A Phillies’ fit by popular demand
Just mentioning his name to a Phillies fan receives over 90 percent approval guaranteed, but general manager Matt Klentak won’t make an offer for over three summers unless it’s a bargain.
The Forecast:
While national writers compartmentalize organizations into market size, contenders, also-rans and rebuilding clubs, they have frequently listed the Philadelphia Phillies as potential landing spots for free-agent pitchers. Yes, the team has money and needs, but when and why did restructuring end?
IN OTHER WORDS: “Are you placing enough interesting, freakish, long shot, weirdo bets?” – Tom Peters
With February around the corner, the impasse is still present for top unsigned moundsmen and interested franchises. But one reason doesn’t suit all situations except for conflicting strategies.
For instance, players and their representatives want to maximize their earning potential, while some contending organizations wish to reset the percentage due for exceeding the luxury tax by dropping below the $197 million threshold for 2018. And other franchises prefer offering contracts with a higher AAV (average annual value) for three campaigns instead of five.
To illustrate, Klentak inked Carlos Santana for $60 million over three seasons with a club option instead of $75 million over five years: $15 million less of a financial commitment. In other words, the GM was more comfortable with a $20 million AAV, and Santana was easier to sign. Ergo, strategy.
On the other hand, some clubs may be trying to keep the costs of superstars down. Yes, $300 million or more will be the minimum for three otherworldly pros: Clayton Kershaw, Manny Machado, and Bryce Harper. Are some execs holding the line on escalating salaries?
Even though many unsigned players are Scott Boras’ clients, he isn’t doing business much differently than past offseasons. But one exception is his “stay calm” mantra because some unnamed stars are reportedly panicking.
At Phillies sites, one Internet poster stated he had decided against a trade for attractive starters because the cost is prohibitive. He didn’t like the unsigned hurlers for more than two summers and wondered about overpaying for a one-campaign veteran to move in July. His question: Is such a pitcher even out there?
Apparently, some other locals believe Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr or Cesar Hernandez are equal to in-demand starters: Marcus Stroman and Chris Archer. But the Toronto Blue Jays will only listen, while the Tampa Bay Rays want a strong multi-prospect package including Scott Kingery or Sixto Sanchez. Ergo, a lopsided swap.
Cost uncertainty:
With six teams to pick from, right-hander Yu Darvish is supposedly deciding on what? The asking price is an annual minimum of $25 million for six or seven years, and one baseball site predicted $160 million for six seasons. However, five major bidders are trying to be under $197 million for ’18.
When is the casting call for “Everybody Loves Jake?” But everybody doesn’t include any GM unwilling to beat the $110 million proposal over four summers from the Chicago Cubs, which is only $10 million more than a forecasted outcome. Price tag: $25 million annually for five or six campaigns.
In the $15 million range per 162, right-handers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb hope to receive that asking price for five seasons or $75 million total. But some four-year predictions were $56 million for Lynn and $48 million for Cobb.
After earning $10 million in 2017, Cashner is probably seeking a three-year deal for $36 million or best offer. However, the righty’s numbers reveal a decline in fastball velocity and strikeouts.
In the free-agent pool for stopgaps, Garcia has yet to establish his value due to still uncommitted starters. But the southpaw received one’s site’s forecast of $16 million for two summers.
WORDS OF EXPERIENCE: “There are more teams looking for pitchers than there are pitchers. That’s why it’s pricey.” – Brian Cashman
“Agent provocateur”
According to Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Boras represents 20 unsigned players. And he is the super agent for Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn, and Garcia.
As for Klentak, he evaluated those five hurlers and Cashner before 2018. And because the exec had anticipated the Boras factor, he added a left-handed bat with power and two setup men to strengthen his 25-man roster.
Primarily, the Phillies want to establish, at least, a winning record (82-80) before spending north of $99 million for an aging starter. And both Darvish and Arrieta have offers in or above that vicinity. Ergo, a dead end!
On the other hand, nobody wants to hear anything other than Arrieta will don red pinstripes, and nothing can extinguish that until he signs. But these two words are the cure for this wishful thinking: Scott Boras.
In Klentak’s view, you’d see the top four starters are Boras’ clients, and he is willing to go down to the wire to satisfy his expectations. So, a decision maker’s plan is for a last-minute bargain because it occasionally happens due to the super agent’s strategy.
Because of the influence of Boras on the market, GMs with a highly sought-after moundsman want a big haul including Kingery or Sanchez. And another reason is the disappointing stats of the free agents after Darvish and Arrieta. In fact, what’s the only thing Klentak is missing? A silver bullet!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
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Comparison of ERA estimators:
- Darvish: a 3.83 FIP, a 3.65 xFIP and a 3.71 SIERA.
- Arrieta: a 4.16 FIP, a 4.11 xFIP and a 4.15 SIERA.
- Cobb: a 4.16 FIP, a 4.24 xFIP and a 4.48 SIERA.
- Lynn: a 4.82 FIP, a 4.75 xFIP and a 4.85 SIERA.
- Cashner: a 4.61 FIP, a 5.30 xFIP and a 5.52 SIERA.
- Garcia: a 4.25 FIP, a 4.18 xFIP and a 4.54 SIERA.
Top Phillies possibilities:
- Darvish, 31.5: 31 Gms., 186 2/3 Inn., 10-12, a 3.86 ERA, a 3.83 FIP, a 3.65 xFIP, a 3.71 SIERA, a 3.5 fWAR and a 1.16 WHIP.
- Arrieta, almost 32: 30 Gms., 168 1/3 Inn., 14-10, a 3.53 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, a 4.11 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, 2.4 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.
Middle Phillies possibilities:
- Cobb, 30: 29 Gms., 179 1/3 Inn., 12-10, a 3.66 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, a 4.24 xFIP, a 4.48 SIERA, a 2.4 fWAR and a 1.22 WHIP.
- Lynn, 30.5: 33 Gms., 186 1/3 Inn., 11-8, a 3.43 ERA, a 4.82 FIP, a 4.75 xFIP, a 4.85 SIERA, 1.4 fWAR and a 1.23 WHIP.
Next: Phillies' year of the challenge
Bottom Phillies possibilities:
- Cashner, 31.5: 28 Gms., 166 2/3 Inn., 11-11, a 3.40 ERA, a 4.61 FIP, a 5.30 xFIP, a 5.52 SIERA, a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.32 WHIP.
- Garcia, 31.5: 27 Gms., 157 Inn., 5-10, a 4.41 ERA, a 4.25 FIP, a 4.18 xFIP, a 4.54 SIERA, 2.1 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.