Phillies: Truth about rebuilding
While Phillies fans search for answers to the 2018 rotation, their patience is in short supply regarding general manager Matt Klentak, and anything other than fixing the staff to their satisfaction is unacceptable.
Few from many:
Since the offseason prior to the 2015 campaign, the Philadelphia Phillies had three years to trade their aging veterans, audition players for most of their 25 roster slots, and field a contender. However, restructuring is moving proven stars in their 30s for prospects: The swap is quality for quantity.
IN OTHER WORDS: “I guess that’s the story of life: what you most fear never happens, but what you most yearn for never happens either. This is the difference between life and fiction. I suppose it’s a good trade-off. But I’m not sure.” – Philip K. Dick
Rebuilding is the last resort for a franchise because losing is not only painful for management and players but also the fan base. In other words, attendance drops and television viewership does as well. Yes, revenue.
When the novelty of acquiring young talent fades, the locals conclude someone is to blame for the defeats: The execs or the players aren’t doing their jobs. But restructuring isn’t cut-and-dried, doesn’t guarantee success, and isn’t on a time-schedule.
Even if stars are past their prime, they can still produce with some semblance of their glory days, and dealing them means a lot of pitching prospects with the hope of one surprise or more. Of course, no club is going to part with the best arms in their pipeline.
During 2017, Phillies fans on the Internet questioned not promoting starters from the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs at the right time. Well, Klentak looks at more than just a pitcher’s ERA. He primarily wants to know the hurler’s response to adversity.
On the other hand, a moundsman like righty Thomas Eshelman remains with the Allentown affiliate because the Phils don’t want to burn a roster slot. Only 15 MiLB stars per team have one. But not having that protection allows another organization to claim players through waivers.
Regarding significant trades, a GM’s priority is a starting catcher who will be working with the pitching staff for many seasons. So, Jorge Alfaro, specifically, was the centerpiece of the return for Cole Hamels.
In fact, all the hurlers picked up from other teams were only rotation arms. No club deals away a potential ace. No, those studs come through the minors like Aaron Nola and right-hander Sixto Sanchez.
Appraising the return:
In the major leagues, the average four-seam fastball is 93.19 mph. But if a pitcher can top out at 95 mph or more, he can miss his target two or three times per start without any consequences.
However, if a starter has a below-average heater, control is critical. He has to hit the mark with 70 percent accuracy just to stick with the team. Ergo, 70 out of 100! But achieving 75-80 percent is the pinpoint control of, at least, a two- or-three-slot moundsman.
WORDS OF WISDOM: “Trade-offs have been with us ever since the late unpleasantness in the Garden of Eden.” – Thomas Sowell
In the organization, the three acquired flamethrowers are Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, and righty Enyel De Los Santos. Translation: Velasquez was available because of his injury history, Pivetta still has control problems, and De Los Santos was 15th overall on the depth chart of the San Diego Padres.
The average velocity of four-seam fastballs:
- MLB average: 93.19 mph.
- Pivetta: 94.5 mph.
- De Los Santos: 94 mph.
- Velasquez: 93.86 mph.
- Eflin: 92.98 mph.
- Lively: 91.3 mph.
- Thompson: 91.03 mph.
- Eshelman: 90.5 mph.
- Eickhoff: 90.4 mph.
Regarding the starters who rely on accuracy, Ben Lively, Jake Thompson and Eshelman are in the mix for the bottom rungs of the five-man staff. On the other hand, Zach Eflin–at almost 93 mph–was available because of his bad knees.
Heading into his fourth summer with the red pinstripes, Jerad Eickhoff must have a solid command of his arsenal to bounce back to his 2016 form. As for Velasquez, should he be a bullpen piece or a rotation arm in his third campaign? The three-slot starter!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies starters:
- Eickhoff, 27.5: 24 Gms., 128 Inn., 4-8, a 4.71 ERA, a 4.30 FIP, a 4.86 xFIP, a 4.72 SIERA, a 1.9 fWAR and a 1.52 WHIP.
- Velasquez, 25.5: 15 Gms., 72 Inn., 2-7, a 5.13 ERA, a 5.49 FIP, a 4.56 xFIP, a 4.70 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.50 WHIP.
Lively, almost 26:
- Phillies: 15 Gms., 88 2/3 Inn., 4-7, a 4.26 ERA, a 4.97 FIP, a 5.58 xFIP, a 5.27 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.29 WHIP.
- AAA: 16 Gms., 97 Inn., 7-5, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, a 3.97 xFIP and a 1.16 WHIP.
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Eflin, 23.5:
- Phillies: 11 Gms., 64 1/3 Inn., 1-5, a 6.16 ERA, a 6.10 FIP, a 5.21 xFIP, a 5.08 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
- AAA 8 Gms., 7 Starts, 43 1/3 Inn., 1-4, a 4.57 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 4.43 xFIP and a 1.45 WHIP.
Pivetta, almost 25:
- Phillies: 26 Gms., 133 Inn., 8-10, a 6.02 ERA, a 4.87 FIP, a 4.26 xFIP, a 4.32 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.51 WHIP.
- AAA: 5 Gms., 22 Inn., 5-0, a 1.41 ERA, a 1.71 FIP, a 2.85 xFIP and a 0.84 WHIP.
Thompson, almost 24:
- Phillies: 11 Gms., 8 Starts, 46 1/3 Inn., 3-2, a 3.88 ERA, a 5.92 FIP, a 5.54 xFIP, a 5.23 SIERA, a -0.1 fWAR and a 1.55 WHIP.
- AAA: 22 Gms., 118 1/3 Inn., 5-14, a 5.25 ERA, a 4.40 FIP, a 4.59 xFIP and a 1.55 WHIP.
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Eshelman, 23.5:
- AAA: 18 Gms., 121 Inn., 10-3, a 2.23 ERA, a 3.20 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP and a 0.94 WHIP.
- AA: 5 Gms., 29 Inn., 3-0, a 3.10 ERA, a 5.02 FIP, a 3.57 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.
Double-A pitching:
- De Los Santos, 22: 26 Gms., 24 Starts,150 Inn., 10-6, a 3.78 ERA, a 3.64 FIP, a 3.72 xFIP and a 1.19 WHIP.