The Phillies’ Immediate Future
With spring training a month away, Phillies fans will soon hear the pop of a fastball landing in the catcher’s mitt; however, the difficulty of acquiring a dependable starter is not just a problem for general manager Matt Klentak but also many of his contemporaries.
Four outcomes:
Reviewing the offseason moves of the Philadelphia Phillies, the faithful see two setup men, a slugging first baseman, and a new manager. Primarily, the organization’s goal is to improve on their second-half success because of the pieces they added and an increased analytical reliance.
IN OTHER WORDS: “All the flowers of all the tomorrows are in the seed of today.” – Croft M. Pentz
The first signs of the new campaign ahead will be the battles for the rotation spots behind Aaron Nola and the bench jobs. Meanwhile, others will hope to avoid returning to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
During March, two players will be under management’s watchful eyes: Scott Kingery and right-hander Thomas Eshelman. But both will probably begin the first two months of 2018 with Lehigh Valley and receive an earned promotion during a sustained period of excellence.
Although the free-agent market hasn’t had its usual fireworks, one reason is GMs are probably using analytics to determine value. And exceptions involved specific needs. For instance, Klentak overpaid for Carlos Santana because the team has needed a left-handed bat with power for the last two seasons.
Primarily, one theme appears more than the others combined: Phillies fans on the Internet are demanding the signing of Jake Arrieta. They envision a one-two punch of Arrieta and Nola having a legitimate shot at winning the Wild Card Game and advancing deeper in the playoffs.
First off, the Chicago Cubs have offered Arrieta $110 million over four years. And the Phils would only be willing to sign him at that price if he could make them a serious contender for the divisional title. By comparison, Yu Darvish is even more expensive.
Many locals have stated they would outbid other franchises for Arrieta and gladly overpay. However, only one added it’s not his money.
While many supporters only focus on short-term objectives, the front office wouldn’t be inking the ace for one summer, but four. In other words, free agents get older, not better. Ergo, logical.
Deciding on a significant addition, Klentak will not sign an aging star to compete for two campaigns and then eat $55 million to receive prospects. But if the red pinstripes have a solid shot in 2019, the exec might conclude otherwise regarding an ace for meaningful October baseball.
Before and after:
Barring a star falling into their laps, the hometown nine will begin spring training with their current roster. They will go with a Major League offense ranked 10th in second-half runs, the addition of left-handed power, six fire-men for the final nine outs and starters going 5 -6-innings behind a stud.
WORDS OF WISDOM: “People who write about spring training not being necessary have never tried to throw a baseball.” – Sandy “the Left Arm of God” Koufax
To Klentak, ’18 is the bridge to ’19. He realizes the Phillies have yet to play .500 for an entire 162, and a winning season is a next step to a contention window. So, the GM sticks to his rebuilding plan after the worn-out novelty of acquiring youngsters for aging veterans.
Based on the active 25, the red and white could make some noise in the Wild Card standings through August. The idea this year is for management to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses and address those needs for 2019’s run for the divisional crown.
Finishing 2017 with a 37-36 record, the Phils showed a marked improvement in the advancement of Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Alfaro and J.P. Crawford. Additionally, Santana will provide a substantial boost to increase run production.
Besides strengthening the relief corps to hold off other teams, the red pinstripes will be counting on plate discipline to put pressure on opposing pitchers. In other words, OBP will be an essential factor on the lineup cards of skipper Gabe Kapler.
Ramifications:
From the worst 162 to the best, the floor won’t be in last place because the Miami Marlins will have the best shot at finishing 30th. But being in the bottom 10 is still a possibility.
In order to have a 70-92 record, counted-on players would have abysmal numbers, the league would catch up to Hoskins, Williams and Aaron Altherr, and injuries would plague the organization. Or Kapler’s analytical strategy could be a bust if he goes overboard. Hope not!
As for a minimum expectation, a .500 mark or slightly higher like 82-80 should be attainable if they perform as they did in the second half. Of course, some regulars, in that case, would disappoint the faithful, while the winter additions would only balance out those letdowns.
If Santana, Pat Neshek, and Tommy Hunter are productive, the Phillies could finish 10 games over .500 (86-76) as long as the other regulars and youngsters do the same or better than last year. And the surprises offset the disappointments.
Although the franchise had World Champions in 1980 and 2008, they have won pennants fans are familiar with like the 1950 Whiz Kids. And others gave us plenty to root for: the squads of the 1970s, the 1983 Wheeze Kids and the 1993 working-class heroes.
During their history, the Phillies had the collapse in 1964 and the comeback of the team to beat in 2007. However, winning it all by greatly exceeding even the most optimistic predictions haven’t happened for Philadelphia. Besides destiny’s darlings, wunderkinds, and a Cinderella team, what’s the word for a club like that? Miracle!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no extensive statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Plate-discipline comparison:
Phillies potential 1-through-5 lineup:
- Hernandez: 18.0 K% and 10.6 BB% with a .373 OBP.
- Crawford: 25.3 K% and 18.4 BB% with a .356 OBP.
- Herrera: 22.4 K% and 5.5 BB% with a .325 OBP.
- Hoskins: 21.7 K% and 17.5 BB% with a .396 OBP.
- Santana: 14.1 K% and 13.2 BB% with a .363 OBP.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
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Phillies batting order:
- Hernandez, 27.5: 128 Gms., 577 PA, a .294 Avg., a .373 OBP, a .421 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .353 BABIP, 9 HR, 34 RBI, a .793 OPS, 3.3 fWAR, 15 SB, 5 CS and a 6.0 Spd.
Crawford, almost 23:
- Phillies: 23 Gms., 87 PA, a .214 Avg., a .356 OBP, a .300 SLG, a .086 ISO, a .306 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, a .656 OPS and a 0.2 fWAR.
- AAA: 127 Gms., 556 PA, a .243 Avg., a .351 OBP, a .405 SLG, a .162 ISO, a .275 BABIP, 15 HR, 63 RBI, a .756 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.
Next: Lopsided Phillies' trade-off
- Herrera, 26: 138 Gms., 563 PA, a .281 Avg., a .325 OBP, a .452 SLG, a .171 ISO, a .345 BABIP, 14 HR, 56 RBI, a .778 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.
Hoskins, 24.5:
- AAA: 115 Gms., 425 PA, a .284 Avg., a .385 OBP, a .581 SLG, a .297 ISO, a .229 BABIP, 29 HR, 91 RBI, a .966 OPS and a 2.7 WARP.
- Phillies: 50 Gms., 212 PA, a .259 Avg., a .396 OBP, a .618 SLG, a .359 ISO, a .241 BABIP, 18 HR, 48 RBI, a 1.014 OPS and a 2.2 fWAR.
- Santana, 31.5: 154 Gms., 667 PA, a .259 Avg., a .363 OBP, a .455 SLG, a .196 ISO, a .274 BABIP, 23 HR, 79 RBI, an .818 OPS and a 3.0 fWAR.