The Phillies’ Immediate Future

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 16: Jorge Alfaro
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 16: Jorge Alfaro
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Phillies
With Santana’s presence in the lineup, Hoskins will get better pitches to hit. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images.

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no extensive statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Plate-discipline comparison:

Phillies potential 1-through-5 lineup:

  • Hernandez: 18.0 K% and 10.6 BB% with a .373 OBP.
  • Crawford: 25.3 K% and 18.4 BB% with a .356 OBP.
  • Herrera: 22.4 K% and 5.5 BB% with a .325 OBP.
  • Hoskins: 21.7 K% and 17.5 BB% with a .396 OBP.
  • Santana: 14.1 K% and 13.2 BB% with a .363 OBP.

According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.

Rating K% BB%
Excellent 10.0% 15.0%
Great 12.5% 12.5%
Above Average 16.0% 10.0%
Average 20.0% 8.0%
Below Average 22.0% 7.0%
Poor 25.0% 5.5%
Awful 27.5% 4.0%

More from Call to the Pen

Phillies batting order:

  • Hernandez, 27.5: 128 Gms., 577 PA, a .294 Avg., a .373 OBP, a .421 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .353 BABIP, 9 HR, 34 RBI, a .793 OPS, 3.3 fWAR, 15 SB, 5 CS and a 6.0 Spd.

Crawford, almost 23:

  • Phillies: 23 Gms., 87 PA, a .214 Avg., a .356 OBP, a .300 SLG, a .086 ISO, a .306 BABIP, 0 HR, 6 RBI, a .656 OPS and a 0.2 fWAR.
  • AAA: 127 Gms., 556 PA, a .243 Avg., a .351 OBP, a .405 SLG, a .162 ISO, a .275 BABIP, 15 HR, 63 RBI, a .756 OPS and a 2.0 WARP.

Next: Lopsided Phillies' trade-off

  • Herrera, 26: 138 Gms., 563 PA, a .281 Avg., a .325 OBP, a .452 SLG, a .171 ISO, a .345 BABIP, 14 HR, 56 RBI, a .778 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.

Hoskins, 24.5:

  • AAA: 115 Gms., 425 PA, a .284 Avg., a .385 OBP, a .581 SLG, a .297 ISO, a .229 BABIP, 29 HR, 91 RBI, a .966 OPS and a 2.7 WARP.
  • Phillies: 50 Gms., 212 PA, a .259 Avg., a .396 OBP, a .618 SLG, a .359 ISO, a .241 BABIP, 18 HR, 48 RBI, a 1.014 OPS and a 2.2 fWAR.
  • Santana, 31.5: 154 Gms., 667 PA, a .259 Avg., a .363 OBP, a .455 SLG, a .196 ISO, a .274 BABIP, 23 HR, 79 RBI, an .818 OPS and a 3.0 fWAR.