Atlanta Braves: A belated 2018 offseason wish-list
This offseason has been one of the slowest in recent memory. Already mid-January, 13 of the top 20, and 31 of the top 50 MLB free agents remain unsigned, and a blockbuster trade could happen at any time. Can the Atlanta Braves capitalize on this slow offseason with a couple of key acquisitions?
Aside from ridding themselves of Matt Kemp, the Atlanta Braves have done little to improve their chances of playoff contention in 2018. Fear not, Braves fans, for there’s still time (and opportunity) for our beloved Bravos to make a splash one way or another this offseason.
As far as I’m concerned, there are four areas the Atlanta Braves could use an upgrade: Starting pitching, relief pitching, third base, and a corner outfield position (it’s still not clear where Ronald Acuña will be playing in 2018).
The Braves have the farm system depth to make a big trade or two to acquire talent at any of these four positions, and they’ve got the payroll flexibility to sign a pair of moderately-priced free agents.
While it’s highly unlikely that Alex Anthopoulos & co. will make a splash to cover all four positional needs this offseason, wishful thinking has never hurt anyone. In this article, I’ll highlight three available options (one costly, one moderately priced, and one cheap) for the Atlanta Braves at each of the four positions, as well as what I believe it would take to acquire each player.
First up, we’ll look at three starting pitchers that could wind up in a Braves uniform before spring training.
Costly SP: Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays
Alex Anthopoulos’ ties to Toronto make this potential trade an interesting one. Marcus Stroman has three arbitration years left before he hits free agency, and when he does, he’ll likely command something close to $20 million a year. For that reason, his ability to be had at arbitration value for three more years makes him a costly trade target, but well worth it.
I see the Atlanta Braves giving up a package of Mike Foltynewicz, Kolby Allard, Joey Wentz, and Alex Jackson to acquire Stroman, and if it takes one more back-end prospect, Anfernee Seymour.
This is a lot to give up, but Marcus Stroman is absolutely worth it. He finished 2017 with a 3.09 ERA in 201.0 innings, finished 8th among AL Cy Young Award candidates, and was worth an astounding 6.0 WAR. That sounds like the type of player the Braves would be more than happy to shell out prospects for.
Moderately-Priced SP: Lance Lynn, Free Agent
Coming off of 2016 Tommy John surgery, Lance Lynn had a down-ish 2017 season (if you could even call it that), but that was expected. I’ve been saying for a while that this offseason will be the best thing for Lance Lynn’s full recovery from Tommy John, and the Atlanta Braves need to capitalize on the fact that he can potentially be had undervalue due to the recent operation.
Spotrac has Lynn’s market value at just under $17 million per year, but that doesn’t factor in the risk that comes with him coming off of Tommy John. Personally, I believe Lynn can be had on a three-year deal for somewhere between $14 million and $16 million per year, but could just as likely sign a one-year contract with a team to try and build his value.
Regardless of the length of a potential Lynn deal, the Braves need to extend him at least an offer. Even if the righty, entering his age-31 season, replicates his 2017 season in 2018, Atlanta would gladly accept a 3.43 ERA over 180+ innings for around $15 million.
Cheap SP: Jason Vargas, Free Agent
Through the end of June, Jason Vargas had a 2.22 ERA, but endured a rough patch from July through the end of the season, posting a 6.66 ERA from the start of July through the end of the regular season, finishing the year with a 4.16 ERA.
The Braves won’t get much if they opt to sign a cheap starting pitcher, but Vargas may be as good as it gets for $10 million or less. I see him getting between $8 million and $10 million, but no more than that. Vargas’ rough stretch to close out the season makes him extremely affordable, and the dominance he showed through his first 16 starts just might make him worth the risk.
Costly RP: Greg Holland, Free Agent
While I don’t see the Atlanta Braves in any rush to sign an expensive free agent reliever, it’s been rumored that Greg Holland has shown interest in the club. Atlanta’s bullpen was an emotional rollercoaster in 2017, and a guy like Holland would be a great addition to help keep games under control in the late innings.
