2018 MLB Free agency rumors: January gems still out there

2 of 4

NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 25: Eduardo Nunez /

2018 MLB Free Agency rumors. With spring training fewer than six weeks away, there are plenty of good free agent hitters still available.

As the baseball offseason moves into January, it feels like this year’s hot stove couldn’t heat up a cup of coffee. There have been a few big moves, like the Giancarlo Stanton trade that will help relegate the Miami Marlins to 100-loss status, and the Shohei Ohtani signing that has helped push the Angels into wild card territory. With 2018 MLB Free Agency rumors buzzing, what is the next big move going to be?

Marcell Ozuna was a nice pickup for the Cardinals, and the Phillies added Carlos Santana to their up-and-coming core. Those were exciting additions that excited the blood of baseball fans a tish. So, yes, there have been some moves, but it feels like there haven’t been enough moves.

Baseball fans want more. We need more. We need some action. We crave it. We’re dying to know which teams J.D. Martinez or Eric Hosmer will sign with for 2018.

Who will take a chance on Jonathan Lucroy behind the dish? Will a team hunting for a third baseman choose Mike Moustakas or Todd Frazier? Does anyone but the Royals like Alcides Escobar and his career .294 on-base percentage?

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in about 40 days, and there are still plenty of good free agent players out there looking to sign. In fact, you could create a stable starting nine with the players still available.

Let’s take a look at these 2018 MLB Free Agency rumors, seeing who is available at each position, with their projected statistics from the Fangraphs Depth Charts and from Marcels at Baseball-Reference.

2018 MLB Free agency rumors: Catcher and First Base

C Jonathan Lucroy, 32 years old

416 PA, 46 R, 10 HR, 47 RBI, 2 SB, .268/.343/.420, 2.3 WAR—Fangraphs

495 PA, 56 R, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 3 SB, .268/.340/.427—Marcels

Lucroy has been a below average hitter in two of the last three seasons. Last year, he was well below average even after his hitting numbers were propped up by 27 games at Coors Field following a trade from Texas in late July. For the season, Lucroy hit .367/.485/.532 in 99 plate appearances in Colorado and .241/.309/.334 everywhere else.

Now, this explains why teams are wary of Lucroy, but if they trust the projection, they’re looking at an above average player. Even when he hasn’t hit, he’s been an asset on defense. His 2.3 WAR projection would be an improvement at the catcher position for a dozen teams, including a few who have playoff aspirations, like the Nationals, Rockies, and Diamondbacks.

1B Eric Hosmer, 28 years old
651 PA, 83 R, 27 HR, 94 RBI, 4 SB, .290/.360/.484, 2.8 WAR—Fangraphs
602 PA, 83 R, 22 HR, 87 RBI, 6 SB, .290/.357/.468—Marcels

2018 MLB Free Agency rumors are flying around about Eric Hosmer recently, with the Padres and Cardinals showing interest in the first baseman. According to USA Today, the Padres have made an offer to Hosmer that would make him the highest-paid player in franchise history (7-years, $140 million). There’s also a chance he returns to Kansas City, where he played the first seven years of his big league career and reportedly offered a 7-year, $147 million contract.

The San Diego #Padres have offered Eric Hosmer a 7-year,$140 million contract but look who’s pulling out all stops to keep him? The #Royals who are offering even more. https://t.co/AIh5ZBTCsI via @USATODAY
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) January 3, 2018

Like Lucroy, Hosmer has had an up and down career. Over the last five years, his WAR has bounced from 3.2 to 0.0 to 3.5 to -0.1 to 4.1. Like Forrest Gump’s famous box of chocolates, with Eric Hosmer “you never know what you gonna get.” He comes with considerable risk as a long-term, high-cost signing.

2018 MLB Free agency rumors: Second Base, Shortstop, and Third Base

2B Neil Walker, 32 years old
595 PA, 74 R, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 3 SB, .270/.347/.457, 2.6 WAR—Fangraphs
470 PA, 58 R, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .265/.340/.443—Marcels

Walker has been linked this offseason to the three teams he’s already played for, the Pirates, Mets, and Brewers. He must be a good clubhouse guy if the three teams that have had him already are interested in bringing him back. He’s also younger than fellow free agent second basemen Brandon Phillips (37 years old) and Howie Kendrick (34 years old). Although to be fair, Kendrick doesn’t play second base much anymore.

The Fangraphs projection above has Walker with 595 plate appearances, which might be a bit steep considering he’s been in the 450-range the last two seasons and isn’t getting any younger. At the 470 plate appearances projected by Marcels, Walker would be roughly league average (2.0 WAR).

That would still be at least one win better than what the Yankees, Diamondbacks, and Brewers currently have at second base, based on the Fangraphs projected WAR for second basemen.

