Why the New York Yankees won’t win the Yu Darvish sweepstakes
Teams gave Yu Darvish their initial interest early in the postseason, expressing their best offers for the Japanese star pitcher. The New York Yankees are still in the mix, but they won’t end up with him by next season.
Although the New York Yankees already possess an entire starting rotation, they are still looking for one last piece. While they already have some high-quality pitchers, they want a top-tier starter.
Yu Darvish is the primary target, according to several sources throughout the offseason. New York inquired other pitchers as well, but thus far no deals occurred.
The hot stove continues to burn, and the Japanese superstar is still the best asset on the market. Some teams reached out to him thus far, including the Astros and Twins.
He is still available, searching for the perfect combination of years and money guaranteed. He undoubtedly won’t become the highest-paid pitcher in history, but he will even likely make $20-something million.
Darvish would put the Yankees in prime position as a contender. A few bookmakers pushed them into the top spot for the upcoming season. However, the Dodgers are still the favorites in Las Vegas.
But even without him, New York remains one of the American League’s best teams, headed by one of the best offenses in the game. Only Houston scored more runs than the new “Bronx Bombers.”
Westgate LV SuperBook moves Yankees odds to win World Series from 8-1 to 6-1. The Dodgers remain the favorites at 9-2.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 9, 2017
Ultimately, Darvish carries a lot of weight for just any team willing to sign him. But several questions surround him after facing a rough postseason in 2017, as well as injury issues throughout his career.
Yankees fans go back-and-forth when discussing the situation with Darvish. However, unless everything goes in the club’s favor, New York won’t have the ace pitcher during the upcoming season.
Darvish isn’t worth the greenbacks
C.C. Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka both earned more than $20 million last season alone. If the Yankees sign Darvish, the contract will likely be worth that much per season, if not more.
Nine of the league’s pitchers currently rank among the list of the league’s 20 highest-paid players, all at more than $20 million a season. New York signed massive contracts before, but mostly to position players.
If they stay dialed in on Darvish, he could request between $20 and $25 million. Just four starting pitchers earned more than that in 2017. Two pitched during the World Series. The other two were virtually worthless.
That’s what makes a significant, lengthy contract a risk most teams won’t take. While Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw put up worthwhile numbers last year, guys like David Price and Felix Hernandez didn’t deserve nearly as much as they received.
Price’s contract, thus far, looks like an obscene mark on the Red Sox’s payroll. Injuries limited the left-hander to just 74 2/3 innings last season, as he attempted to rebound from a subpar 2016 campaign – based on Price’s standards. If the southpaw bounces back this year, maybe he’ll be worth the $30 million he earns.
Hernandez is a different story because he’s been in Seattle for his entire career. He also signed his deal in 2013, when he was still a beast on the bump. Now he’s in the final years of the contract and a mid-tier starter at best, based on his 4.01 ERA across the previous two years.
No Cy Young winner from the past two seasons ranks among this group of guys. Thus, a player’s price doesn’t guarantee an elite season or stint with any team.
Hence, if Darvish wants a contract like that of Masahiro Tanaka, the Yankees will take a hard pass. His career 3.42 ERA and 11 K/9 rate look appealing. And he may well be worth $25 million a year. But it is too risky of a move at this time.
And New York doesn’t have enough cap space to fulfill a massive contract like that anyways. That could change if Cashman can deal Jacoby Ellsbury or some other players.
As of now, it’s not likely.
The Yankees don’t need a starting pitcher….yet
A top-flight pitcher became the team’s primary focus this offseason once the club traded for Giancarlo Stanton. Some analysts and fans agree that it’s not a necessity.
New York owned the fifth-best staff in 2017, based on its 3.72 ERA. Starters combined for a slightly higher 3.98 ERA, but still ranked in the top five overall.
Cashman felt the team needed starting pitchers throughout last season, hence why he acquired Sonny Gray and Jaime Garcia. Now, with six capable starting hurlers, there is no need to spend boo-koo bucks on a free agent.
Tanaka and Luis Severino pack a solid one-two punch at the head of the rotation. Gray seems overrated based on his career numbers, but his ERA is just .03 points lower than Darvish’s – Gray has pitched 62 fewer innings.
Still, Gray and Jordan Montgomery, a hidden gem, will be more than just inning-eaters in the back end. Then there’s Sabathia, who had a productive season in 2017 despite posting a low strikeout rate and higher walk rate than normal.
Darvish’s playoff performance may deter the Yankees from offering a bloated contract. Granted, nearly every pitcher in the World Series struggled in the seven games. But Darvish looked horrible.
Dodgers fans blamed the starter for floundering on the bump in Game 3 and Game 7 when the stakes were high. In just 3 1/3 innings, the right-hander yielded eight earned runs. Whether he tipped pitches or not, he was unimpressive.
New York needs a pitcher that can make an impact during more than just the regular season. Darvish shouldn’t be shunned for his poor playoff outings across the past two seasons. But for a club that already has a handful of decent pitchers and an excellent bullpen, it matters.
The Yankees don’t need an ace for the postseason. If anything, they can run a three- or four-man rotation. Boasting one of the best bullpens in the league helps too.
New York has too many other options
Few mind-blowing moves occurred throughout December. Several of the marquee free agents are unsigned. Teams multiple players on the trade block as well, which makes a difference.
Either way, it means that New York isn’t in a Darvish-or-bust situation.
If starters get hurt early in the year, the Yankees still have other options in their organization. Chad Green, who was one of the league’s best relievers last year, could extend his innings intake. Cashman noted that Green would enter Spring Training as a starter.
Chance Adams could be the next pitching prospect called up, as he was on the cusp of a big-league appearance most of last season. Justus Sheffield, another bright spot in the farm, might be an option by the end of the summer.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Rumors linked New York to other free agents and players on the trade block. Patrick Corbin and Gerrit Cole are the two primary targets mentioned, but even Michael Fulmer and Alex Cobb are reasonable options.
By acquiring a less-talented arm, the Yankees can retain their best prospects and same money for the upcoming free agent classes.
Corbin could be the most logical option because he only has one year left on his contract, thus if he performs poorly, they can just dump him in the offseason. A deal for Cole wouldn’t be worth it if the front office has to include top prospects.
If New York must include prospects to add another top-tier pitcher, Fulmer is the better option. Cobb hasn’t received much interest from the Yankees as of late but could be a late steal if he remains team-less.
Darvish will find a way to receive a massive contract for a talented contending team. New York has a variety of other avenues it can take to return to the World Series for the first time since 2009.
Next: Yanks are chasing Manny Machado again
Ultimately, while Darvish would improve the Yankees’ chances of returning to the Fall Classic, they don’t need him to succeed. And with a brilliant farm system and loaded 2018 free agent class, saving money might be the more rational option at this point.
Thus, it seems that Darvish could be pitching against New York, rather than for it, in 2018.