Phillies have a strong plan B
Regarding the Phillies’ rotation for the upcoming season, some fans are experiencing impatience, confusion, hopelessness and/or nervousness due to being in the dark; but, firstly, general manager Matt Klentak won’t sign any free agent for any dollar amount or an unlimited number of campaigns.
Alternative tactic:
While the Philadelphia Phillies need a two-slot starter behind Aaron Nola, they don’t want the albatross of a back-loaded contract with two or three years of bad money. However, because this offseason’s market only had a few opportunities for a dependable hurler in his late 20s, Klentak acquired arms to relieve some pressure on his five-man staff.
IN OTHER WORDS: “You’ve always got to have a plan B. You’ve got to be able to shift gears and find a new course of action.” – Joe Teti
When the Phils ended 2017, the biggest hole in the active roster was a solid rotation arm, preferably a lefty. But the challenge for Klentak is still a moundsman with three to five good years ahead of him, not behind him.
On the market, the specific target for the red pinstripes is also of interest to 29 other franchises, and overpaying might be the best option. Translation: Do you feel lucky?
Owners have finally realized the price tags will drop in January because the pressure will also be on the available players and their agents. On the other hand, execs probably want to limit the projected cost of $300 million or more for 2019’s premier free agents.
Regarding free agents, the faithful are eyeing the top two starters–who are 31 and 32–but Klentak must weigh the entire commitment, not just the first summer. And even if the dollars are the same annually on a $120 million deal over five seasons, the risk of losing $72 million for the final three equals the GM’s unemployment.
On the second tier, the two hurlers are 30 and 31 with a price tag of $14 million to $19 million per annum for four seasons. Less risk, less reward. But if the cost comes down to the above four possibilities, Klentak might have interest if he still has a need.
On the trade front, the starters on the Tampa Bay Rays, the Kansas City Royals and the Pittsburgh Pirates have asking-prices involving top prospects. They want to rebuild, but many interested GMs are reluctant to part with their most talented youngsters.
While the hometown nine need a left-handed starter or, at least, a reliable two-slot pitcher, they also want someone under 30 but will probably end up empty-handed. However, other organizations in a similar situation have employed a successful strategy to lower the pressure on a challenged rotation.
Limited options:
Behind the front-office doors, the multifaceted staff is probably eyeing some other options we’ll never know about. But while two candidates have landed elsewhere, a third just became an improbable acquisition.
Signed by the Chicago Cubs, Tyler Chatwood was worth overpaying for. He is in his late 20s with a mid-90’s fastball and decent numbers away from Coors Field. However, one baseball site predicted $20 million for three campaigns, and the estimate there was $32 million for four years. He received $38 million for three summers.
Although he was a long shot, Shohei Ohtani had the opportunity to pitch, hit, and field for the Phillies. But he selected an American League club (the DH rule) on the west coast near the beach.
To re-up their first baseman for $20 million per 162, Kansas City moved a $9 million reliever to lower their payroll to $94 million with the 2018 goal to be under $120 million. So, the Royals might keep southpaw Danny Duffy unless they receive a lopsided offer.
On Phillies sites regarding Pat Neshek, some had the impression bringing him back after the trade was puzzling. In other words, some believe organizations deal players primarily due to dissatisfaction. Meanwhile, another fan stated Neshek had only wanted to be on a contender.
With a different take, one local felt the Phils are going from bad to worse. And he’ll have to follow another club despite being a Philly fan for a long time. Yeah, and when the hometown nine notch some wins, he’ll forget ever doubting them.
Competitive formula:
Because of the shortage of quality starting pitchers, franchises like the New York Yankees have strengthened the final three frames with one-inning hurlers. General manager Brian Cashman’s relief corps was Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller, and Aroldis Chapman.
By limiting the rotation arms to five or six frames, the Yankees had a decent chance for victories. In other words, if you have enough offensive production and get quality starts from your moundsmen (six innings with three earned runs), the object is to be in it with the game literally in your relievers’ hands.
Yes, other clubs have employed this strategy to compensate for a weak five-man staff. But Cashman is the best example of this approach.
With the Phillies, the expectation is for Nola to fire seven frames, while they also get outings of five or six innings from the rest. And, yes, unless they acquire a starter, the red pinstripes have nine other hurlers to compete for those four spots.
Planning for two years, Klentak inked two additional relievers through ’19. And if the team is .500 or better, neither will be on the market in July without a high asking price because the locals will be ready to contend in 2019.
Unfortunately, many of the faithful fall for the illusion of failure if a reliever has an occasional bad outing or an inflated ERA due to one poor performance. But keep in mind, the expectation is four acceptable appearances out of every five, while a top closer’s success rate is 90 percent.
