Making the Atlanta Braves contenders with $35 million
Currently, the payroll of the Atlanta Braves is sitting around ~$100 million. Based off of last year’s total payroll number of $135 million, there’s still about $35 million that can safely be spent this offseason.
The Atlanta Braves aren’t contenders…yet. However, they can be, and there’s room on the books to do so. If used correctly, the available $35 million can make a world of difference, and this is especially true when trades are also a factor.
While I believe that the Braves could (and eventually will) afford a payroll of around $150 million, that cannot be assumed, so for our purposes here, payroll assumption will not exceed $135 million.
Now, $35 million is a good bit of money, but taking that money and using it to make the Atlanta Braves contenders requires a savvy approach. Cutting corners through signing several cheap, decent players, or crafting trades to save a few extra dollars. Personally, I wouldn’t want Atlanta to take the discount route, as those guys don’t always pan out.
With payroll-oriented trades, though, come hurt feelings. Occasionally, a guy that the fans love will wind up being more valuable to the front office as a trade piece than as a roster piece, and this is perfectly okay.
Fans tend to overreact when an exceptionally likable player is traded away, and they fail to realize that the return of the trade could have a greater impact on the team than the player that was traded away ever could.
This wasn’t the case with Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel. Austin Riley wound up being drafted by the Atlanta Braves thanks to the Kimbrel trade, so that trade may become a minor victory if he pans out as expected, but it’s possible that a fan-favorite could be traded in a deal that does benefit the team.
Without further ado, let’s dive into a couple of trades that could create a bit more payroll wiggle room and improve the MLB roster at the same time.
Make it HAPPen, Captain.
Like I said, some trades hurt, but they’re worth it in the end, and that’s true with this first trade proposal. Before lashing out at the seemingly foolish nature of the deal, think about how it could benefit the team, as opposed to what the team would be giving up.
Here’s the first proposal:
Nick Markakis, Julio Teheran, Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller & $5 million to the Chicago Cubs for Ian Happ and Javier Baez
The key to this deal is that the Braves are paying about half of Nick Markakis‘ salary in 2018. If the Cubs were to be stuck paying all of Markakis’ $10.5 million salary, they wouldn’t be as inclined to give Atlanta something of value in return.
In total, this trade would save the Braves about $12.5 million, increasing their potential offseason spending number to $42.5 million.
I’ve been super high on Ian Happ for a while now, and I can’t stress enough how well he would perform in an Atlanta Braves uniform. As if being a switch-hitter wasn’t enticing enough, Happ hit 19 of his 24 home runs from the left side of the plate, and SunTrust Park favors potent left-handed bats.
Happ has six years of control and could be the final piece of an outfield, along with Ender Inciarte and Ronald Acuña, that would be locked down for at least five years,
As for Javier Baez, he fills the temporary hole at third base, and once Austin Riley arrives, he could serve as the super-utility guy that many fans think Johan Camargo is going to be. Together, he and Happ would add just the right amount of pop to Atlanta’s lineup.
Giving up Julio Teheran is something many fans are bent on for quite some time. He’s had his ups and downs with the Atlanta Braves, but ultimately, his extremely team-friendly contract along with his potential to be a substantial number two or three starter makes him more valuable in a trade than on the roster.
Trading Markakis is self-explanatory, and Ian Anderson and Kyle Muller help balance out the deal, with Happ and Baez carrying a good bit of value. Anderson and Muller are a pair of prospects that will be in their age-20 seasons in 2018, and still, have a bit to prove.
Anderson still needs to fill out his six-foot-three frame, and Muller requires a bit more experience before his performance is accurately critiqued. However, a lack of experience does not mean that these prospects do not have upside.
The next trade proposal is a little easier to stomach, but I’m sure fans will still find a reason to be upset with it.
Mike Foltynewicz, Johan Camargo, Joey Wentz, & Alex Jackson to the Tampa Bay Rays for Chris Archer
The main thing the Atlanta Braves need in order to contend is a solid starting rotation. A great offense means nothing if starters are routinely giving up five and six runs per game. The Braves need an upgrade, especially if Julio Teheran is dealt.
It’s time to go after Chris Archer:
This deal might get Chris Archer. It’s a bit of a stretch, but if his slight drop-off in performance over the last two seasons is any indication, then his value may have tanked ever so slightly, but enough so that he can be acquired without giving up multiple top arms.
There is no more “year of the Folty.” Mike Foltynewicz doesn’t have another chance to prove himself before the Braves give up on him. 2018 is his make-or-break season, and given his track record, I’d rather not let him spend it in Atlanta. Sure, he’s talented, but he hasn’t shown that his talent translates into being a successful MLB starter. Perhaps a change of scenery is what he needs.
This doesn’t mean, however, that Foltynewicz doesn’t have value on the trade market. He’s under control through the 2020 season, and if he doesn’t work out as a starter next season, he would be a great addition to Tampa Bay’s bullpen. Folty could be one of the most versatile relievers in the game if he can keep his temper under control in high-leverage situations.
