Lopsided Phillies’ trade-off

PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 01: Nick Williams
PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 01: Nick Williams
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Fans will warm up to Santana in March or April. Photo by J. Miller/Getty Images.
Fans will warm up to Santana in March or April. Photo by J. Miller/Getty Images. /

Besides the Phillies acquiring setup relievers, the offense received a significant upgrade because general manager Matt Klentak moved a defensive wizard and signed a slugging first baseman to shore up the left-side weakness in the batting order.

Risk versus reward:

While the old baseball ways are disappearing under a sea of numbers, the Philadelphia Phillies took a major step into uncharted waters by hiring an analytically oriented manager. Basically, Klentak is transitioning away from the regular with only a handful of days off over a grueling 162 and incorporating a 13-player system for the best results possible.

IN OTHER WORDS: “Strategy is about making choices, trade-offs; it’s about deliberately choosing to be different.” – Michael Porter

If you look at a mall directory to get your bearings, the biggest help is the “you are here” indicator. And, hitting-wise, the Phils are at January’s crossroads regarding their roster.

Concerning offensive changes to the active 25 during the offseason, Klentak has primarily replaced Freddy Galvis with Carlos Santana. Defensively, J.P. Crawford allowed the exec the luxury of dealing the shortstop a year before his free agency. On the other hand, the most prominent shortcoming was a left-hand bat with power. Ergo, Santana.

Otherwise, the same players are still with the organization, and no rumors are sprouting up from below the surface either. So, Tommy Joseph and Cameron Rupp will be heading to Clearwater in roughly five weeks.

When it comes to first sackers limited only to that position who have 20-homer pop, many are available. But catchers are in limited supply and receiving is a difficult spot to fill.

With an eye for a bargain, general managers are keenly aware of clubs with an extra player, whether it’s a starting pitcher, an infielder, an outfielder or a catcher. They know Klentak would be better-off with just two backstops, and these decision-makers want to capitalize on the situation.

From the armchair GMs on the Internet, one suggested Maikel Franco, Andrew Knapp, Joseph, and Rupp were swapping possibilities for an unspecified package deal. Well, Franco is getting another summer to rebound with the motivation of playing time until and after Scott Kingery‘s promotion.

Regarding trades, others were either offering too much or relatively nothing for something. One wanted to swap Joseph for a starter atop the free agent list. Of course, the usual suspects showed up too: the “take whatever you can get” fan and the “pay him whatever he wants” guy.

Looking over shoulder again, Galvis will be a one-year stopgap in San Diego. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images.
Looking over shoulder again, Galvis will be a one-year stopgap in San Diego. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. /

Strategic update:

For April and May, Cesar Hernandez, Crawford and Franco will be in the lineup except for a few games. However, when Kingery arrives in June, each will start 75 percent of the contests with Hernandez playing more due to his leadoff ability. Of course, the cold bat will be on the bench.

Before June, a utility infielder will also get some at-bats: more if he can play the outfield like Florimon. Yes, and a  needed reserve will also back up Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams.

Barring a move, Joseph will receive limited opportunities at first because Santana will start 130-140 games. And Rupp or Knapp–three options remaining–will probably compete for the secondary role behind Jorge Alfaro.

Beginning in April, the outfield rotation will be 75 percent for Hoskins, Herrera, Altherr, and Williams. But Altherr and Williams will be in the batter’s box less than Hoskins and Herrera. However, an ice-cold Herrera will sit.

Because Klentak and Kapler will share their analytics, the GM will have more in-depth knowledge of his 25-man roster. But it will affect both decision-makers. Additionally, Kapler’s stated preference is keeping players fresh and sharp with plenty of playing time for everybody.

IN OTHER WORDS: “When you’re building something, you know all of the trade-offs.” – Nolan Bushnell

Regarding the bottlenecks at first base and behind the plate, Joseph will be a balancing piece if a trade opportunity presents itself. And Klentak probably won’t receive a fair offer for Rupp unless an injury forces a competitor to make a deal. So, the exec waits.

On the other hand, Klentak has a secondary approach if he likes a proposal. Translation: An overture for Hernandez, Williams or Altherr could lead to a new employment address due to a worthwhile offer. Ergo, all plans are subject to change.

getty-images/2017/10/846268028-Miami-Marlins-v-Philadelphia-Phillies
getty-images/2017/10/846268028-Miami-Marlins-v-Philadelphia-Phillies /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

  • Santana, 31.5: 154 Gms., 667 PA, a .259 Avg., a .363 OBP, a .455 SLG, a .196 ISO, a .274 BABIP, 23 HR, 79 RBI, an .818 OPS and a 3.0 fWAR.
  • Galvis, 28: 162 Gms., 624 PA, a .255 Avg., a .309 OBP, a .382 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .292 BABIP, 12 HR, 61 RBI, a .690 OPS, a 1.6 fWAR, 14 SB, 5 CS and a 5.3 Spd.

