What should the Phillies expect with their nouveau riche players?
The Philadelphia Phillies avoided arbitration with all their eligible players by Friday before the big game. It sounds dramatic, huh? In fact, it may have been the least dramatic sports occurrence last Friday in Philadelphia, where fans were surviving their last day of hand-wringing over the prospect Nick “Maybe I Can” Foles leading the Eagles into a playoff game.
That is, except for the four Phillies involved – and really, for the immediate and possibly long-term future of the Phillies as contenders.
None of the eligible players who had avoided arbitration by Jan. 12 are players with glittering stars next to their names (read, right, Rhys Hoskins won’t be eligible for a while). However, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Luis Garcia, and Cameron Rupp may all become important factors in the Phillies winning in the near future, with the operative term here being near.
All four players just became far richer than the average fan, and while some of the sums that will be paid them are yawners, it is interesting to consider them and what Philly fans should expect of these players.
Let’s take them in the reported order of their signings.
Catcher Rupp signed Jan. 10 for $2.05M. He is expected to be the backup to Jorge Alfaro although Alfaro could falter and Rupp might share “starting” with Andrew Knapp. Rupp has been a sort of starter since the departure of Carlos Ruiz, but he has always had the look of career backup about him. This is probably what he’ll be. He has some pop in his bat, but he needs to become a more selective hitter. His batting average last season was .217.
Next came the third and second most important players on the list, Garcia, and Franco.
Garcia may have been the first of the two to sign. Fans should expect this soon-to-be 31-year-old to merely establish that 2017 was not an outlier year. He had been bouncing between posting annual ERAs under 4.00 and over 6.00 for four years, but as Jim Salisbury noted, he added a splitter to his pitch arsenal last year. The result was a power pitcher becoming far more difficult to hit. His ERA dropped to 2.65. He needs to keep it up and justify his first million dollar contract.
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Franco signed for $2.95 million as befits a 25-year-old slugger with a talented glove and an alleged upside. Everybody following the Phillies, however, knows Franco’s story. That upside is now in doubt. He posted his worst year in 2017, batting only .230 and putting up an OBP of .281. If anything, over the past two years he has looked more and more lost at the plate regarding pitch selection. This needs to stop, or he will be gone at season’s end.
Hernandez signed for the most of the four, $5.1 million, justifiably. Never considered as talented as Franco, the Phillies’ second baseman has become a more robust player than the third baseman. He has become an above average fielder and has led the team in batting two years in a row.
Entering his sixth season, he has a lifetime BA of .284 and a career OBP of .357. This season he needs to push his .294 average in each of the last two years over .300, and use his speed better to steal more bases more consistently. He will have an incentive. Rising MiLB star Scott Kingery will push him, perhaps arriving in May or June.
Next: Philly's immediate future
Over the next several weeks we will see countless articles speculating about the near-term success of more prominent names in the Phillies dugout, but to actually win, a team needs players like the 2018 Arbitration Four to step up as well.