Braves Rumors: Todd Frazier to Atlanta, please

Braves Rumors: The Atlanta Braves should go all in on The Todd Father

You have probably noticed the MLB offseason is moving at a glacial pace. Accordingly, there is a bevy of free agents still looking for homes. Recently, Atlanta Braves rumors have surfaced on a player the Braves should aggressively pursue. 

Among these free agents is third baseman Todd Frazier.  The slugger spent most of 2017 with the White Sox, then was traded to the Yankees for their ALCS run.  With the offseason trudging along, Frazier is six weeks from reporting to Spring Training, with no team to report for in 2018.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves are still weighing their options at the hot corner.  No less than nine men saw time at third for the Braves in 2017, including first baseman Freddie Freeman.  Johan Camargo is the most attractive internal option, but he is best suited as a middle infielder or utility player.  Rio Ruiz has scuffled in every opportunity to establish himself.  Adonis Garcia will allegedly spend 2018 playing in Korea, though that’s not official yet.  

Danny Santana is the only other current Brave who saw time at third in 2017, and his odds of being considered for a reprisal are, quite frankly, not good.

Austin Riley, the Braves’ top third-base prospect, is at least a year away from a regular starting job.  Even after the strides he made in 2017, there is no guarantee he will continue his torrid ascent.

Putting the present on hold to usher in the future (i.e., waiting for Riley) is an exercise in folly.  The Braves should make The Todd Father an offer he can’t refuse.

According to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden in this piece, the Braves are already considering doing so.

The Braves do not have interest in Moustakas and instead are focusing on stop-gap third basemen like free agents Todd Frazier and Eduardo Nunez as they wait for top prospect Austin Riley to arrive.

Atlanta has already taken strides to improve their roster this offseason, notably the crafty Matt Kemp deal.  This deal certainly beefed up the Braves’ payroll for 2018, but there is still a decent amount of wiggle room.  The Braves have $26.5MM to spend if Opening Day payroll is consistent with 2017 (currently sitting at $99.5M).

Even if LM decides to stand pat, there is still room for Frazier in the budget.  Let’s take a look.

Braves rumors: Establishing Value

Frazier, a two-time All-Star, would allow the Braves to lock down third with a reliable option that won’t break the bank.  Along with Mike Moustakas, he stands as the most attractive third base free agent on the market.  Considering the amount of money Moustakas is apt to make, Frazier is a better value.

Also, based on his 2017 season, he is not exactly a buy-low candidate, but the Braves might be able to buy lower than his actual market value.  MLB Trade Rumors projected Frazier to sign a three-year, $33M deal, which is well within the realm of possibility.  With Spring Training looming, he might be amenable to a slightly lower AAV (average annual value) if it means just getting a deal done.

Despite his .213 BA in 2017 (with a career-low .226 BABIP), he still posted a .344 OBP thanks to his lofty 14.4% walk rate and 14 HBP.  His 27 home runs and 19 doubles helped him to a .428 slugging percentage.  This was 31 points below his career average, and this figure could stabilize in 2018.

All of this swirled together to give him a 3.4 bWAR.  

His strikeouts were precisely on par with this career 21.7% rate, which isn’t bad for a guy with his power.  

When digging deeper into Frazier’s 2017 season, it shows his plate discipline took a significant step forward.  He swung at 40.2% of the pitches he saw, which is light years better than his previous career-best of 46.7%; this indicates heightened selectivity.  He swung at less at pitches in the zone (60.2%) but made more contact when he did swing (82.2%).  Also, he posted career-best metrics on contact on pitches outside the zone (67.1%).  His 9.3% swinging-strike percent was even the best of his career. 

For a guy who’s known as a free swinger, those are notable improvements worth building on.  A season with Kevin Seitzer could get his average to a friendlier place.

Frazier also grades out positively on defense, with 10 Defensive Runs Saved at third in 2017.  Alex Anthopoulos has declared emphasis on defense, which bodes well for Frazier.  He also can serve as the de facto backup for Freeman at first, should anything happen (God forbid).