SS Eduardo Nunez, 31 years old

490 PA, 60 R, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 20 SB, .288/.327/.442, 1.8 WAR—Fangraphs

505 PA, 62 R, 14 HR, 58 RBI, 24 SB, .288/.331/.444—Marcels

Nunez would be stretched playing shortstop for a significant amount of time. He only played 16 games there last year and never has played more than 75 games at the spot in a season. A team would be better off using him in the Ben Zobrist role from a few years ago when Zobrist played shortstop, second base, and the outfield. Nunez played those spots plus third base with the Red Sox last year.

As far as true shortstops go, the pickings are sparse. Alcides Escobar doesn’t have the defensive chops he once had and has never been much of a hitter, but he’s younger than Erick Aybar or J.J. Hardy, and he can still play every day. Unfortunately, he’s been barely above replacement level the last two seasons (0.5 WAR in 2016 and 2017).

3B Mike Moustakas, 29 years old
560 PA, 75 R, 30 HR, 82 RBI, 2 SB, .266/.326/.498, 2.7 WAR—Fangraphs
510 PA, 63 R, 26 HR, 69 RBI, 1 SB, .269/.325/.494—Marcels

Moustakas failed to live up to the hype in his first four big league seasons but has been an above-average hitter in each of the last three years. He’s coming off his best power year (38 homers, 85 RBI) and is three years younger than his main free agent rival at third base, Todd Frazier. One of the highlights of last season was when Moustakas broke the Royals single-season home run record previously held by Steve “Bye Bye” Balboni.

That being said, there’s not much difference between Moustakas (2.7 WAR) and Frazier (2.4 WAR) according to Fangraphs and Frazier could be had on a shorter and cheaper contract. The Yankees could improve their outlook by about a win by signing either player, but they are committed to staying under the $197 million threshold so they can reset their luxury tax penalty clock.

DETROIT, MI – SEPTEMBER 4: Lorenzo Cain /

2018 MLB Free agency rumors: Outfield

OF Lorenzo Cain, 32 years old
595 PA, 74 R, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 16 SB, .288/.347/.438, 3.2 WAR—Fangraphs
566 PA, 79 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI, 20 SB, .289/.350/.439—Marcels

With all of the hype on J.D. Martinez, it might surprise many baseball fans to see Cain projected to be a more valuable player. The big difference, of course, is their defense. Cain doesn’t have the elite fielding numbers he had a few years ago, but he can still handle the position. He’s also projected to be an above-average hitter and add value through base running.

His 3.2 WAR projection would make him a top-10 center fielder and would be a significant improvement on the San Francisco Giants center field situation. Fangraphs has Gorkys Hernandez and Steven Duggar getting the bulk of the playing time in center field for the Giants. They are projected for a combined 0.4 WAR. Cain could be three wins better than that.

OF J.D. Martinez, 30 years old
630 PA, 89 R, 38 HR, 106 RBI, 3 SB, .277/.350/.545, 2.7 WAR—Fangraphs
496 PA, 73 R, 31 HR, 81 RBI, 3 SB, .290/.358/.570—Marcels

Martinez had a monster run of hitting after joining the Diamondbacks last season, hitting .302/.366/.741, with 29 homers in 62 games. He’s the best power bat out there and will get paid accordingly. That being said, there is a risk here.

Fangraphs is projecting 630 plate appearances for Martinez. He’s done that once in his seven-year career. He’s played nearly120 games in each of the last two seasons, which is why Marcels has a more modest playing time projection. He’s also been one of the worst right fielders in baseball defensively the last two years and is a negative on the bases.

"I know one thing, they need J.D. Martinez's bat in the middle of that lineup." - @KMillar15 #IntentionalTalk pic.twitter.com/2u2ZbyLEPH
— Intentional Talk (@IntentionalTalk) January 2, 2018

More from Call to the Pen

Despite his flaws, Martinez has reportedly been offered a five-year contract by the Red Sox. Super agent Scott Boras went into the offseason looking $200 million for Martinez, but that doesn’t seem likely in a five-year deal.

Martinez won’t be a $40 million player, but something in the range of $25-$28 million per year isn’t out of the question.

OF Jarrod Dyson, 33 years old
455 PA, 49 R, 6 HR, 43 RBI, 29 SB, .262/.329/.371, 1.7 WAR—Fangraphs
429 PA, 58 R, 6 HR, 37 RBI, 28 SB, .255/.323/.371—Marcels

Dyson has never been a league average hitter, but his glove and baserunning provide value to any team he’s on. Over the last two years, his defense in centerfield has been comparable to the Reds’ Billy Hamilton. With elite defensive skills, Dyson has regularly been at least a league average player despite never having more than 400 plate appearances.

Next: Fantasy Baseball: Stash these AL young guns in 2018

The Giants are projected for 28^th in WAR at center field among the 30 MLB teams. Jarrod Dyson would be a cheaper alternative to Lorenzo Cain, should the Giants want to upgrade from Gorkys Hernandez or Steven Duggar. If they plan to contend in the NL West, they should be looking at Cain or Dyson.

All of these 2018 MLB Free agency rumors are making us ready for the 2018 MLB season. Are you ready?

Home / MLB News