Throw more strikes
It’s insane how much better pitchers fare when they throw first-pitch strikes. Chapman, like other pitchers, flounders in big situations when he can’t get ahead.
When they fell behind 0-1 against Chapman last year, opponents’ triple-slash was a measly .170/.183/.250. But when Chapman fell behind 1-0 against them, their triple-slash improved mightily to .254/.443/.407.
Even though he posted his worst ERA since 2011, his walk rate wasn’t his worst-ever. Surprisingly, he accumulated more walks per nine innings during three of his four All-Star seasons.
Chapman doesn’t put himself into many holes once he gets ahead. After any 0-1 count, the Yankees closer walked just one person last season. But when he got behind, he racked up 19 walks, compared to 17 strikeouts.
For a struggling pitcher, every little thing matters. And this was the first season in which Chapman couldn’t work his way back once he fell behind.
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In comparison, the lefty racked up at least 40 strikeouts following a 1-0 count in every year since 2011. Hitters also posted a decent average – in terms of against Chapman – after getting ahead 2-0.
Yet, what may be more startling is that he didn’t surrender a majority of his home runs after getting behind in 2017. That was the case in the past. Thus it could be an issue in the upcoming season.
Chapman used to be the most intimidating pitcher on the mound. Now, even though guys like Jansen and Kimbrel surpassed him in the previous two years, he can find himself back at the top in 2018.
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He doesn’t need to revamp his delivery or make any substantial changes. All he has to do is focus on the little things. Then he could thrive once again as the go-to guy for the Yankees.