Philadelphia Phillies' year of the challenge

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Even if the Phillies add two starters, Eickhoff will be in the rotation. Photo by Stephen Lam/Getty Images. /

Focusing on the Phillies’ starting rotation, fans see many options, but most have a price tag general manager Matt Klentak is not comfortable recommending to his higher-ups.

Rotation race:

Because of a slow free-agent market, some supporters of the Philadelphia Phillies are under the impression Klentak isn’t conducting business to their liking. But even though the GM has acquired two setup men and a left-handed bat with power, unsurprisingly, many disappointed locals feel not signing an ace equals a missed opportunity.

IN OTHER WORDS: “There are two ways to be happy: improve your reality, or lower your expectations.” – Jodi Picoult

With the clock ticking away the days of January, the negotiations for overpriced free agents and Scott Boras’ clients are continuing toward spring training. But patient franchises interested in the top hurlers are waiting for their demands to drop in total value and/or length.

Even though the two aces on the market have yet to sign, the bottom offer for either is $110 million over four summers. But the Phils won’t commit $100 million if they can’t win the division. Due diligence only!

On the second tier, three starters are the backup plans for contenders adding another arm to strengthen their staff. But two organizations with rotation needs aren’t re-upping them, and another is the Tampa Bay Rays, who won’t re-sign a free agent and especially one with diminished stuff since his T.J. surgery: too risky in seasons and dollars.

Regarding trade possibilities, other GMs are taking proposals from many clubs and asking for young keepers like second sacker Scott Kingery. No deadline, no rush.

If Klentak doesn’t like the asking prices of the better free-agent starters, he could accept a salary dump or an available veteran as a one-campaign stopgap. Or does the decision-maker think he already has younger versions on the 40-man roster at or near the MLB minimum like right-hander Ben Lively?

On Internet sites related to the Phillies, many armchair GMs provided numerical proof to back their claims for or against a free agent, a trade candidate, a quick-fix acquisition or the usual suspects in the organization. But one poster found those youngsters unacceptable.

Surprisingly, one reason given to sign a top moundsman was to cover the team if Aaron Nola suffers an injury with a lengthy rehab. Well, no franchise–especially one with many hurlers not named Nola–will ink a costly pitcher as a plan B.

Expect Velasquez To Be the Fifth Starter If the Phils Acquire Two Rotation Pieces. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. /

Three arms:

Barring any pitching changes for 2018, the red pinstripes will be competitive because their offense proved it could plate runs. They were 10th in the majors for the second half of 2017, and the addition of Carlos Santana will increase their production.

As for lead protection, the hometown nine have a lefty specialist, five setup men, and a closer. Yes, Hector Neris! He saved all 19 opportunities he had after the All-Star break.

Clearly, Nola will head up the rotation and have the Opening Day assignment. And you can expect more dominant performances and stretches from the newly minted ace: He added fastball velocity by using his legs and increased his accuracy above the major league average of 70 percent.

Slotting second, Jerad Eickhoff is a good bet to bounce back to his 2016 form: 11-14 with a 3.65 ERA for 197 1/3 innings over 33 games. He also recorded, at least, an out in the seventh frame nine times that summer. Prediction: a comeback.

In the three spot, Vince Velasquez will strive to improve on his results for ’16: 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA for 131 innings over 24 games. But if he can command his secondary pitches to go with his 94-mph smoke and stay healthy, he could be better than a veteran added during the offseason for ’18.

IT APPLIES HERE: “It isn’t the mountain ahead that wears you out; it’s the grain of sand in your shoe.” – Robert W. Service

When he’s healthy, Eflin is effective. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

One or two:

When the agents realize their $14 million starter won’t receive, for instance, an offer of $20 million per year, the costs will be realistic, and Klentak will decide at that time. In other words, if a bargain isn’t there, he’ll pick between the available stopgaps and the youngsters on the 40-man roster.

Going with in-house arms after Nola, Eickhoff, and Velasquez, the Phils have the big ifs: right-handers Lively, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin and Jake Thompson. That stated, one or two will be starters through April, and the others will work on their pointed-out shortcomings with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

In May, one or two hurlers could switch places if management doesn’t like the results. And righty Thomas Eshelman will probably join the competition with a June call-up if he continues his success with Lehigh Valley.

