MLB: Is a lockout destined for the 2021 season?
By David Hill
It has been a slow offseason for the vast majority of MLB free agents. Could the lack of free agency movement lead to a a possible labor stoppage in the future?
Since the disastrous work stoppage in 1994, MLB has enjoyed unprecedented labor peace. The Player’s Union and Commissioner’s Office have worked together to ensure that the game was all love has made its way on the diamond every year, a dramatic change from the contentious relationship that both sides had decades ago.
However, that may be changing. Free agency has been slow for many players, as teams scramble to get under the luxury tax threshold. Other teams are in outright tank mode, looking to follow the example set by the Astros, hoping that those brutal years will be worth it down the line. This is all adding up to a disaster for those players who are free agents, as they have not been able to get the contracts they were hoping for. If Buster Olney’s thoughts are to come true, this could be a perfect storm for a lockout in 2021 when the current labor deal ends.
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This is certainly an ominous prediction. However, while MLB has enjoyed labor peace over the past two decades, there are flaws with the current collective bargaining agreement. There may not be a salary cap per se, but the luxury tax threshold is prohibitive, especially as teams are looking ahead to the crop of free agents in the 2018 offseason. Likewise, while there is that de facto cap, the sport does not have a salary floor. This led to situations like the Astros having a team payroll that was less than what Alex Rodriguez was making for the year. Such an arrangement cannot work for the long term, especially in a sport where free agency is so vitally important.
In baseball, perhaps more than any other professional sport, the economic playing field is not close to even. Teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, and Red Sox essentially print their own money. Meanwhile, teams like the Rays and Marlins are perpetually stuck in small market hell. That is highly unlikely to change at any point in the near future.
Obviously, things need to change. The past few agreements have helped the sport become healthier, and has led to a good deal of parity. Yet, the way that teams have been able to find their way into contention has not been entirely to the way that the players would agree with.
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There has been unprecedented labor peace in baseball over the past few decades. That may change over the coming years.