6. Dane Dunning, RHP
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/20/1994 (23)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Kannapolis Intimidators, high-A Winston-Salem Dash
2017 Stats: 26 GS, 144 IP, 2.94 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.3% BB, 27.8% K
Info: Dunning was a tremendous selection by the Washington Nationals with their pair of top 30 draft picks in the 2016 draft after a career at the University of Florida that was overshadowed by being on one of the deepest college rotations in recent memory.
After a pro debut that saw him impress heavily, Dunning was part of the deal that sent Adam Eaton to Washington, though many saw him as the third piece of the deal. In many eyes, however, he’s the one guy who has the best shot to start long-term.
Dunning isn’t a guy that will work into triple digits, but he still can reach 96 with his heavy sinker, working in the low-90s frequently and generating a ton of ground balls with the pitch. Dunning’s slider seemed to move from plus to “just” above-average in 2017, but when it’s at its best, he gets a good amount of swing and miss with the late movement on the pitch.
Dunning also works with a change that works well with his sinker. He did see some inconsistency in the change this season that was based in some struggles in keeping himself on top of his pitches and tall throughout his delivery. His fastball’s actions worked well enough, even without the best of deliveries, but the slider and change both lost some of their crisp-ness, and certainly they were driven more.
Dunning’s top end control and pitch offerings have him evaluated as a mid-rotation guy. I think he’s got a top-end possibility of a Brad Radke type of a career, where he could front a rotation due to his ability to provide a consistent start every five days. He’ll be at AA Birmingham in 2018, and he could push for what should be a young, talented rotation in 2019 for the White Sox.
5. Blake Rutherford, OF
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/2/1997 (20)
2017 teams/levels played for: low-A Charleston RiverDogs (Yankees), low-A Kannapolis Intimidators
2017 Stats: .260/.326/.348, 440 PA, 2 HR, 10 SB, 38/76 BB/K
Info: Rutherford’s pretty left-handed swing caught the eye of scouts heading into the 2016 draft, and he was considered one of the top high school prospects for most of the pre-draft process, though concerns about the power potential in his swing along with his advanced age for his class (19 when he was drafted) allowed Rutherford to fall to the Yankees at the 18th overall selection of the first round.
After a .351/.415/.570 line between two levels in his draft year, many felt the Yankees had pulled off a steal, and when he opened 2017 with 8 hits in the first 4 games of the season, he was being pumped up as a possible top 25 prospect by the end of the season. However, he never really had the power show up in 2017.
When watching Rutherford this season, it was obvious that he was working a process, not worrying tremendously about his raw numbers
Though Anderson has some different footwork stuff going on ahead of his swing, from the point where their feet are on the ground and swing is moving forward, Rutherford has a very similar swing to Garrett Anderson, and most people would be overjoyed to have an Anderson result out of Rutherford (one 30-HR season, four 40-2B seasons, career .293 hitter).
When watching Rutherford this season, it was obvious that he was working a process, not worrying tremendously about his raw numbers. This was most obvious after he was moved to the White Sox, as he struggled to a .205/.287/.244 line in August, but he wasn’t expanding his zone and was really working at attacking what he could attack (10.2% walk rate, 14.8% strikeout rate on the month). Impressively, his strikeout rate went from 20.7% in the first half of the season to 12.8% in the second half.
Rutherford may not be a centerfielder in the long run, which may put more pressure on some power developing, but his gap power has been evident to this point, and he is an obvious student of hitting, which should serve him well as he opens in high-A Winston-Salem in 2018 with a good chance to move to AA midseason if he can continue his underlying progress.
Next: #3 and #4