Fans may get sick to their stomach at the thought of trading away Johan Camargo, but hypothetically speaking, this deal would happen after the Braves acquire Happ and Baez from the Cubs, so losing Camargo wouldn’t be so bad after all. He built some value as he showed out at the MLB level in 2017, and I think he’s a tremendous sell-high candidate because his numbers don’t seem sustainable to me.
Losing Alex Jackson hurts, and losing Joey Wentz hurts even more, but if the return is Chris Archer, then I’m all for it. Jackson has shown power in the minor leagues and had a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League against some of baseball’s best prospects.
Joey Wentz, on the other hand, has been dominant so far in his brief minor league career, posting a 2.87 ERA through 175.2 innings so far, and he projects to be as good as Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka. Wentz is essentially the centerpiece of this deal, and if the Rays value him as much as the Braves do, he should be instrumental in landing Chris Archer.
This trade would cost the Braves roughly $3 million regarding 2018 payroll obligations, bringing the potential offseason spending total back down to $39.5 million, and this is where the free agent signings begin.
Sign three free agent pitchers: Lance Lynn, Greg Holland, and Peter Moylan
With just under $40 million to spend (again, hypothetically speaking, of course) and down a starting pitcher, the Atlanta Braves would be in a position to snatch a few arms off of the free agent market, assuming they’re still available following the deals made in my wonderful fantasy world.
The key element to the Braves’ rebuild has been pitching depth, but even with all the arms in the minor leagues, there’s no guarantee that even half of them will pan out. The Braves need to have experienced guys to fall back on in case things don’t go quite as planned, and this group would get the job done, and then some.
Lance Lynn:
There are several questions surrounding Lance Lynn. He fell off a bit in 2017 after coming back from Tommy John surgery, but I’m confident that he will bounce back in 2018, and the fact that his numbers dipped following his surgery means that he could potentially sign for less than he’s worth.
If the Braves were to strike a deal with the 30-year-old, I could see it being a three-year, $45 million contract at $15 million per year. Before his surgery, Lance Lynn was one of the more reliable starting pitchers in the league, and I’m expecting him to come back to form after what was an odd 2017 season where he posted a career-worst 3.8 walks per nine innings.
Following this deal, the Braves would be left with about $25 million to spend, which would then direct them towards bullpen options.
Greg Holland & Peter Moylan:
According to MLBTradeRumors.com, both Greg Holland and Peter Moylan have been connected to the Braves this offseason, which is excellent. Atlanta’s bullpen struggled mightily during parts of the 2017 season, and a pair of veteran arms would help solidify the ‘pen.
Holland posted a 3.61 ERA in 2017 and held opposing hitters to just a .193 batting average. That’s impressive alone, but the fact that he did so while pitching at Coors Field 30 times makes me want to do unspeakable things to get him in an Atlanta Braves uniform. If he can pitch well at Coors, he can dominate at SunTrust Park.
Greg Holland is a Scott Boras client, so Atlanta would likely have to shell out a few extra bucks to get him, but I could see the 32-year-old inking a three-year, $40 million deal, making $13 million in 2018 and 2019, and then $14 million in 2020.
Peter Moylan is getting old, but lifelong Atlanta Braves fans would love this signing. A one-year, $8 million deal for the 39-year-old righty doesn’t sound too bad, considering he led all relievers in appearances with 79 (59.1 IP).
The most attractive stat of Moylan’s in 2017 is the .161/.244/.236 slash line right-handed batters put up against him in 193 plate appearances. If he can repeat this feat, he’d be well worth spending $8 million.
Possible 2018 Atlanta Braves roster
After making all of these moves, here’s how the Atlanta Braves’ Opening Day 25-man roster would look:
Lineup:
- Ender Inciarte – CF
- Ozzie Albies – 2B
- Freddie Freeman – 1B
- Ian Happ – LF
- Javier Baez – 3B
- Ronald Acuña – RF
- Tyler Flowers – C
- Dansby Swanson – SS
- Pitcher
Bench:
Charlie Culberson – UTIL
Lane Adams – OF
Kurt Suzuki – C
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Rotation:
- Chris Archer
- Lance Lynn
- Sean Newcomb
- Brandon McCarthy
- Luiz Gohara
Bullpen:
Peter Moylan – RHP situational
Lucas Sims – RHP long relief
Max Fried – LHP long relief
Sam Freeman – LHP middle-innings
Jose Ramirez – RHP middle-innings
Arodys Vizcaino – RHP SU/middle-innings
A.J. Minter – LHP SU/middle-innings
Greg Holland – RHP CL
This roster certainly has the makings of at least a Wild Card contender, but if the young guys like Sean Newcomb, Luiz Gohara, and A.J. Minter have taken bigger steps than expected, the Braves could give the Nationals a run for their money in the NL East.
Next: Why the Yankees won't get Darvish
It’s a far-fetched idea, but we saw the Twins go from worst-to-first in 2017, so anything is possible.