Phillies:

  • Hernandez, 27.5: 128 Gms., 577 PA, a .294 Avg., a .373 OBP, a .421 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .353 BABIP, 9 HR, 34 RBI, a .793 OPS, 3.3 fWAR, 15 SB, 5 CS and a 6.0 Spd.
  • Herrera, 26: 138 Gms., 563 PA, a .281 Avg., a .325 OBP, a .452 SLG, a .171 ISO, a .345 BABIP, 14 HR, 56 RBI, a .778 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.
  • Altherr, 27: 107 Gms., 412 PA, a .272 Avg., a .340 OBP, a .516 SLG, a .245 ISO, a .308 BABIP, 19 HR, 65 RBI, an .856 OPS and a 1.3 fWAR.
  • Franco, 25: 154 Gms., 623 PA, a .230 Avg., a .281 OBP, a .409 SLG, a .179 ISO, a .234 BABIP, 24 HR, 76 RBI, a .690 OPS and a -0.5 fWAR.

Hoskins, 24.5:

  • AAA: 115 Gms., 425 PA, a .284 Avg., a .385 OBP, a .581 SLG, a .297 ISO, a .229 BABIP, 29 HR, 91 RBI, a .966 OPS and a 2.7 WARP.
  • Phillies: 50 Gms., 212 PA, a .259 Avg., a .396 OBP, a .618 SLG, a .359 ISO, a .241 BABIP, 18 HR, 48 RBI, a 1.014 OPS and a 2.2 fWAR.

More from Call to the Pen

Williams, 24:

  • AAA: 78 Gms., 306 PA, a .280 Avg., a .308 OBP, a .511 SLG, a .230 ISO, a .358 BABIP, 15 HR, 44 RBI, an .839 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.
  • Phillies: 83 Gms., 343 PA, a .288 Avg., a .338 OBP, a .473 SLG, a .185 ISO, a .375 BABIP, 12 HR, 55 RBI, an .811 OPS and a 0.8 fWAR.

Alfaro, 24.5:

  • Phillies: 29 Gms., 84 PA, a .318 Avg., a .360 OBP, a .514 SLG, a .196 ISO, a .420 BABIP, 5 HR, 14 RBI, an .814 OPS and a 0.6 fWAR.
  • AAA: 84 Gms., 350 PA, a .241 Avg., a .291 OBP, a .358 SLG, a .117 ISO, a .345 BABIP, 7 HR, 43 RBI, a .649 OPS and a 0.9 WARP.

Crawford, 23:

  • Phillies: 23 Gms., 87 PA, a .214 Avg., a .356 OBP, a .300 SLG, a .086 ISO, a .306 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, a .656 OPS and a 0.2 fWAR.
  • AAA: 127 Gms., 556 PA, a .243 Avg., a .351 OBP, a .405 SLG, a .162 ISO, a .275 BABIP, 15 HR, 63 RBI, a .756 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.

Next: Phillies have a strong plan B

Phillies:

  • Joseph, 26.5: 142 Gms., 533 PA, a .240 Avg., a .289 OBP, a .432 SLG, a .191 ISO, a .280 BABIP, 22 HR, 69 RBI, a .721 OPS and a -1.1 fWAR.
  • Rupp, 29: 88 Gms., 331 PA, a .217 Avg., a .299 OBP, a .417 SLG, a .200 ISO, a .298 BABIP, 14 HR, 34 RBI, a .716 OPS and a 0.8 fWAR.
  • Knapp, 26: 56 Gms., 204 PA, a .257 Avg., a .368 OBP, a .368 SLG, a .111 ISO, a .360 BABIP, 3 HR, 13 RBI, a .736 OPS and a 0.7 fWAR.

Kingery, 23.5:

  • AAA: 63 Gms., 286 PA, a .294 Avg., a .337 OBP, a .449 SLG, a .155 ISO, a .348 BABIP, 8 HR, 21 RBI, a .786 OPS, 1.1  WARP, 10 SB, 2 CS and a 6.8 Spd.
  • AA: 69 Gms., 317 PA, a .313 Avg., a .379 OBP, a .608 SLG, a .295 ISO, a .324 BABIP, 18 HR, 44 RBI, a .987 OPS, 4.0  WARP, 19 SB, 3 CS and an 8.7 Spd.
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