Between 2011 and 2014, Holland owned a 1.86 ERA across 256.1 innings and was easily one of the most dominant relievers in the game. After a down year in Colorado (of all places to pitch) during which he still led the NL with 41 saves, I’m confident that Holland will return back to his dominant form away from Colorado.
Spotrac has Holland’s market value at $13.3 million, but after seeing former Royals teammate Wade Davis ink a deal for over $17 million a year, I’d say Holland could command close to $15 million a year. If I’m the Atlanta Braves in negotiations with Holland, I would offer him a three-year, back-loaded deal for $42 million, with a club option after the 2018 season.
Moderately-Priced RP: Tony Watson, Free Agent
Tony Watson has been one of the more under-the-radar relievers over the past few seasons. Since 2013, the lefty has posted a 2.43 ERA along with just a 1.054 WHIP in 358.2 innings, and you can’t ask for much better from a non-closer.
Watson’s career 2.5 walks per nine innings have me drooling over the fact that he’s a free agent, as I feel like he’d be a wonderful, affordable addition to the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen. He’s entering his age-33 season, and after a rocky start to the 2017 season, seemed to return back to his dominant form when the Pirates traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
I’ve got Watson earning $8 million a year on a two-year deal because not many teams want to lock a reliever down too far into his thirties without first seeing how he ages into his mid-thirties. If Watson can repeat what he’s done for the past five years, he’ll be a steal at $8 million.
Cheap RP: Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
With just one year left before free agency, and coming off of a down year, Kelvin Herrera may available via trade for virtually next to nothing. Herrera posted a 4.25 ERA in 59.1 innings in 2017, but that’s nowhere near consistent with the career 2.63 ERA he owned heading into the season.
From May 14th through July 1st, Herrera owned a 6.35 ERA in 18 appearances, and opposing hitters had a ridiculous .407 BABip against him. This rough patch was one of the main reasons his ERA soared above his career average in 2017, and I don’t think Herrera and his electric fastball will run into similar issues in 2018.
If I’m the Atlanta Braves, I would offer Dustin Peterson and Tyler Pike to the Royals for Herrera. Peterson has shown potential at times, and Tyler Pike is entering his make-or-break 2018 season in Double-A but was promising with high-A Florida in 2017. This is an offer that ultimately, the Royals should and likely would accept.
Costly Third Baseman: Mike Moustakas, Free Agent
Mike Moustakas is quite possibly the most interesting free agent on the market. The 29-year-old posted a higher batting average (.272) than his BABip (.263), and that rarely ever happens. A career-best 38 home runs, however, has teams in need of a third baseman drooling over Moustakas with hopes that he’ll be able to repeat this impressive feat.
Not only was Moose a power threat in 2017, but he put the ball in play quite often. The only MLB players with more than 30 home runs and a strikeout rate lower than Moustakas’ 15.7% were Nolan Arenado, Joey Votto, Francisco Lindor, and Anthony Rizzo. That’s some pretty elite company to be in.
Thanks to his prime age and breakout offensive season, Mike Moustakas will command well over $15 million per year. I’ve got a Moustakas contract somewhere close to five years and $90 million, an average of $18 million per year. While the Atlanta Braves may not be in the market for such a contract, it would be awesome to see Moustakas man the hot corner for them.
Moderately-Priced Third Baseman: Todd Frazier, Free Agent
While Todd Frazier won’t be cheap, he’s also not going to cost an absurd amount of money as a free agent thanks to his low-average, high-power playing style. Frazier often walks, doing so at a 14.4% rate in 2017, which adds to his value a bit.
The 31-year-old put up a very Dan Uggla-esque season in 2017, hitting for just a .213 average but collecting 19 doubles and 27 home runs. That worries me a bit, but with Frazier being a lock for 25+ home runs with a chance at upwards of 30, he’s worth the risk for the right price.
Entering his age-32 season, I don’t see Todd Frazier getting any more than a three-year deal with a club option after two years. I’m setting his price at $12-$13 million per year, as no one is going to pay much more than that for someone who has a chance to be the next post-prime Dan Uggla.
