Yankees Chance Adams and the spectre of Luis Severino

The New York Yankees top-ranked pitching prospect, Chance Adams, has seemingly sat on the precipice of the Bronx for the last year. Observers have been stymied at the delay, but Brian Cashman has Luis Severino on his mind.

The New York Yankees have one of the best farm systems in the game. And RHP Chance Adams is their top pitching prospect, 53rd for Major League Baseball and second for the Yankees; 2B Gleyber Torres is their top prospect overall, second in the MLB.

But for some reason, known only to Brian Cashman, Adams did not even get as much as an inning in the bigs last year. Now we are left to wonder what Cash thinks of Adams, and what 2018 holds for the pitcher.

Just One Year Ago…

Adams entered 2017 as a rapidly rising player with his most prominent supporter being Brian Cashman. Here he is in an article last February with Steve Serby and the New York Post:

Q: Who might be a sleeper starter? A: There’s a kid, Chance Adams, that was really dominant in A-ball and Double-A last year, and he may very well be our best pitching prospect, if he can continue with the stuff he had in Double-A into Triple-A, he’s someone that could be knocking on the door.

It seemed as if the only thing that was going to prevent Adams from a big league debut was performance; no worries there.

This from May, and an article entitled, Yankees Chance Adams is around the corner for the Yankees:

Adams is a 22-year-old right-hander out of Dallas Baptist University, a fifth round selection from 2015. He was, to say the least, a very fast riser in the system, and while I would almost say his ascendance was as fast Luis Severino, he seemingly never got the same press in the prospect media coverage. I think he could be just as good, or even better.

It Keeps Going Like That

And here is a compendium of articles, the last of which is from August 18th, titled, Yankees Chance Adams: Excelling in the minors.

Adams is 9-4 with a 2.56 ERA with 90:36 K:BB through 98.1 innings in 18 starts at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Adams absolutely dominated the Double-A level earlier this season, going 4-0 with a 1.03 ERA in six starts, and he’s been just as impressive since getting promoted.

The reviews were warranted, though, as Adams finished the season by being named Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Yankees; CF Estevan Florial was named top position player.

Adams went a combined 15-5 with a 2.45 ERA in 27 starts between Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. In 150 1/3 total innings, the Yankees’ top pitching prospect allowed 104 hits and 58 walks, while notching 135 strikeouts. “He’s been a winner at every level,” Yankees vice president of player development Gary Denbo told the New York Post. “He’s definitely an option for us in the starting rotation going forward.”

That sounds like someone who should have gotten a call-up. Why, then, did he not?

He Never Did Take that Chance

Was it because the Yankees did not use many pitchers last year?

No, eleven different men started games for the Yankees; RHP Luis Cessa and LHP Caleb Smith were in that group. Why wasn’t their top pitching prospect? For that, we must turn to Brian Cashman. We already read how excited he was before the season.

However, this is what he said in July:

Cashman added that top pitching prospect Chance Adams could end up getting a shot in the rotation, too. Adams is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 11 Triple-A starts but the Yankees have said they don’t believe he’s ready for the bigs yet.

By All Reports

Really. because everyone else seemed to think he was more worthy of a shot than the retreads.

Cashman did not elaborate. This continued an odd trend; here he is previously, already in mystery mode by the end of May:

Brian Cashman kept those answers close to the vest, stating something vague that performance would justify a call-up. We’ll see. My initial guess is that if he really is ready, but the rotation is filled, they could call him up as a spot starter, or use him out of relief just to get him reps against big league pitching. Or, they wait until September so he doesn’t accrue service time (that seems most likely).

Cash might have already seen something he didn’t like, especially as his comments came at the end of a month in which everyone seemed to want to praise Chance. And, no, Adams was never called up to play, even in September.

Perhaps his most revealing comments came later, though, when speaking to Mike “The Pope” Francesa in July:

When asked if there was a pitcher in the minors who could potentially help, Cashman mentioned Chance Adams, but he said the 22-year-old right-hander is more likely to be used as a reliever than as a starter this season.

But by the end of the season, facts and statements stopped adding up.

A Double-A Standard

At first, it seemed clear that performance would dictate placement; that was not true. And we have already seen that the Yanks needed a lot of starters. Even his use as a reliever never materialized. Meanwhile, Domingo German was called up…from Double-A.

Why, then, was there a disconnect between performance on the field and evaluations from the Yankees?

Fortunately, there are clues and breadcrumbs buried underneath the endless praise. One season-ending review pointed this out:

It’s not like there aren’t concerns, of course. He’s still walking a moderate amount of batters (3.5 BB/9) and MLB.com even admits that his fastball might lack the necessary spin rate. That could be an issue with a juiced ball in Yankee Stadium.

Now with his spin rate; now we are getting somewhere. And then there is this from his MLB prospect profile:

His heater doesn’t feature a lot of life, but his combination of velocity and command makes it tough to hit.

Cashman might view that pitch as eminently more hittable in the majors. Even Adams admitted he needed to command the zone better:

“The change-up is the big one,” Adams said. “Change-ups for strikes and also out of the zone. Fastballs in, sliders back foot, curveball control. A little bit of everything. “I am just trying to fine tune things, but definitely successful change-ups and curveballs.”

Okay, he had some things to work on. But it seems as if the on-field performance demonstrated his success. And the Yankees needed a lot of pitchers last season. Why was Adams not one of them?

The answer is RHP Luis Severino.

But He was Never a Wretch

Severino joined the organization “unhonoured, and unsung,” in 2012. By the middle of the 2014 season, though, he had already become the team’s top prospect; Gary Sanchez was second while Aaron Judge was fifth.

Severino began 2013 as an unknown Yankees prospect who had yet to make his U.S. debut, and he finished it as the top right-handed pitching prospect in the system. He has made another leap in 2014, becoming the organization’s top prospect, period, and pitching in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game.

It certainly seemed earned, since his overpowering fastball and bulldog demeanor made him the picture of a future Ace. And by 2015, the future seemed at hand.

Sevvy made his big league debut that year and posted an ERA of 2.89 over his eleven starts. He seemed ready to challenge as the Ace of the team. Unnoticed, though, was his WHIP: 1.20. As a comparison, 2017 saw him post an ERA of 2.98, but a WHIP of 1.040. He controlled his walks better last year.

A Walk is as Good as a Hit

However, it was a Severino stat of little import back then; it got a lot bigger in 2016. Sevvy threw 43 innings as a starter and posted an 8.58 ERA. While there were a few reasons, the two most prominent were a failure to control his heart rate, as we saw again in the playoffs, and inability to command his pitches.

Previously featuring an elite fastball and two possible above-average to plus offerings in his slider and changeup, his heater and change both took a step back last season and resulted in disaster on the field. Yankees fans are familiar with the fine line between control and command (courtesy of Michael Pineda), and Severino followed a similar pattern with a fastball that managed to find the strike zone, but rarely ended up in the correct quadrant.

The good and well-known news by now is that Severino successfully rehabilitated himself in the off-season.

After consulting with the enemy (Pedro Martinez), Sevvy showed up in 2017 as the Ace he was destined to be. He put a 2.98 ERA and threw 193.1 IP while striking out 230. That was good enough for third in the Cy Young voting.

Of course, the difference is that winner RHP Corey Kluber will be 32 this season while second-place finisher LHP Chris Sale will be 29; Sevvy will be 24.