ONLY YOU: “Damn these human beings; if I had invented them, I would go hide my head in a bag.” – Mark Twain
Five setup pieces:
In the seventh inning, Adam Morgan is the top option because he only allowed two earned runs for August and September until the three in his last outing. He threw 26 frames before that for a 0.69 ERA with a 95- to-97-mph heater and a devastating 82- to-84-mph slider he had finally developed.
Phillies:
- Morgan: Final 21 Gms., 26 2/3 Inn. and a 1.69 ERA.
- Ramos (2nd half): 24 Gms., 26 2/3 Inn. and a 2.70 ERA.
- Neris (2nd half): 35 Gms., 36 1/3 Inn., a 2.70 ERA and 19 for 19 save chances.
Neshek:
- Phillies: 43 Gms., 40 1/3 Inn., a 1.12 ERA and 10 Holds.
Even though he can only work consecutive days occasionally, Neshek’s unorthodox delivery and his 84-mph slider led to a string of scoreless performances. Hitters have difficulty adjusting to his approach after facing most hurlers.
Regarding Edubray Ramos, he has the mid-90’s smoke of a ninth-inning fireman, and he also had success with his 84-mph slider. In fact, his second above-average pitch was the improvement management wanted after last June’s demotion to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
As for the three-out bridge to Hector Neris, Luis Garcia has impressed his new skipper with his 84-mph changeup and 97-mph fastball to keep batters off-balance. So, when Kapler praised Garcia, it indicated the reliever would probably be the top eighth-inning weapon on Opening Day.
Sharing the eighth with Garcia, right-hander Tommy Hunter has a four-pitch arsenal. He has a 94-mph cutter, an 84-mph curveball, a 96-mph two-seamer and an upper-90’s four-seamer.
Top to bottom:
Besides the five setup men, Hoby Milner is the lefty specialist, and he’ll also stay sharp with some work in the sixth if a starter falters. But one drawback in this blueprint is no long man if the Phillies carry 12 pitchers and 13 position players.
Compensating for the starting staff, the seven relievers are a left-handed specialist, a closer, and five setup men. So, the six moundsmen for the last nine outs will shoulder the weight for victory.
While many fans are unhappy with Neris as the closer, this probably will not change even if he saves his first 30 opportunities. In fact, if 10 chances are less than perfect due to a one-out walk or a two-out single, the nervous Nellies will complain.
In the first half, Neris had three blown saves out of 10 tries. And when he takes the mound for the final three outs during April, many locals will anticipate failure. That stated, he saved all 19 opportunities after the All-Star break, but unfortunately, the fans’ trust could be beyond repair.
Neris:
- Second half: 35 Gms., 36 1/3 Inn., a 2.70 ERA and 19 for 19 save chances.
Neris got the job done in the second half, although he gave you “heartburn” frequently. And while a success rate of 90 percent is excellent for a ninth-frame arm, Neris had 26 saves out of 29 attempts: 89.7 percent for the season. Expect more adventures!
The Numerical Bible:
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This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies:
- Neris, 28.5: 74 Gms., 74 2/3 Inn., 26 Saves, 3 BS, 4 Holds, a 3.01 ERA, a 3.71 FIP, a 4.21 xFIP, a 3.53 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
- Garcia, almost 31: 66 Gms., 71 1/3 Inn., 14 Holds, 2 Saves, a 2.65 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, a 3.89 xFIP, a 3.90 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.
- Morgan, 27.5: 37 Gms., 54 2/3 Inn., 6 Holds, a 4.12 ERA, a 4.22 FIP, a 3.47 xFIP, a 3.30 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
- Ramos, 25: 59 Gms., 57 2/3 Inn., 9 Holds, a 4.21 ERA, a 2.91 FIP, a 3.68 xFIP, a 3.55 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.47 WHIP.
- Milner, almost 27: 37 Gms., 31 1/3 Inn., 7 Holds, a 2.01 ERA, a 4.50 FIP, a 5.54 xFIP, a 5.13 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.47 WHIP.
Next: Phillies: 2018's many lineup questions
- Hunter, 31.5: 61 Gms., 58 2/3 Inn., 25 Holds, a 2.61 ERA, a 3.07 FIP, a 3.29 xFIP, a 3.07 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 0.97 WHIP.
- Neshek, 37: 71 Gms., 62 1/3 Inn., 23 Holds, a 1.59 ERA, a 1.86 FIP, a 3.26 xFIP, a 2.70 SIERA, a 2.5 fWAR and a 0.87 WHIP.