Philadelphia Phillies: 2018's many lineup questions

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Circling the bases at the Bank will be a familiar sight for Santana this summer. Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images. /

Because the new Phillies manager will rely heavily on analytics, the batting order will provide surprises and debate among fans, who will question many lineup decisions before, during, and after the game: win or lose.

Data leap:

With the new campaign approaching, general manager Matt Klentak of the Philadelphia Phillies is ahead of the curve by hiring skipper Gabe Kapler and his statistical approach. He believes the Phils’ numbers will reveal strengths to exploit and weaknesses to avoid, and he’ll study them for answers.

IN OTHER WORDS: “The greatest value of a picture is when it forces us to notice what we never expected to see.” – John Tukey

In the recent past, a regular lineup would have Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana batting fourth and fifth or third and fourth. Interchangeable parts. It would depend on the hot hitter, statistics, the opposing pitcher and/or other factors.

On the other hand, Kapler–some have said– is favoring the two hole for Santana. For instance, Mike Trout mostly batted second last season (63.7 percent). He slotted third otherwise.

On another Phillies site, Double D, a frequent poster, wondered about signing another first baseman and the lineup for ’18. Klentak didn’t have many choices for a left-handed bat, with power, to pair with Hoskins in the middle of the order. So, creativity ensued.

The bonus: Santana is a better fielder than Hoskins and a switch-hitter. Therefore, opposing moundsmen will have to pitch to Hoskins or Santana, and their managers will have the same problem in the late innings as well.

If, on the other hand, Kapler separates Santana and Hoskins in the lineup, what combinations would the skipper come up with? Well, examining each spot in the batting order reveals his basic choices.

In the leadoff role, Cesar Hernandez has averaged .294 for the last two summers with nearly an identical OBP: .371 in 2016 and .373 in 2017. So, Double D, Hernandez has handled the job; moreover, Santana only hit .233 with a .339 OBP atop the lineup.

Santana’s 571 at-bats in 2017 by hitting slot:

First: 150 AB for 26.3 percent.
Second: 0 AB.
Third: 14 AB for 2.5 percent.
Fourth: 97 AB for 17.0 percent.
Fifth: 111 AB for 19.4 percent.
Sixth: 167 AB for 29.3 percent.
Seventh: 31 AB for 5.4 percent.

Oddly enough, Kapler’s reported strategy to bat Santana second isn’t off base, but the first sacker didn’t hit there last year. And even though J.P. Crawford had a .356 OBP last season, he’ll still need a .250 average for that hole. In fact, either Nick Williams or Aaron Altherr could feast on the fastball-heavy two slot.

If Santana bats second, where does Hoskins hit? Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. /

Front-loaded power:

While Odubel Herrera is an excellent three-hole hitter during a prolonged hot streak, Hoskins could be more in Kapler’s plans to protect Santana. An order beginning with Hernandez, Santana, and Hoskins could provide first-inning fireworks with a lead to relax the starter. Kapler’s thinking?

Possibilities:

1: Hernandez or Santana
2: Altherr, Williams, Santana or Crawford
3: Herrera, Hoskins or Santana
4: Hoskins or Santana
5: Altherr, Williams or Franco
6: Franco, Williams or Altherr
7: Alfaro or Franco
8: Crawford or Alfaro

Since Kapler, Double D, will at times rely on some old-fashioned baseball, you can occasionally expect Santana and Hoskins in more traditional roles. They would bat 3-4 or 4-5 and drive in the top two or three hitters.

In the sixth spot, Maikel Franco won’t have the pressure to carry the team, and he should produce a higher average with 20-25 homers. But if he regains his early form, he could bat fifth but still behind Santana and Hoskins. Altherr or Williams, on the other hand, could slot sixth if Crawford has success hitting second.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess.” – Ronald Coase

The Phils are expecting offensive and defensive improvement from Alfaro this summer. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. /

Considerations aplenty:

Hitting seventh, Jorge Alfaro will work on improving his defense and supplying some power to a decent average. But if Franco struggles, he could drop to seventh and Alfaro could move up to sixth.

In the eight hole, Crawford could use walks to turn over the lineup and get sacrificed to second by the pitcher with less than two outs. Or Alfaro or Franco could drop down in the order if Crawford bats second behind Hernandez. Maybe, Double D, the rookie’s patience can foster a running game for Hernandez.

While only some within the Phillies organization know Kapler’s approach toward the lineup, writers and fans are in the dark. For instance, if Hernandez, Santana, and Hoskins are the first three hitters, where does that leave everyone else?

Possibilities:

1-3: Hernandez, Santana, and Hoskins.
4-6: Herrera, Williams, Altherr or Franco in no particular order.
7-9: Alfaro, Crawford and the pitcher

The benefit of Hernandez, Santana, and Hoskins atop the lineup will be to take an early lead and relax not only the hurlers but also the rest of the batting order. In other words, they’ll be more productive.

Will the lineup be Hernandez (SH), Santana (SH), Herrera (LH) and Hoskins (RH), or will Hoskins bat elsewhere? Yes, a big question!

Even if Crawford hits .250, Santana batting second could keep the rookie in the bottom third of the order. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no massive statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Plate-discipline comparison:

Phillies:

Hernandez: 18.0 K% and 10.6 BB%.
Herrera: 22.4 K% and 5.5 BB%.
Santana: 14.1 K% and 13.2 BB%.

Crawford:

Triple-A: 17.4 K% and 14.2 BB%.
Phillies: 25.3 K% and 18.4 BB%.

Hoskins:

Triple-A: 15.8 K% and 13.5 BB%.
Phillies: 21.7 K% and 17.5 BB%.

According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.

Rating	K%	BB%
Excellent	10.0%	15.0%
Great	12.5%	12.5%
Above Average	16.0%	10.0%
Average	20.0%	8.0%
Below Average	22.0%	7.0%
Poor	25.0%	5.5%
Awful	27.5%	4.0%