Cheap Third Baseman: Jedd Gyorko, St. Louis Cardinals
With three years of club control at around the price, he’s truly worth Jedd Gyorko could probably be had for a reasonable price regarding the Atlanta Braves giving up talent. Gyorko had arguably his best season yet in 2017, slashing .272/.341/.472 with 21 doubles and 20 home runs in just 125 games (481 PA). Entering his age-29 season, Gyorko has an excellent chance to repeat those numbers.
Gyorko is owed $9 million in 2018, $13 million in 2019, and has a $13 million club option for 2020 with a $1 million buyout, which enables the Braves to grant Gyorko free agency following the 2019 season. If Austin Riley has proven himself ready, and they don’t feel like they’re able to swing a trade to rid themselves of Gyorko.
If Atlanta were to try and swing a trade for Jedd Gyorko, it would look something like giving up Julio Teheran and Patrick Weigel, who’s a high-risk, high-reward prospect currently recovering from Tommy John surgery. This is relatively cheap, compared to what it would take to acquire a top-tier third baseman like Kris Bryant or Manny Machado (if Machado had a few years of club control).
Costly Corner Outfielder: Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins
Following the Marlins trading away Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna, it’s rumored that Christian Yelich is not happy with the current state of the team, and would like to be traded as well. Currently, Yelich is one of the game’s top corner outfielders, and, with five years of club control, would require a serious package in a trade.
A .282/.369/.439 slash line helped Yelich cement his superstar status in the MLB, and the fact that he’s never owed more than $15 million in any one year through 2022 only makes him more valuable in a trade. Away from Marlins Park, Yelich owns a .301 average and a .465 slugging percentage in 325 games (1455 PA), so if the Atlanta Braves want him, they’d better be ready to shell out the prospects.
Considering all aspects of Christian Yelich’s career thus far, as well as his team-friendly contract moving forward, the Braves would likely have to offer up a haul similar to the group of Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Kolby Allard, and Alex Jackson. If they’re ready to give up a package of that magnitude, the Braves can have Yelich, and he just might be worth it.
Moderately-Priced Corner Outfielder: Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
I love Ian Happ. Call me his biggest fan if you must, but I believe Happ is in line for quite the MLB career, but as of right now, he’d be cheaper than Yelich. For that reason, I think the Atlanta Braves should do their best to try and steal him from the Cubs. Thanks to being a late call-up, Happ still has six more years of club control, including at least two at league minimum salary.
Happ finished 8th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, although I believe he would have finished higher if he had played a full season in the MLB. The 23-year-old batted just .253 but collected 17 doubles, 3 triples, and 24 home runs in just 115 games (413 PA). Happ struck out 129 times too, which will need to be assessed, but honestly makes him a bit more affordable.
Ian Happ won’t be cheap, but he also won’t cost as much as Christian Yelich, which is a plus. If the Braves offered the Cubs Julio Teheran, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Muller, it would be very hard for Chicago to turn down that deal. This is especially true because the Cubs lost Jake Arrieta to free agency, and are in need of an experienced starting pitcher to take his place in the rotation.
Cheap Corner Outfielder: ???
Honestly, I don’t see any reason for the Atlanta Braves to use up any resources to get a cheap corner outfielder when they’ve already got Nick Markakis. I’d be beating a dead horse if I tried to explain why Markakis is valuable to the Braves in some capacity, but I will say that I don’t believe there’s reason to acquire another corner outfielder unless it’s a definite upgrade over Markakis, and I don’t see any that fit the description.
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A common theme throughout the trade proposals I presented was the idea of trading Julio Teheran. The idea hurts at first, but when Braves fans realize that Teheran is more valuable on the trade market than he is on the Atlanta Braves’ roster, accepting his inevitable trade will be much easier.
As far as making the playoffs in 2018, there’s a small chance that, if the right opportunities present themselves, Alex Anthopoulos will do what he can to make the Braves contenders, but there’s no guarantee that those opportunities will come about.
Braves fans might have to wait until 2019 before the team is playing meaningful baseball, but at the very least, 2019 will be a fun year to watch a few young kids adjust to MLB life, and there certainly won’t be any shortage of excitement.
Next: Cards' Yadier Molina to retire after 2020
Even if the Atlanta Braves finish under .500 for a fifth straight season, the team will give fans reasons to smile.