Barring a surprise performance in March, the four moundsmen with some big league experience will continue learning their craft with the Phillies or the IronPigs. However, they all have difficulty being consistent. And accuracy for an MLB pitcher is 70 percent.

If a hurler doesn’t have an average heater, his reliance on control is even more critical. Therefore, having more giddyap on a fastball can be the difference-maker for a major league opportunity. Expect Pivetta to get more chances.

Average speed of four-seam fastballs:

MLB average: 93.19 mph.
Pivetta: 94.5 mph.
Eflin: 92.98 mph.
Lively: 91.3 mph.
Thompson: 91.03 mph.
Leiter: 91.03 mph.

Based on the current roster, Lively has a decent shot to make the rotation. Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images. /

Eight for 2018:

With Lively, his first three appearances were seven innings each, and he only accomplished seven frames twice for his other 12 outings. But in September! And he went 3-6 with a 4.66 ERA in those last 12 appearances.

On the other hand, Pivetta was dominant when he commanded his fastball and his secondary pitches. But he was only effective in five of his 26 performances.

Struggling with injuries in ’18, Eflin wasn’t ready for Opening Day, had elbow inflammation requiring a disabled-list stint with rehab, and ended the 162 in late August with a right shoulder strain. However, he had a 2.81 ERA for his first five starts over 32 MLB innings: three seven-frame outings.

In his eight starts, Thompson went 3-2 with a 3.27 ERA for 41 1/3 frames: roughly five innings per outing. Unfortunately, he walked 18, and his ERA estimators overall were 5.23 or over.

As for Mark Leiter and his six-pitch arsenal, he went 3-5 with a 5.19 ERA for 60 2/3 innings over 11 starts. But he might not make the team if the red pinstripes don’t carry a long man. So, he’ll probably open the campaign with the Allentown affiliate.

Regarding MiLB starters, major league hitters don’t miss pitches Triple-A batters do. But do these minor league hurlers have the mental toughness for the majors? That stated, Eshelman has excellent control, but is it 70 percent accurate?

Two flamethrowers who are second half options before September are right-handers Drew Anderson and Enyel De Los Santos, who was the return in the Galvis deal. In fact, either or both could be strong candidates for the five-man staff of Lehigh Valley.

To sum up, until the top free agents lower their asking prices and sign with contenders, the market for starting pitchers will continue to move slowly. Basically, the question is who won’t blink first? Klentak!

If Pivetta improves his control, he’ll earn a rotation slot. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies starters:

Nola, 24.5: 27 Gms., 168 Inn., 12-11, a 3.54 ERA, a 3.27 FIP, a 3.38 xFIP, a 3.60 SIERA, a 4.3 fWAR and a 1.21 WHIP.
Eickhoff, 27.5: 24 Gms., 128 Inn., 4-8, a 4.71 ERA, a 4.30 FIP, a 4.86 xFIP, a 4.72 SIERA, a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.52 WHIP.
Velasquez, 25.5: 15 Gms., 72 Inn., 2-7, a 5.13 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 4.56 xFIP, a 4.70 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.50 WHIP.

Lively, 25.5:

Phillies: 15 Gms., 88 2/3 Inn., 4-7, a 4.26 ERA, a 4.97 FIP, a 5.58 xFIP, a 5.27 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.29 WHIP.
AAA: 16 Gms., 97 Inn., 7-5, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, a 3.97 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP.

Leiter, 26.5:

Phillies: 27 Gms., 11 Starts, 90 2/3 Inn., 3-6, a 4.96 ERA, a 5.14 FIP, a 4.19 xFIP, a 4.14 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
AAA: 7 Gms., 5 Starts, 30 Inn., 2-1, a 4.20 ERA, a 3.67 FIP, a 2.49 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.

Eflin, 23.5:

Phillies: 11 Gms., 64 1/3 Inn., 1-5, a 6.16 ERA, a 6.10 FIP, a 5.21 xFIP, a 5.08 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
AAA 8 Gms., 7 Starts, 43 1/3 Inn., 1-4, a 4.57 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 4.43 xFIP and a 1.45 WHIP.

Phillies’ year of the challenge