiring Arrieta, who should the fans blame? Middleton!