New York Yankees: How can Aroldis Chapman become elite again?
Aroldis Chapman hasn’t been his former self during his stint with the New York Yankees. But there are some small tweaks in his game that could make a significant difference.
The New York Yankees possess arguably the best relief corps by far. And that’s without flame-thrower Aroldis Chapman at his best.
Following a mediocre season in 2017, the left-hander has an opportunity to return to his high standards once again.
Other closers surpassed Chapman in the “unhittable closer” category, as Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimberly both posted remarkable numbers throughout the past two seasons. Even Zach Britton, who sat out most of 2017 due to injury, was on a level that Chapman wasn’t.
New York’s primary closer blew four saves in 26 opportunities, which sparked some skepticism among fans. With David Robertson and Dellin Betances in the pen, former manager Joe Girardi liked his chances when he gave Chapman the hook in August.
But the southpaw worked his way back into his role by the postseason. Despite earning the loss in one bout, he was electric in October, whiffing 16 batters in eight innings.
Yet, Chapman struggled at points throughout the year. Even though his numbers from last season don’t look drastically different compared to one of his former All-Star seasons, his ERA spiked significantly.
He posted his lowest strikeout rate in his career in 2017, though it was still an impressive 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Nevertheless, when the Yankees signed him for more than $17 million a year, they expected the four-time All-Star to thrive as he did in the National League.
But he’s currently facing a bump in the road. The veteran is still just 29 years old and hasn’t lost any of his strength. That being said, he can make some major improvements to bring himself back into the conversation for the league’s best closer.
Here are just a few of them.
Find confidence in the fastball again
Chapman’s heater hasn’t lost much velocity, just effectiveness.
When the closer pitched in the National League, his go-to pitch seemed unbeatable. American League hitters froze against it in the 2015 All-Star Game, a year before he joined the Bronx Bombers.
Since then, opposing batters have caught on. Players are making more contact against it, hence leading to an uptick in hits allowed. While hitters still boast a minuscule average against his fastball throughout his career, they hit .191 against it – second-highest in his career.
Chapman’s fastball kept people honest at the dish in the past, which allowed him to utilize his off-speed stuff more efficectively. And even though he had a wipeout slider, he used his heater to rack up his numerous strikeouts.
That wasn’t the case in 2017, as he struggled using fireballs as his payoff pitch.
Strikeout % for Fastballs
- 2011: 26.8 percent
- 2012: 40.2 percent
- 2013: 39.4 percent
- 2014: 51.1 percent
- 2015: 43.4 percent
- 2016: 38.4 percent
- 2017: 28.0 percent
Chapman still revs up the heat. His fastball averaged 100 mph last season, which isn’t his lowest ever. But hitters expect it, and it’s evident they can time it.
The closer can still use it effectively; he just needs to have pinpoint accuracy. As a power pitcher, he’s vulnerable to mistakes. Teams don’t want to make big mistakes at the end of the game. As many Yankees fans saw last season, Chapman’s blunders became frustrating.
Once he restores his consistency and confidence with his fastball, Chapman can become the elite pitcher he was before 2016.
Boone must help Chapman
Relief pitchers get into a rhythm. They become accustomed to pitching in two games per series. That’s when Chapman thrives, compared to when he has more rest.
In the past, Chapman pitched at his highest level when he gets a single day of rest. That’s been the routine. And with a plethora of reliable relievers, Boone needs to contemplate about Chapman’s pitching plan.
David Robertson provides insurance in the ninth inning. Even though he enjoyed a career-year setting up Chapman last season, he can potentially fill in when necessary.
Thus, while the Yankees should primarily use Chapman in the ninth, they don’t need to force him to contribute three nights in a row. It will help him stay fresh, even if it diminishes his numbers a bit.
Overall, the southpaw is still overpowering no matter how many days of rest he gets. But his potency perishes when he has no rest. Half of the hits he allowed when receiving no rest were for extra bases.
However, when the lefty receives too much rest, he looks rusty, yielding more walks and baserunners. That was the case in the past as well. Chapman allows more walks in fewer at-bats when New York gives him more than three days of rest.
Boone has to find his closer’s sweet spot. With a multitude of late-inning weapons on the bump, he shouldn’t feel pressured to go to Chapman when players get on base.
But if the hard-thrower is on one day’s rest, it may be best for the Yankees if he’s on the mound.
Throw more strikes
It’s insane how much better pitchers fare when they throw first-pitch strikes. Chapman, like other pitchers, flounders in big situations when he can’t get ahead.
When they fell behind 0-1 against Chapman last year, opponents’ triple-slash was a measly .170/.183/.250. But when Chapman fell behind 1-0 against them, their triple-slash improved mightily to .254/.443/.407.
Even though he posted his worst ERA since 2011, his walk rate wasn’t his worst-ever. Surprisingly, he accumulated more walks per nine innings during three of his four All-Star seasons.
Chapman doesn’t put himself into many holes once he gets ahead. After any 0-1 count, the Yankees closer walked just one person last season. But when he got behind, he racked up 19 walks, compared to 17 strikeouts.
For a struggling pitcher, every little thing matters. And this was the first season in which Chapman couldn’t work his way back once he fell behind.
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In comparison, the lefty racked up at least 40 strikeouts following a 1-0 count in every year since 2011. Hitters also posted a decent average – in terms of against Chapman – after getting ahead 2-0.
Yet, what may be more startling is that he didn’t surrender a majority of his home runs after getting behind in 2017. That was the case in the past. Thus it could be an issue in the upcoming season.
Chapman used to be the most intimidating pitcher on the mound. Now, even though guys like Jansen and Kimbrel surpassed him in the previous two years, he can find himself back at the top in 2018.
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He doesn’t need to revamp his delivery or make any substantial changes. All he has to do is focus on the little things. Then he could thrive once again as the go-to guy for the Yankees.