Phillies: 2018’s lineup questions
By Tal Venada
Because the new Phillies manager will rely heavily on analytics, the batting order will provide surprises and debate among fans, who will question many lineup decisions before, during, and after the game: win or lose.
Data leap:
With the new campaign approaching, general manager Matt Klentak of the Philadelphia Phillies is ahead of the curve by hiring skipper Gabe Kapler and his statistical approach. He believes the Phils’ numbers will reveal strengths to exploit and weaknesses to avoid, and he’ll study them for answers.
"IN OTHER WORDS: “The greatest value of a picture is when it forces us to notice what we never expected to see.” – John Tukey"
In the recent past, a regular lineup would have Rhys Hoskins and Carlos Santana batting fourth and fifth or third and fourth. Interchangeable parts. It would depend on the hot hitter, statistics, the opposing pitcher and/or other factors.
On the other hand, Kapler–some have said– is favoring the two hole for Santana. For instance, Mike Trout mostly batted second last season (63.7 percent). He slotted third otherwise.
On another Phillies site, Double D, a frequent poster, wondered about signing another first baseman and the lineup for ’18. Klentak didn’t have many choices for a left-handed bat, with power, to pair with Hoskins in the middle of the order. So, creativity ensued.
The bonus: Santana is a better fielder than Hoskins and a switch-hitter. Therefore, opposing moundsmen will have to pitch to Hoskins or Santana, and their managers will have the same problem in the late innings as well.
If, on the other hand, Kapler separates Santana and Hoskins in the lineup, what combinations would the skipper come up with? Well, examining each spot in the batting order reveals his basic choices.
In the leadoff role, Cesar Hernandez has averaged .294 for the last two summers with nearly an identical OBP: .371 in 2016 and .373 in 2017. So, Double D, Hernandez has handled the job; moreover, Santana only hit .233 with a .339 OBP atop the lineup.
Santana’s 571 at-bats in 2017 by hitting slot:
- First: 150 AB for 26.3 percent.
- Second: 0 AB.
- Third: 14 AB for 2.5 percent.
- Fourth: 97 AB for 17.0 percent.
- Fifth: 111 AB for 19.4 percent.
- Sixth: 167 AB for 29.3 percent.
- Seventh: 31 AB for 5.4 percent.
Oddly enough, Kapler’s reported strategy to bat Santana second isn’t off base, but the first sacker didn’t hit there last year. And even though J.P. Crawford had a .356 OBP last season, he’ll still need a .250 average for that hole. In fact, either Nick Williams or Aaron Altherr could feast on the fastball-heavy two slot.